The universal welcome which has greeted Donald Trump’s peace proposal to end the two-year conflict in Gaza is a measure of the horror felt worldwide at what a UN Commission of Inquiry described as a deliberate genocide of Palestinians by Israel.
But the relief expressed by national leaders at the proposals may be largely wishful thinking because it supposes that the Trump plan is more than a skeleton framework unlikely to be realised in full or even partially.
The White House has released a 20-point document calling for an immediate ceasefire, an exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, delivery of food aid, a staged Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, disarmament of Hamas and a transitional government led by an international body.
At a White House press conference standing beside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said, “that if we work together, we can bring an end to the death and destruction that we’ve seen for so many years, decades, even centuries.” In practice, nothing is less likely.
Netanyahu said that the plan “will bring back to Israel all our hostages, dismantle Hamas’ military capabilities, end its political rule, and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.” But Netanyahu has a dubious track record established during two previous ceasefires of cherry picking what he likes from a ceasefire deal – and then resuming the military assault on Gaza.
Hamas, which was excluded from the negotiations for the plan, says it is now considering it “in good faith”. It will likely seek to obtain crucial details on the extent and timing of an Israel Defence Forces (IDF) withdrawal. Its chief bargaining card is the estimated 20 live and 28 dead Israeli hostages, seized during the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In return for their release, Israel would simultaneously free 250 Palestinians serving life sentences and 1,700 other Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
The freeing of the hostages is a politically crucial gain for Netanyahu since their families have been at the forefront of demands to end the war. Netanyahu would be able to portray their release as proof that he had won a complete victory not only in Gaza but in the regional conflicts which have stemmed from it.
Palestinians in Gaza – and not just Hamas – will want assurances that Netanyahu does not simply bank the release of Israeli hostages and prevent the return of Palestinians to parts of Gaza which they have been ordered to leave by the IDF. They will suspect that not very far down the road, Netanyahu will find some excuse to end a ceasefire and resume military operations. Some 66,000 Palestinians have been killed so far during the conflict, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. A leaked Israeli military intelligence report in May estimated that only 17 per cent of fatalities belonged to Hamas and 83 per cent were civilians.
“What is important is that the war must end,” writes journalist Amos Harel in the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz. “For a long time – certainly since Netanyahu made the political decision to violate the cease-fire and return to fighting in March – a futile war has been waged in the Gaza Strip.”
Netanyahu is under strong pressure from the US and internationally to end the war. The UK, France and many other states recognised a Palestinian state this month, though Palestinians say that this means nothing if they continue to be targeted by the IDF and Israeli settlers in Gaza and the West Bank.
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Speculation about the future role of Sir Tony Blair in any international administration in Gaza is premature since many of the proposals in the Trump plan remain vague, leaving Netanyahu with much wiggle room if he wants to evade them.
Drafted by Trump’s all-purpose diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law and first-term Middle East adviser, Jared Kushner, the peace settlement deal looks vague and amateur – and its later phases may never happen. These include the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces, Gaza’s redevelopment, and a role for the Palestinian Authority once it has reformed itself. The US would work with Arab partners to develop a security force.
Hamas would be entirely excluded from the government of Gaza, which would instead be run by a technocratic Palestinian committee responsible for day-to-day services, overseen by an international “Board of Peace” chaired by Trump himself. It would include Blair, whose enthusiasm for personal engagement in the Middle East as a compliant ally of the US is undimmed by his disastrous experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq. British involvement in the invasion and occupation of Iraq did much to discredit Blair and bring an end to his premiership.
Much depends on Netanyahu’s calculations about the durability of his own coalition Government, which might lose some of its most extreme messianic ethno-nationalist members. This would leave Netanyahu with the option of constructing a new coalition, which might not be too difficult, or having a general election earlier than its due date next year. The likelihood is that he would go for the first option.
Israel is in a peculiar position of having had great successes exclusively through military force from Gaza to Tehran and Damascus to Sanaa. It has established its military supremacy in the region, able to bomb whoever and wherever it wants, a recent target being staunch US ally Qatar. As so often in the past, however, Israel is finding it difficult to turn military strength into long-term political power.
Israel is both strong and fragile at the same time. For all its military dominance, much of the world regards it as a pariah or rogue state. It is ever more dependent on political, diplomatic and military backing from the US. It has received unprecedented support from Trump, but his behaviour is even more erratic and unhinged. He claims that his peace plan will usher in a century of peace in the region, but, in reality, it guarantees a future full of hatred and war.
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