Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 8-4. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
The 129th Civil War, set for Saturday afternoon in Eugene, likely won’t be the last. Oregon and Oregon State are finalizing an agreement to continue the series into the next decade, according to a report by OregonLive.
The move is sure to upset a faction of Beavers constituents who believe the traitorous Ducks should be dropped from OSU’s schedule permanently. Some want no part of the school that helped blow up the Pac-12. Others are loath to sign up for annual blowouts.
Good thing the inmates aren’t in charge, because ending the rivalry would be pretty close to the worst move Oregon State could make during this tumultuous stretch.
The shifting landscape of college sports could very well leave the Beavers without the option to lure teams from the power conferences to Corvallis. It’s not Oregon-or-bust quite yet, but that point is fast approaching.
The SEC recently agreed to add a ninth conference game but kept in place the requirement to play a total of 10 games against Power Four schools, meaning each team has only two spots available for non-conference opponents outside the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten.
The likelihood any SEC team would be willing to travel to Corvallis? Close to zero. Don’t be surprised if Mississippi cancels its series with the Beavers (in 2027 and 2030), just as Florida reportedly has canceled its series with Arizona State and Alabama reached a mutual agreement with West Virginia to cancel their two-game tango.
Would Big Ten teams not named Oregon venture to Corvallis? Unlikely. They don’t want to risk the loss or deal with the travel, and many lack openings on the schedule.
That includes Washington. The Huskies budget for seven home games per season. When a rivalry (e.g., the Apple Cup) is part of the equation, there’s no room for another non-conference road game. The math doesn’t work.
What about ACC and Big 12 teams? Well, the Beavers have a two-game series with Brigham Young lined up, but one game is in Provo and the other is in Las Vegas.
Wake Forest is playing in Reser Stadium this year, with Oregon State headed to Tobacco Road at the end of the decade to complete what is only a two-game series. Will other ACC schools consider Oregon State? Not if the conference eventually follows the SEC’s lead and adds a ninth conference game.
Yes, the Beavers have Texas Tech, a Big 12 favorite, scheduled for Reser Stadium next season. But the two-game contract (2025-26) was agreed to seven years ago — long before conference realignment and playoff expansion.
And if the much-discussed crossover series between the Big Ten and SEC becomes reality, the ACC and Big 12 could respond by forming a deal of their own, further reducing the pool of power conference opponents for the Beavers.
Put another way: Oregon State faces a triple-whammy when it comes to luring power conference teams to Corvallis in the future. Yes, the schools must be willing to accept the competitive risk and give up a precious, lucrative home game. But it’s also about shrinking supply.
Oregon State’s home schedule won’t have nearly the appeal in the new Pac-12 than it did in the conference’s previous iteration, but the pressure to sell tickets and move merchandise and create an exciting game-day environment for fans is only increasing.
The Beavers should pounce on any opportunity to bring a high-profile opponent to Reser Stadium — even if that team is the enemy down the road.
To the picks …
Season record: 14-16-1 Five-star special: 2-1
Games involving FCS teams not included All times Pacific
Texas Tech (+3) at Utah Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox Comment: Gigantic conference opener for the two betting favorites to win the Big 12. How will Utah quarterback Devon Dampier fare in his first true test since transferring from New Mexico? We’re skeptical of his ability to make the downfield connections necessary for critical chunk yards. The Utes cannot win if forced to advance four yards at a time, possession after possession. Pick: Texas Tech
Oregon State (+35.5) at Oregon Kickoff: 12 p.m. on Big Ten Network Comment: Oregon will take every step necessary to win the game while not humiliating the Beavers — and thereby doing its part to help preserve Trent Bray’s job security. The Ducks don’t want OSU to make a coaching change; the current situation suits the folks in Eugene just fine. Pick: Oregon State
Michigan (-2.5) at Nebraska Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS Comment: The Wolverines were hardly impressive at Oklahoma two weeks ago. Granted, the Cornhuskers aren’t as good as the Sooners, but they are close enough for us to believe Nebraska will win the game outright and heap another load of pressure on Michigan coach Sherrone Moore. Pick: Nebraska
Brigham Young (-6.5) at East Carolina Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ESPN2 Comment: We had almost forgotten about BYU, which opened with blowout wins over Portland State and Stanford and was idle in Week 3. This is a dangerous assignment for the Cougars — not a true trap game, but close — and it’s reasonable to wonder if they will be fully locked in with conference play starting next week. Pick: East Carolina
Illinois (+5.5) at Indiana Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC Comment: Both teams are ranked, which explains NBC’s decision to slot the game in prime time, and one of them could emerge as a second-tier playoff contender behind the Big Ten heavyweights. Despite the location, we think that team will be the Illini. Pick: Illinois
Arizona State (+2.5) at Baylor Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on Fox Comment: The second intriguing Big 12 duel of Week 4 features two more teams with designs on the conference title. The Sun Devils’ previous road experience was suboptimal (a loss at Mississippi State), and they would be wise to avoid repeating their mistake: an over-reliance on the passing game. Establish the run early, and everything flows from there. Pick: Arizona State
Related Articles
The Apple Cup’s uncertain future: Shifting landscape offers no guarantees beyond 2028 Holy Score: Utah-Texas Tech: Devon Dampier, passing game key for Utes Bowl projections: Oregon to CFP, USC to Alamo, Utah drops to Las Vegas Cal has a quarterback phenom and a manageable schedule: GM Ron Rivera’s goal is within reach Power 4 rankings: SEC on top, ACC staggers, Big 12 overtakes Big TenWashington (-19.5) at Washington State Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS Comment: The second half of the Pacific Northwest Week 4 rivalry doubleheader should be more competitive than the matchup in Corvallis as long as the Cougars don’t commit a spate of turnovers. (They had five in the blowout loss at North Texas last weekend.) The Huskies have too much of everything, especially tailback Jonah Coleman, for this to be close in the fourth quarter. The revenge factor should send the margin well past the point spread. Pick: Washington
Cal (-12.5) at San Diego State Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network Comment: SDSU lost badly at Washington State two weeks ago but had extra time to prepare for Cal’s visit. If the undefeated Bears avoid turnovers and miscues on special teams, they should remain one of the breakout teams of the season. But that’s a few too many points for our liking — the Bears are always a risky pick as double-digit favorites. Pick: San Diego State
Michigan State (+18.5) at USC Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox Comment: The last time Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith was on the sideline in the Coliseum, his Oregon State Beavers walloped USC. We don’t expect another win for Smith over his hometown team, but the Spartans will provide plenty of resistance despite the ultra-late kickoff for their body clocks. Pick: Michigan State
Fresno State (-2.5) at Hawaii Kickoff: 8:59 p.m. on Spectrum Sports Comment: We expect Fresno State to emerge as the surprise team in the Mountain West and make a run at the conference title. They should handle their business in Honolulu and cover a spread that’s several points too low. The betting public hasn’t recognized the speed with which coach Matt Entz is rebuilding the program. Pick: Fresno State
Straight-up winners: Utah, Oregon, Nebraska, East Carolina, Illinois, Arizona State, Washington, Cal, USC and Fresno State
Five-star special: Michigan State. Quarterback Aidan Chiles is from Long Beach and will remind the Trojans why they should have recruited him. The point spread (18.5) is about 10 points too high.
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