How Does Mason Miller Fare When Pitching Three Days in a Row? ...Middle East

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How Does Mason Miller Fare When Pitching Three Days in a Row?

You may or may not recall that, once upon a time, the Cubs faced a hotshot young starting pitching prospect in his big league debut, which came after the youngster had thrown barely 30 innings in the minor leagues.

That prospect was, of course, Mason Miller, who went 4.1 innings of two-run ball against the Cubs on April 19, 2023, striking out five. I remember thinking he looked incredibly impressive, and it was more or less immediately clear why the A’s had brought him up so quickly despite the limited MLB experience. He was simply ready. What I understood a little less was why the A’s, after allowing him to make a handful of additional starts, were converting him permanently to relief later that year. It was such a quick conversion when he definitely showed promise as a starter, where he could have so much more value.

    Well, I think my question was answered in two ways: (1) Miller’s injury history and risks were simply far greater than your typical young starting prospect, and the A’s weren’t inclined to lose him for a season or two, given that (2) he could instantly be one of the most dominating relievers in recent memory.

    Obviously we’ve seen Miller do his thing for a little while now, including the last two games against the Cubs here in the Wild Card Series. He covered 1.2 innings yesterday, with all five outs coming by way of the strikeout, and the Cubs had absolutely nothing for him. We were left to cheer as loudly as we could when Miller so much as hit a batter. It appeared to be the only way the Cubs were getting a baserunner with Miller in the game.

    That said, given the reasons Miller was converted to relief in the first place, and given that he’d now thrown nearly 40 pitches between the first two games of this series, I had to ask: what’s Miller like when he pitches three days in row? After all, you have to assume the Padres are going to pull out all the stops in today’s win-or-go-home game, so that means Miller is coming in at some point.

    So, again, pitching three days in a row, does Miller’s performance wane at all?

    Well, we might just have to guess, because he’s done it just ONCE before in his big league career, earlier this season with the A’s. The good news is that it was one of his worst stretches of the year! … the bad news is that he actually was fine in the third game, with his performance in the first two games of that stretch actually being the rough ones. So, uh, not exactly any meaningful signal there.

    Miller has generally been given extra rest in his career, with back-to-backs relatively few and far between, and even when he has done it, he’s been fine (0.40 ERA, and .087/.241/.130 opponent slash line on zero days’ rest – yikes). The walk rate is SLIGHTLY elevated, but the sample is tiny. So I guess, the only takeaway here is that it’s possible Miller would be a tiny bit more wild today than you’d expect him to be with lots of rest? So – to the extent you can pull it off as a hitter when you’re facing 103 mph and one of the nastiest breakers you’ve ever seen – be a little more patient today, guys?

    Ultimately, the actual best way to beat Mason Miller is to not have to face him when you’re trailing in the game. So, then, while old friend Yu Darvish is in the game, that’s gotta be the time to score.

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