Where will the hotly-anticipated Premier League clash between Arsenal and Manchester City be decided? We take a look at five key areas that could prove crucial on Sunday at the Emirates Stadium.
We have already had some big games in the Premier League this season, and we’re set for another on Sunday afternoon as Arsenal host Manchester City at the Emirates Stadium.
Mikel Arteta’s men have won three from four in the league (L1), and will be hoping to get their second win of the campaign against a Manchester side after defeating Manchester United at Old Trafford on the opening weekend of 2025-26.
City did not start particularly well, losing two of their first three league games (W1), but they bounced back with their own victory over United last Sunday, while both teams come into this game off the back of comfortable wins on Matchday 1 of the UEFA Champions League this week.
Who will come out on top here? We’ve picked out five key areas that could decide it.
Could Rodri Be Targeted?
It might sound a bit daft to frame the reigning Ballon d’Or holder as a potential weak link in the Manchester City team; we understand that, but hear us out.
In last Sunday’s 3-0 win over United in the Manchester derby, for a while City weren’t quite as comfortable as the scoreline suggests, and there were moments Rodri looked slightly off the pace.
Of course, that isn’t necessarily a surprise. His 2024-25 season was decimated by injury and so it’s only natural for him to still be a little rusty. But that doesn’t mean teams shouldn’t potentially be looking to exploit any apparent weakness.
There were several instances where Rodri was suffocated by the pressure he was put under by his United counterparts, either giving the ball away or getting robbed.
Rodri’s pass completion rate against United was 82.5%. That’s not horrendous, of course, but it is highly irregular for him.
In all competitions, he’d only ever completed a lower percentage of his passes in a single game (8+ passes) on four occasions for City – in the Premier League specifically, that was his second-poorest completion rate ever (79.7% vs Brighton in October 2022).
The pressure exerted on him by United undoubtedly played a part, with the Spaniard completing just 73.7% of his passes under high pressure. Going back to the start of the 2022-23 season, Rodri had never completed a lower proportion of passes under high pressure (4+ passes under high pressure) in a Premier League game.
Whether this was a deliberate ploy by United is unclear and in the long run, it didn’t exactly yield a great deal for them. But Arsenal are a far more accomplished team with a stronger and tighter midfield than Ruben Amorim’s side; if anyone has the tools to unsettle Rodri and capitalise, it’s Arsenal.
Arsenal’s Defensive Steel
It won’t have escaped your attention that Mikel Arteta can set up rather defensively in games at times.
That said, his Arsenal side did wallop Man City 5-1 in this fixture last season. The xG from that game did suggest the Gunners were somewhat fortunate to win by such a comfortable margin (1.00-0.81), but it also went to show what can happen if you build from a solid defensive base.
Arsenal had the best defensive record in the Premier League last season, conceding just 31 goals, while they also had the lowest xG against (35.1).
To see how they fared in big games, we can look at a mini league of teams who finished in the top six last season. From games between those six, Arsenal conceded the lowest xG total (12.8), ahead of Newcastle (13.1), Liverpool (13.5), Man City (14.2), Chelsea (15.5) and Aston Villa (16.8).
The Gunners also have the second lowest xG against after four games this season (2.4) behind only Newcastle (2.1). The only goal they have conceded was Dominik Szoboszlai’s thunderbolt free-kick in the 1-0 defeat at Liverpool.
Arsenal are the only Premier League team yet to allow a single big chance in 2025-26 – defined by Opta as a chance from which the attacking team would be expected to score – with every other side facing at least four.
As mentioned, they allowed conceded just 0.81 xG in their home win over City last season, but perhaps more impressive was conceding just 2.18 xG in the reverse fixture almost exactly a year ago. Yes, that is a larger number, but Arsenal were reduced to 10 men just before half-time at the Etihad Stadium when Leandro Trossard was sent off.
It ultimately led to City having to spend more time in a build-up against a low block than any team in any Premier League game last season (1,453 seconds, or just over 24 minutes), requiring a stoppage-time John Stones goal to rescue a 2-2 draw.
That was an extreme example, but Arsenal did utilise a low block plenty last season. In fact, only Brentford, Southampton and Ipswich Town did so more in the Premier League.
However they approach Sunday’s game, Pep Guardiola’s men will have their work cut out finding a way through.
Hope from Haaland
One man who will always back himself to find a way to goal is Erling Haaland. The Man City striker has made an explosive start to the season, scoring six goals in five games in all competitions, and five in four in the Premier League.
