Chelsea are made favourites by the Opta supercomputer when they host Benfica in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday. Look ahead to the game at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Benfica prediction and preview.
Chelsea vs Benfica: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer rates Chelsea as the clear favourites for this UCL clash with a 56.8% win probability to Benfica’s 21.1%. José Mourinho has won just four of his 14 matches against former club Chelsea. Benfica have failed to win any of their past eight games against English teams.José Mourinho will make his latest return to Chelsea when Benfica visit Stamford Bridge for Matchday 2 of the Champions League on Tuesday.
The Portuguese won three Premier League titles across two spells as manager with the Blues, while also lifting the EFL Cup on three occasions and the FA Cup in 2007.
Mourinho began his coaching career with Benfica and was re-appointed at Estádio da Luz earlier this month when Bruno Lage paid the price for a shock defeat to Qarabag in their Champions League opener.
The 62-year-old has faced his former employers on 14 occasions across all competitions, but has emerged victorious in only four of those games (D3 L7). Indeed, Mourinho has failed to triumph in any of the previous seven and last came out on the winning side in February 2018 when his Manchester United team were 2-1 winners over Chelsea in the Premier League.
Mourinho did celebrate victory on his first return to Stamford Bridge with Inter back in March 2010 but has since failed to win in each of his six away games there (D2 L4).
Recent history is against the Portuguese giants, who are winless in their previous eight meetings with English teams (D3 L5) – their last such victory occurred a decade ago in a 3-1 success over Tottenham in the UEFA Europa League. Moreover, they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their past 18 games against English teams.
Their shock 3-2 home defeat to Qarabag on MD1 saw Benfica surrender a two-goal lead. There have been four instances in 2025 of a team losing a Champions League game having held such an advantage, with Benfica accounting for two of those after they were beaten 5-4 by Barcelona in January.
Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca will be looking for a Champions League pick-me-up, with their only win in their last five games in all competitions coming against Lincoln City in the EFL Cup, and even then they had to recover from a goal down to beat the League One side 2-1 last week.
Saturday’s 3-1 home loss to Brighton means they have now failed to win three straight Premier League games (D1 L2), while their Champions League campaign began with a 3-1 defeat at Bayern Munich.
That Bayern setback means Chelsea are on their longest-ever losing streak in the competition (three games), though they have not lost a home game in the group/league phase of the Champions League since September 2019 (a 1-0 defeat to Valencia), picking up seven wins and four draws since then.
Tuesday’s contest will mark the first meeting between the sides in the group/league phase of European competition, with each of their previous four encounters coming in knockout stages, the most recent of which took place at the Club World Cup three months ago, which Chelsea won 4-1 after extra-time.
The hosts will be without talisman Cole Palmer, scorer of their only goal against Bayern, to add to an injury list that includes Liam Delap, Levi Colwill and Tosin Adarabioyo.
Benfica, meanwhile, remain without winger Bruma, who is sidelined with an Achilles tendon injury.
Chelsea vs Benfica Head-to-Head
Chelsea may be out of sorts right now, but they can take heart from the fact they have an excellent record against Benfica.
The Blues have emerged triumphant in all four of the competitive fixtures they have played against the Portuguese outfit – including the aforementioned 4-1 extra-time victory in the last-16 of the Club World Cup.
Moreover, they have done so with an aggregate scoreline of 9-3.
Chelsea vs Benfica Prediction
Chelsea are rated as the overwhelming favourites, with the Opta supercomputer ranking their chances of victory at 56.8%.
Benfica, meanwhile, have a win probability of 21.1%, with the draw slated as a slightly likelier 22.1%.
Chelsea vs Benfica Predicted Lineups
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Josh Acheampong, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Moisés Caicedo, Andrey Santos, Enzo Fernández, Estêvão, Pedro Neto, Tyrique George.
Head Coach: Enzo Maresca
Benfica: Anatoliy Trubin, Amar Dedic, António Silva, Nicolás Otamendi, Samuel Dahl, Richard Ríos, Enzo Barrenechea, Fredrik Aursnes, Heorhii Sudakov, Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis.
Head Coach: José Mourinho
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday night at Stamford Bridge, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Chelsea vs Benfica Prediction: Will José Mourinho Return to Haunt Blues? Opta Analyst.
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