We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at St James’ Park with our Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Can the Gunners keep pace with leaders Liverpool?
Newcastle vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal the edge ahead of Sunday’s late kick-off, with the Gunners assigned a 44.6% win probability to Newcastle United’s 30.4%. However, under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have only lost more away games at Manchester City in all competitions (five) than they have away to Newcastle (four). Newcastle have won just one of their last seven Premier League games (D3 L3), a run that started with a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal. They have failed to score in five of those seven games, as many times as they had in their previous 41 league games.St James’ Park has not been a happy hunting ground for Arsenal lately, but Mikel Arteta’s men go to Tyneside on Sunday in need of three points.
Gabriel Martinelli‘s stoppage-time equaliser salvaged a point for the Gunners in last week’s 1-1 draw with Manchester City, sparing them another defeat to a potential title rival, following August’s loss at Liverpool.
But that result left them five points behind defending Premier League champions Liverpool in the early-season standings, giving Sunday’s game even greater importance.
Newcastle have won their last three home games against Arsenal, two in the Premier League and one in last season’s EFL Cup semi-final, without conceding a single goal.
And if we can take anything from both teams’ respective starts to the campaign, another tight affair could be in store this weekend.
Arteta’s decision to leave Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka on the bench for last week’s clash with City at the Emirates Stadium was criticised in some quarters, though the Spaniard subsequently pushed back at accusations that he is too conservative in the biggest games.
The Gunners went into half-time in that match 1-0 down and having only registered 0.32 xG and one shot on target. Eze and Saka were introduced at the break, and though their tally of 0.56 xG in the second half was only a marginal improvement, it was Eze’s sumptuous ball over the top that teed up Martinelli’s equaliser.
That made Eze just the second Arsenal player to provide an assist in both of his first two Premier League home games, after Sead Kolasinac in August and September 2017. The former Crystal Palace man then followed that up with his first goal for the club, netting the opener in Wednesday’s 2-0 League Cup win over Port Vale.
With Saka also getting over an hour under his belt in midweek after recovering from a hamstring issue, both will surely start in support of Viktor Gyökeres on Sunday.
Since the start of last season, only five players have scored at least five goals, supplied at least 10 assists, created at least 50 chances and teed up at least 40 chances from open play. Eze and Saka are both among them, alongside Mohamed Salah, Bruno Fernandes and Morgan Rogers.
With 54 goals and 45 assists, Saka is one goal involvement away from becoming the eighth player to reach 100 goal contributions for Arsenal in the Premier League. Aged 24 years and 23 days on the day of Sunday’s game, he could become the second-youngest player to reach this milestone for the club, after Cesc Fàbregas in 2010 (23 years, 237 days).
And though Arsenal remain as strong at the back as ever, boosted by last week’s return for William Saliba, Arteta may need the England duo to inject a spark of creativity.
Arsenal rank sixth for expected goals (7.39 xG) in the Premier League this season, but of that figure, only 3.1 xG has come from open play.
That is a lower figure than the 3.7 open-play xG created by pointless Wolves through their first four matches, and it ranks the Gunners a lowly 13th in the league. Newcastle, for their part, have only managed 3.0 open-play xG.
The Magpies have failed to score in three of their five Premier League games this campaign, and a period of adaptation up front is hardly surprising following the British record sale of Alexander Isak, with newly signed Yoane Wissa also going down injured during the international break.
Nick Woltemade did mark his debut with the winning goal against Wolves two weeks ago, but he was ineffective in last week’s goalless draw at Bournemouth, failing to register a single shot from his four touches in the Cherries’ penalty area.
Newcastle need to offer the German more support on Sunday, and the return of Anthony Gordon, who has served a three-match ban following his red card against Liverpool, should help. Gordon was on target in a 2-1 Champions League defeat to Barcelona last week, and he scored a memorable – and controversial – winner against Arsenal two years ago.
However, only David Brooks (11) has had more shots without scoring than Gordon (10) in the Premier League this season, with the Newcastle man also one of five players to record over 1.0 expected goals (xG) without netting (1.1), despite missing three of Newcastle’s five games.
At the other end, Newcastle have allowed the fewest expected goals against (2.55 xGA) in the Premier League this season, with Arsenal ranking second (3.28). The Magpies have also faced the fewest shots (37) and the third-fewest shots on target (13), while registering a league-high four clean sheets. Liverpool are the only team to breach their defence in the league this term.
Newcastle vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Overall, Arsenal have lost four away games against Newcastle in all competitions under Arteta. Only against Man City (five) have they suffered more defeats on the road during his reign.
And all four of those defeats have proven particularly costly. In May 2022, Arsenal were chasing Champions League qualification when they lost 2-0 at St James’ Park, and they ultimately finished just two points behind fourth-placed Tottenham at the end of 2021-22.
They then suffered 1-0 defeats at Newcastle in both November 2023 and November 2024 before finishing as Premier League runners-up in both campaigns. In 2023-24, when Gordon’s contentious strike settled things in this fixture, Arsenal ended up just two points away from winning the title.
And in February, they were beaten 2-0 by Howe’s men in the second leg of a League Cup semi-final tie, with Newcastle going on to win the competition and end their 70-year wait for a major domestic trophy.
Newcastle could now extend their run to four straight home wins against Arsenal for the first time since August 1969, though the Gunners are at least on a decent run away from the Emirates.
They have only lost one of their last 16 away games in the Premier League (eight wins, seven draws), going down to a Dominik Szoboszlai free-kick against Liverpool on their most recent road trip.
Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites ahead of Sunday’s game, emerging victorious in 46.1% of our 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Newcastle are given just a 29.3% win probability, with the remaining 24.6% of simulations ending level.
In the supercomputer’s latest season predictions, Arsenal are given a 23.4% chance of winning the title, compared to Liverpool’s 59.5%.
Newcastle are assigned a 20.5% chance of making the top four, though fifth and sixth (both a 9.6% probability) are viewed as their most likely final positions.
Newcastle vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Newcastle: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Tino Livramento, Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, Joelinton, Anthony Elanga, Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade.
Head coach: Eddie Howe
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyökeres.
Manager: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday afternoon, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction: Can Mikel Arteta End St James’ Park Hoodoo? Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about newcastle vs arsenal prediction can mikel arteta end st james park hoodoo was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction: Can Mikel Arteta End St James’ Park Hoodoo? )
Also on site :
- Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky awaits Putin response to new peace plan while Christmas Eve blast kills 3 in Moscow
- JCPenney Has a 'Stunning' White Sapphire Jewelry Set on Sale for Just $16, and It's Perfect for Every Occasion
- China's First Domestic Anti-CTLA-4 Monoclonal Antibody, Innovent's TABOSUN® (Ipilimumab N01 Injection) Received NMPA Approval