He’s been well worth those goals too. Haaland has attempted 19 shots, at least seven more than any other player in England’s top flight, and his individual xG of 5.74 is more than twice as much as anyone else, ahead of Antoine Semenyo (2.67) in second place.
Haaland went away on international duty the other week and continued his form, smashing five goals past Moldova in Norway’s remarkable 11-1 win in World Cup qualifying.
He also found the net in City’s 2-0 victory over Napoli in the Champions League on Thursday, making him the fastest player to reach 50 goals in the competition by at least 13 games, doing so in just 49 appearances.
On Sunday, though, as discussed, he will come up against arguably the stingiest defence in Europe.
Haaland has scored four goals in eight games against Arsenal since joining City in 2022, attempting 22 shots in total and with an xG of 3.8. His xG per game against Arsenal is therefore 0.48. Of teams he has played at least three times against in all competitions for City, he only has a lower xG per game against Newcastle (0.38), Aston Villa (0.44) and Liverpool (0.45).
He scored two of City’s three goals against Arsenal last season, and will be hoping to add to that at the Emirates on Sunday.
Dribblers to the Fore
High-volume dribblers haven’t always been a key commodity in the teams of Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta, both of whom have put great emphasis on positional discipline in their respective coaching careers.
But Guardiola has appeared to change somewhat in the past couple of years, seemingly placing greater importance on wide players who frequently look to disrupt opposition defences with their dribbling ability – namely Savinho, Oscar Bobb and, most pertinently, Jérémy Doku.
Arsenal seem to have followed a similar pattern with the summer arrivals of Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke. While the former isn’t merely a wide player, he’s likely to spend most of his time at the Gunners playing from the left, and he’s someone who likes to beat his man.
Last weekend, six players attempted seven or more take-ons (defined as an attacking player attempting to move around an opponent while in possession) in the Premier League: Madueke (9), Doku (8) and Eze (7) were all among them.
Of course, this can be influenced by the teams they’re facing, but anyone familiar with these players will recognise this as a key element of their respective skillsets.
The chart below very much makes that point clear, particularly with respect to Doku.
The Belgian sometimes divides opinion as he’s been criticised in the past for his decision making and/or final pass. But across the first four matchdays of the season, his seven chances created is more than any other City player, while only Jack Grealish (4) and João Pedro (3) can better Doku’s two assists across the whole league.
Both of those came against United in last weekend’s derby, the first of which followed a brilliant shimmy that saw him breeze between Luke Shaw and Patrick Dorgu before teeing up Phil Foden at the second bite of the cherry.
He also scored a fine goal following a dribble against Napoli in the Champions League on Thursday.
Madueke also hasn’t been immune from criticism during his time in the Premier League, but he’s looked sharp over the early weeks of his Arsenal career and was the best player on the pitch in last weekend’s win over Nottingham Forest.
There’s a reasonable chance that this bunch have a decisive impact on Sunday as well.
Top Stoppers
In David Raya and Gianluigi Donnarumma, Sunday’s game will see two of the best shot-stoppers in Europe.
The Spaniard kept 13 clean sheets in the Premier League last season, no goalkeeper managed more, while he has only conceded once in five games in all competitions this season. In the Premier League, of goalkeepers to have played more than once, only Tottenham’s Guglielmo Vicario (94.4%) has a better save percentage than Raya (91.7%).
Donnarumma has made a promising start to life at City after his move from Paris Saint-Germain a few weeks ago. He is yet to concede after two games, though has only been called on to make three saves on total. That included a spectacular stop to deny Bryan Mbeumo in the Manchester derby on his debut last Sunday.
Guardiola will hope the big Italian will have a better afternoon than Stefan Ortega had in this fixture last season. Ortega conceded five times from just seven shots on target against at the Emirates as Arsenal humbled the visitors in February.
As we recently analysed, the big question mark around Donnarumma at City will be his suitability for their preferred style of playing out from the back, but he has surely chiefly been signed for his shot stopping.
His stellar reputation was improved further by his outstanding performances in PSG’s run to eventually lifting the Champions League last season, making vital saves in knockout wins over three Premier League opponents in Liverpool, Aston Villa and indeed, Arsenal.
However, Raya (76.9%) actually ended the competition with a better save percentage than Donnarumma (71.4%), while he also kept as many clean sheets (6) in two fewer appearances.
Both will likely be called upon to make big saves on Sunday, and whoever has the better game could ultimately decide which team walks away with what would be a massive three points.
Make sure you read our in-depth match preview for Arsenal vs Manchester City, featuring the Opta supercomputer pre-game prediction.
Click on the image below to read.
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