Despite her hopes of rebuilding the Tories into an election-winning superpower, Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party increasingly resembles the dying days of the Soviet Union: barely a day goes by without somebody defecting to the enemy. Almost all of the escaping Tories have jumped ship to Reform. With the defection of former health minister Maria Caulfield this week, 13 former Conservatives MPs are now known to have made the switch.
For many months, though, the Reform leadership has been working hard behind the scenes to land a bigger prize: not another washed-up Westminster no-mark, but a current, sitting Conservative MP. This week, they got their man. On Monday, East Wiltshire MP Danny Kruger announced his defection to Nigel Farage’s party, claiming the Conservative Party “is over”. Few think he will be the last Tory to cross the aisle.
The news was another success story for Farage – another step forward on what, if the current polls are correct, could well prove to be his long march to Downing Street. The steady drip of defections is great news for Reform, creating a sense of momentum and keeping the party in the headlines for the right reasons; just as its opponents are mired in incompetence, chaos and scandal.
square NEWS All the Tory defections to Reform - and who could be next
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Attracting defectors from the Tories gives credence to the idea that Reform is in the ascendancy and the traditional parties in decline. What’s more, it helps vindicate Farage’s insistence that he is building a rapidly growing movement capable of winning real power, not just leading a fringe party of protest.
But as triumphant as Reform UK strategists are about luring their first incumbent MP to cross the aisle, Farage should be wary. While the short-term benefits are obvious, there are also major political risks posed by the stream of defectors from the Tories – and perhaps, in the months ahead, from Labour too.
Most significantly, welcoming so many former Tories with open arms undermines Farage’s claim that Reform is offering something radically different to the status quo. It is much harder for him to seek election, promising a complete departure from the failed policies of Labour and the Conservatives, if he is surrounded by people who spent many years in those very parties.
To win power, Farage needs to be seen as an insurgent – not just another part of the Westminster establishment, surrounded by politicians who have spent years being part of a system that many voters feel has failed. After all, voters might well ask, if Reform is a safe home for what could prove to be dozens of defecting Tories, how different to the Conservative Party can Farage’s party really be? If this continues, Reform risks looking less like a radical new alternative and more like a slightly more right-wing dumping ground for disillusioned Tories. Farage needs to convince voters that Reform is genuinely different to anything that has gone before – not just a reincarnation of the Conservative Party.
Similarly, Farage’s claim that the Conservatives ruined the country carries less weight if he surrounds himself with the very people who were part of the problem. Just look at the track records of some of the recent Reform defectors: Jake Berry was a prominent supporter of Liz Truss and the Conservative Party chairman during her disastrous 49 days in office. Nadine Dorries was the most fervent supporter of Boris Johnson, serving in his cabinet and defending him throughout the Partygate scandal, even as the evidence of wrongdoing mounted.
square POLITICS Big ReadReform defector says senior Tories want to join him - in blow for Badenoch
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The latest recruit, Danny Kruger, was also a supporter of Truss and is close to Robert Jenrick, who Farage has labelled “a fraud” who “can’t be trusted”. Farage cannot credibly call out the failings of previous Tory governments while sitting chummily next to some of the politicians who presided over, enabled, facilitated and supported those failures. Labour has already spotted an opportunity, here. After Kruger’s defection, a spokesperson for Keir Starmer’s party said: “Every Conservative who defects to Reform ties Nigel Farage more closely to their record.” They are right. Promising to put out the fires is less convincing when the arsonists are part of your team.
Then there are the more unpopular views that come with the likes of Kruger. Right now, Reform strategists are making a concerted effort to try to broaden the party’s appeal. They want to smooth some of its rougher ideological edges in a bid to attract more support from moderate voters and those who typically vote Labour. To that end, Farage has made a point of talking more about issues like child poverty and reinstating benefits for pensioners. Some of that work will be undermined by the association between Farage and people like Kruger, who has made comments on issues like gay marriage and abortion that many moderate voters would find repellent. Welcoming right-wing Conservative hardliners undermines the new, more moderate Reform brand that Farage is trying to build.
It took a matter of minutes for this problem to become clear. When Farage unveiled Kruger at a press conference in London, he was immediately asked about his new MP’s previous claim that marriage between a man and woman is “the only possible basis for a safe and successful society”. Trying to defend Kruger without directly endorsing his views, Farage got himself into an almighty mess and ended up being accused of homophobia himself after claiming that men and women have more stable relationships than same-sex couples. The row was a result of the type of controversies that some of his newest recruits bring with them – ones that Farage is desperately trying to avoid.
For now, it makes sense for Farage to try to lure more people from other parties to join him: Reform’s poll-topping position is precarious and fragile enough that he could do with the added credibility needed to cement it. But for how long? At some point, Farage will need to start saying no to disillusioned Tory backbenchers desperate for their moment in the spotlight. If the Reform surge continues, then – soon enough – he won’t need them, anyway.
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