Fears are growing of an escalation of war in Europe after three Russian fighter jets strayed into Nato airspace in a “brazen provocation” by Vladimir Putin.
In the latest violation of Nato’s eastern flank, the MiG-31 aircraft strayed into Estonian airspace on Friday and remained there for 12 minutes before being intercepted by Italian jets.
Experts said that the nature of the incident was now clearly part of a broader pattern and suggested that Vladimir Putin had become emboldened by the apparent hesitation of Donald Trump during this week’s state visit to impose fresh sanctions on Russia over Ukraine.
The length of time spent over Estonia, and the fact that the aircraft were manned rather than drones, as with the previous incidents over Poland and Romania, mark a worrying escalation in Russian activity over Nato airspace. It is the third incursion by Russia into Nato airspace in a month.
Natia Seskuria, associate fellow in international security for RUSI, said it appeared that Putin was sending a message that “he does not dismiss the possibility of escalating the conflict into NATO’s eastern flank”.
At a press conference with Sir Keir Starmer at Chequers to mark the end of the US-UK state visit on Thursday, the US president said Putin had “let me down” over trying to end the war in Ukraine, after their summit in Alaska last month.
But he stopped short of threatening fresh sanctions against Moscow, instead criticising some European nations for continuing to buy oil from Russia.
In a separate incident on Friday, it was reported that two Russian fighter jets performed a low pass over a Polish oil and gas company in the Baltic.
The incident in Estonia comes just over a week after more than 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace on the night of September 9-10, prompting Nato jets to down some of them and Western officials to say Russia was testing the alliance’s readiness and resolve.
Tallinn said on Friday the three MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace without permission and stayed there for a total of 12 minutes.
“Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times already this year, which is unacceptable in itself, but today’s violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen,” said Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna.
“Russia’s ever-increasing testing of borders and aggressiveness must be responded to by rapidly strengthening political and economic pressure.”
Estonia said it had made a protest to the top Russian diplomat in the country.
The fact that the incursion featured crewed aircraft, who were believed to have had their transponders off, is seen as even more provocative than the recent drones that violated Polish and Romanian airspace.
It was also an incursion that lasted 12 minutes before it was intercepted by Italian jets on behalf of Nato, rather than just a brief straying across the border, as has happened in the previous incidents this year.
Russian jets have been known to stray into Estonian airspace as a shortcut back into Russia but enter and leave quickly.
Seskuria of RUSI said: “The recent violation of Estonian airspace by Russian fighter jets looks like a deliberate provocation, occurring just days after incursions by Russian drones into Polish and Romanian airspace.
“This is not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern – one that suggests Moscow is actively testing the resolve of Nato and probing the limits of the Alliance’s willingness to defend its eastern flank.
“These escalatory actions point to a calculated strategy by the Kremlin to challenge Western unity and deterrence, especially in the face of what it perceives as wavering or inconsistent responses. Vladimir Putin, in particular, seems increasingly emboldened by the apparent hesitation from President Trump to impose heavy consequences on Russia in response to Russian efforts to derail peace negotiations.
“Through a series of calculated provocations, President Putin is signaling that he does not dismiss the possibility of escalating the conflict into Nato’s eastern flank. By doing so, Russia seeks to exert pressure on the West to concede to its demands regarding Ukraine.”
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the UK “stands with” Estonia, and described the move as “yet another reckless incursion into Nato airspace by Russia”.
She said: “We must continue to increase pressure on Putin, including driving forward the important new economic sanctions announced by the UK and EU in recent days.”
EU’s foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas, a former prime minister of Estonia, said: “Today’s violation of Estonia’s airspace by Russian military aircraft is an extremely dangerous provocation.
“This marks the third such violation of EU airspace in days and further escalates tensions in the region.
“The EU stands in full solidarity with Estonia. I am in close contact with the Estonian government.
“We will continue to support our member states in strengthening their defences with European resources. Putin is testing the West’s resolve. We must not show weakness.”
A Nato spokesperson: “Earlier today, Russian jets violated Estonian airspace. Nato responded immediately and intercepted the Russian aircraft. This is yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and Nato’s ability to respond.”
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