Can lower interest rates revive the ailing job market in Southern California’s real estate-related industries?
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed state job data for Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties and found that bosses in local property-linked sectors employed 714,900 in August, which is 24,100 fewer than in the same month a year ago, representing a 3% drop. These job statistics, which are not adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, do not include the numerous self-employed workers in the real estate sector.
Local property-linked work tracked by this math is down 46,800 positions, or 6%, since the post-Great Recession high of 761,700 was set in July 2022. Earlier that year, the Federal Reserve ended its pandemic-era support for the real estate market, including its easy-money policy and large purchases of mortgage-backed securities.
As a result, demand for local property-linked jobs — equal to 9% of Southern California’s 7.98 million workers — slipped with higher financing costs trimming everything from construction to making mortgages to purchases of building materials.
Three years ago, the Fed was fighting surging inflation. In 2025, the challenge is a struggling economy.
On Sept. 17, the Fed made its first rate cut of 2025, with hints that more are to come. Lowered borrowing costs could pump up local real estate employment.
Staffing across all Southern California industries was up 51,400 in the year ended in August, but the four-county region added 71,600 jobs in the previous 12 months.
By the slice
Look at job cuts in key segments of real estate-tied employment, as of August.
Construction: 359,800 workers, off 16,400 in a year, a 4% drop. It’s 20,200 jobs below the 380,000 post-Great Recession high of October 2023 – that’s a 5% slide.
Lending: 83,500 workers, off 1,900 in a year, a 2% drop. It’s 41,400 jobs below the 124,900 high of December 2012 — that’s a 33% tumble.
Real estate services: 114,500 workers, off 2,900 in a year, a 2% drop. It’s 7,600 below the 122,100 high of December 2022 – that’s a 5% decline.
Building supplies: 49,600 workers, off 1,100 in a year, a 2% drop. It’s 6,400 below the June 2021 high of 56,000 — that’s an 11% slip.
Building services: 107,500 workers, off 1,800 in a year, a 2% drop. It’s 1,800 below the August 2024 high of 109,300 — that’s a 1.7% dip.
Geographically speaking
Property-linked cuts were felt in all of the region’s big labor markets, as of August …
Los Angeles County: 330,800 real estate-linked workers — off 10,100 in a year, a 3% drop. It’s 24,600 below February 2020’s post-Great Recession high of 355,400 — down 7%.
Orange County: 210,600 workers — off 5,600 in a year, a 3% drop. It’s 19,800 below August 2018’s high of 230,400 — off 9%.
Inland Empire: 173,500 workers — off 8,400 in a year, a 5% drop. It’s also 11,400 below July 2022’s high of 184,900 — a 6% decrease.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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