Sometime last week, the whispers turned to grumbles. Then the grumbles became gossip. If this continues, they’ll turn into plotting and then things get really serious.
Labour MPs are now, for the first time, openly considering what would happen if they got rid of Keir Starmer as leader of the Labour Party and therefore Prime Minister. What was once unthinkable is now very much thinkable and indeed sayable to journalists after as little as half a pint.
It’s been a grim few weeks, the kind of sequenced failure that smells like political death. First Angela Rayner resigned as deputy prime minister after a standards investigation into her taxes. Then Peter Mandelson was sacked as ambassador to the US after his messages to the paedophile Jeffrey Epstein were revealed.
Then, on Saturday, the far-right marched in London: Perhaps 100,000 thugs and malcontents gathering to watch Tommy Robinson and Elon Musk talk about violence on the streets of the UK. “Violence is coming,” Musk said, “you either fight back or you die”. It was a uniquely perilous moment in British political history.
The 24 hours which followed were extremely painful for Labour supporters. First, the Government said nothing. Then business secretary Peter Kyle offered some passing criticism of a “small minority” who committed violence, but came close to actually praising the march, saying it showed “free speech… is alive and well”. Worse, he suggested it acted as a call to the Government to redouble their efforts on immigration, thereby actively rewarding them for threatening unrest.
It was a moment of silent horror, a sign that this Labour government could not rouse itself to criticise anti-immigrant sentiment, even when it was being expressed by figures like Robinson. It was an act of surrender.
Shortly afterwards, No 10 seemed to recognise the danger. Starmer released a strong statement against the march and Musk’s comments, as did women’s minister Jacqui Smith. But for many people it was too late. The Government was simultaneously incompetent and immoral. You can be one or the other in British politics, but you can’t be both.
Each day, the whispers therefore grew louder. Maybe Starmer’s just not up to it. Maybe he’s too politically empty, too lacking in principles, too incompetent, too uninspiring, too unlucky. Maybe a change of personnel would correct the damage.
It is correct that this simply can’t continue. The leadership needs to improve with urgency. But the idea that getting rid of Starmer would Labour’s problems is for the birds. It is an instinctive emotional response to a much more complicated set of problems.
The first issue with this solution is that it will not solve the underlying problem hurting Labour: the state of the economy. The basic fact is that the bond markets are at our throat. They are at the throat of many other countries too, but we simply do not have any room to manoeuvre. Rachel Reeves has increased spending by as much as she possibly could within a credible set of fiscal rules.
A new leadership team would be in precisely the same situation as she and Starmer are: with no more money to spend. If they reform the fiscal rules they’ll likely trigger a bond market panic. If they increase taxes they’ll anger voters. That is the devil’s choice which faces them and anyone else who sits in Downing Street. Replacing the driver before you’ve fixed the engine makes no sense – it simply condemns the newcomer to what undermined their predecessor.
The second issue is that there is no obvious successor. Many people are pinning their hopes on Andy Burnham, who – it’s true – could make an exceptional prime minister. But the sequence of events which would lead him to that position is very difficult to imagine.
First, he would have to get into parliament. This would require a by-election in a locked-in winnable Labour seat – a rare thing at the moment – and moves to prevent the Labour leadership from blocking his nomination, in what would be a very obvious attempt to take control. Even if that succeeded, he would be giving up the job of his life as Manchester mayor to sit as a backbencher, waiting and hoping for an opportunity which might never come. Then even if it did come, he would need to secure 80 MPs to trigger a leadership contest, let alone win it.
square IAN DUNT This Labour Government was supposed to be better. It isn't
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All of this would be taking place just over a year after Starmer had won a historic majority. It is now clear that he has proved much less impressive in the role than his admirers believed – myself included. But it would be an act of madness to remove him so soon after that result. It would recreate the worst years of Tory chaos and solipsism.
It is, for the moment, little more than fantasy. It is simply not going to happen in the near future. If things have not improved in a year or two, this option might become real. For now, it is simply a fevered daydream. The best case you can make for it is as a form of leverage to focus the mind of the leadership.
There is a practical immediate route to success. First, it involves taking the fight to the far right, rather than just echoing or placating them. Second, it involves competent government, delivering for people in a way the Tories failed to do and Reform never will.
Those who want this government to succeed would do better agitating for that approach than engaging in fantasies about leadership contests.
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