We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at Old Trafford with our Manchester United vs Sunderland prediction and preview. Can the Black Cats trip up a stumbling United?
Man Utd vs Sunderland: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester United the pre-match favourites, with 59.7% of its simulations seeing them defeat Sunderland on Saturday. Sunderland have won just two of their last 30 league meetings against Man Utd. This will be Ruben Amorim’s 50th game in charge of Man Utd in all competitions. Could it be his last?Every match is a big match when you’re manager of Manchester United. The expectations are too great for that not to be the case, even when hosting a newly-promoted side at Old Trafford.
The game against Sunderland on Saturday feels particularly huge for Ruben Amorim, though. While there has been no indication that the powers that be at United are looking to dispense with his services despite the team’s poor form, international breaks are notorious times for such decisions to be made. It will be a long two weeks until their next game for the Red Devils if they suffer defeat here.
One club-specific omen is not on their side either. This match brings up Amorim’s half century of games in charge of United in all competitions, with none of the last five men who reached this landmark winning their 50th match.
The quirky nature of football means the struggling manager will probably win where David Moyes, Louis van Gaal, José Mourinho, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Erik ten Hag all failed.
Amorim may have other more recent trivia against him too. United have won their last two home Premier League matches, as many as in their previous nine combined at Old Trafford. However, the Red Devils are looking for three consecutive home wins for the first time since winning eight in a row between April and August 2023. What was once a fortress has been anything but in the last two years.
Having had the best opening six games for a newly-promoted side since West Ham in 2012, Sunderland will fancy their chances of a rare win in Manchester. They have won just one out of 29 away Premier League matches against the two clubs in the city, though.
With just four draws to accompany that victory, their points-per-game average of 0.24 is the worst of any side to play more than 15 away games against United and Manchester City. Manager Régis Le Bris’ hopes of improving that poor record are not aided by being without up to six players.
Aji Alese looks the closest to returning as things stand. Dennis Cirkin, Leo Hjelde and Romaine Mundle should be back after the international break, but Habib Diarra is a longer-term absentee. Sunderland will also be without Reinildo due to suspension.
At least they will have Granit Xhaka available. He has assisted each of Sunderland’s last three Premier League goals, with Chris Waddle the only Black Cats player to assist four in a row back in 1997. Xhaka also set up a goal when he last faced United in January 2023, so has history on his side.
United’s squad is in better shape at present. Casemiro will be able to return from suspension, while Amad Diallo may be involved too. Lisandro Martínez and Noussair Mazraoui should be the only two players who definitely miss out.
Amorim will hope Bruno Fernandes will be at his inspirational best. The United captain has five goals and six assists in his last nine matches against promoted opponents, but his two penalty misses in the Premier League this season at Fulham and Brentford have proved costly for his side.
Fernandes is also responsible for the most line-breaking passes leading to a shot in the Premier League this season (9), while no player has been as heavily involved in their team’s open-play shots this season than he has (37).
Benjamin Sesko is one player who should be able to take advantage of this skill. His goal at Brentford last time out means it may not happen here though. Sesko hasn’t scored in consecutive league appearances since December/January last season, so has struggled to follow up one productive performance with another in 2025.
The promoted clubs look to be made of sterner stuff in 2025-26 than in the preceding two seasons. If Sunderland pick up a point here, they will equal Southampton’s total of 12 from the entirety of 2024-25. While United should win, you certainly can’t rule out a positive result for the visitors.
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Man Utd vs Sunderland Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record favours Manchester United far more than the respective form of themselves and Sunderland in 2025-26.
United have lost just two of their last 30 league games against Sunderland (winning 22), with this their first since a 3-0 win in April 2017. Their record for avoiding defeat at Old Trafford is even stronger.
Across all competitions, Sunderland have managed to win just one of their last 31 away games against United, winning 1-0 in May 2014 thanks to a Sebastian Larsson goal.
The Black Cats have only visited Old Trafford three times since then but have as many red cards as goals across the three defeats they suffered (one).
Man Utd vs Sunderland Prediction
Manchester United are strong favourites for this match. The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations as always, with the Red Devils picking up three points in 59.7% of them.
It found that a draw (21.1%) was slightly more likely than a win for Sunderland (19.2%). However, it’s worth noting that United were rated as 67.9% pre-match favourites when hosting another promoted side recently.
While they did beat Burnley 3-2, they needed a 96th-minute penalty to do so. United’s form is so patchy it can even threaten the predictive powers of the supercomputer.
Man Utd vs Sunderland Predicted Lineups
Manchester United: Altay Bayindir, Matthijs de Ligt, Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Amad Diallo, Patrick Dorgu, Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko.
Head coach: Ruben Amorim
Sunderland: Robin Roefs, Trai Hume, Nordi Mukiele, Omar Alderete, Arthur Masuaku, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Chemsdine Talbi, Chris Rigg, Simon Adingra, Wilson Isidor.
Head coach: Régis Le Bris
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The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend at Old Trafford, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Man Utd vs Sunderland Prediction: Ruben Amorim Hoping to Celebrate 50th Game With a Win Opta Analyst.
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