We look ahead to Wednesday’s Champions League game at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid prediction and preview. It’s one of the heavyweight clashes on Matchday 1 of 2025-26.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool strong favourites to defeat Atlético Madrid, with Arne Slot’s side winning 57.9% of pre-match simulations. The head-to-head record between Liverpool and Atlético is split equally, as the teams have three wins each from the eight meetings Mohamed Salah has scored more goals (44) and made more assists (17) than any other Liverpool player in the UEFA Champions League.Liverpool kick off their UEFA Champions League campaign against Atlético Madrid at Anfield on Wednesday, and will be hoping to maintain their excellent record in the tournament’s new league phase.
The Reds topped the standings in 2024-25, winning the most games (seven) and most points (21) of any side. Liverpool’s only defeat occurred away to PSV Eindhoven with a much-changed team on the final matchday after they had already secured their place in the top eight.
They won all four of their league phase matches at Anfield by an aggregate score of 10-1. This run included a 2-0 win over then reigning champions and Atlético’s fierce rivals Real Madrid.
Liverpool have started their 2025-26 Premier League campaign with a perfect four wins from four. That doesn’t tell the full story, though, as they have needed to score the decisive goal in the 83rd minute or later each time.
4 – Liverpool are the first side in Premier League history to win four consecutive games thanks to winning goals scored in the final 10 minutes or later. Spirit. pic.twitter.com/g6iJl76um9
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 14, 2025Atlético Madrid’s history in the Champions League illustrates how hard they will make it for the Reds, so another late goal may be required here.
Atlético have only lost one of their last 10 opening games of a Champions League campaign, winning five of them. Diego Simeone also won both of his past meetings with Arne Slot. The clashes occurred in the 2023-24 group stage, with Atlético Madrid winning 3-2 at home and 3-1 away.
Even so, the Liverpool head coach will take heart from the underlying numbers in those games. Despite conceding six goals and scoring just three, Slot’s Feyenoord amassed more expected goals (3.6 – 2.1) and more shots (29 – 16) across the two meetings.
This is often Atlético’s game plan though, as they can suffer harder than almost any other team before taking their chances. It is their defensive fortitude that makes the La Liga side so difficult to defeat.
Atlético Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their Champions League matches under Simeone (with 48 shutouts out of a possible 115). Among Spanish teams who’ve played 50+ games under a specific manager, only Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona have a higher clean sheet percentage (40% – 20/50).
Not that Slot’s Liverpool have been a soft touch in Europe. Of centre-back duos or trios with at least five starts in the Champions League last season, Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté had the highest clean sheet percentage of 71% (five in seven games). The pair helped the Reds shutout Arsenal and Burnley in their last two Premier League matches as well.
Speaking of the dramatic victory at Turf Moor, Mohamed Salah will hope his injury-time penalty can kickstart his season in front of goal. He is inevitably the man upon whose shoulders so much Liverpudlian hope rests.
Salah has scored more goals (44) and recorded more assists (17) than any other player for Liverpool in the Champions League. Assuming he features here, he will move into outright second for most appearances for the Reds in the competition, overtaking Steven Gerrard (73), and trailing only Jamie Carragher (80).
As important as Salah is, Slot will be delighted that he has a near full squad available. Curtis Jones missed the Burnley win so may not be involved, while Alexis Mac Allister went off at half time with an ankle issue after suffering a bad challenge. Alexander Isak did not join the squad at Turf Moor but Slot did hint after the game that the Swede could feature at Anfield on Wednesday as he builds up fitness following his move from Newcastle.
Simeone may have more availability issues. It looks likely that Slot’s former player Dávid Hancko and Thiago Almada will miss the trip. The visitors could also be without Julián Alvarez and Robin Le Normand, who were both substituted through injury during the 2-0 win over Villarreal on Saturday.
At least Antoine Griezmann should start. He has scored or assisted 26% of Atlético Madrid’s goals in the Champions League (51/197), the highest percentage by any player for a team who have scored 100+ goals in the competition.
Even with him in their XI, this will be a tall task for the visitors. Can they quieten Anfield as they have at times in the past?
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Head-to-Head
Liverpool won both meetings in the 2021-22 group stage, the last time these teams met. The game at Anfield ended 2-0 thanks to goals in the first 21 minutes from Diogo Jota and Sadio Mané. Felipe received a red card before half time, effectively ending Atlético Madrid’s hopes of a comeback.
In total, the teams have three wins each from their eight matches against each other. However, two of the games were settled in extra-time, and though Liverpool won one of them, they went out of the 2009-10 UEFA Europa League semi-final on away goals on that occasion.
In normal time at Anfield, the Reds have three wins and a draw, so history does not favour Atlético.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Prediction
Liverpool are expected to maintain their strong home record against Atlético Madrid.
Atlético’s chances of a win are rated at 20.8% by the Opta supercomputer, with an almost identical percentage of its 10,000 simulations of the match ending in a draw (21.3%).
That leaves 57.9% allotted to another successful European night at Anfield for the Reds. They will know Diego Simeone’s side will not make it easy for them, though.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Predicted Lineups
Liverpool: Alisson, Conor Bradley, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Hugo Ekitiké.
Head Coach: Arne Slot
Atlético Madrid: Jan Oblak, Marcos Llorente, Robin Le Normand, Clement Lenglet, Matteo Ruggeri, Pablo Barrios, Koke, Giuliano Simeone, Nico González, Antoine Griezmann, Julián Alavarez.
Head Coach: Diego Simeone
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday at Anfield, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Prediction: Will Arne Slot’s Men Need Another Late Winner? Opta Analyst.
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