We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Turf Moor with our Burnley vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Can the defending champions make it four wins from four?
Burnley vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Stats
Liverpool are overwhelming favourites with the Opta supercomputer, with their chance of a win rated at 69%. The Reds have won their last four trips to Burnley without conceding. Alexander Isak could make his first appearance for Liverpool, looking to become their third player to score on debut this season.Liverpool will be aiming to beat Burnley with relative ease after the struggles they had in the opening three matches of their Premier League title defence.
The Reds recovered from throwing away two-goal leads to beat both Bournemouth and Newcastle United. It then took a late direct free-kick goal from Dominik Szoboszlai to settle a dour encounter with Arsenal.
That said, they are the only team in the Premier League still with a 100% record after three games. If the visitors do claim the three points on Sunday, it will be the third time Liverpool have won their opening four matches of a Premier League campaign. It obviously provides a solid foundation, as they finished second (in 2018-19) and first (2019-20) when they previously achieved this feat.
However, Manchester City also won their first four last season before falling away badly. Nothing is guaranteed this early into a campaign.
Having won their one home league game this season, against fellow promoted side Sunderland, Burnley will be hoping to collect another three points in front of their own fans. History is not on the side of them or their manager, though.
The Clarets have lost 14 of their 18 Premier League matches against Liverpool, including the last five. Their last victory in this fixture at home was back in 2016. Even then, their 2-0 win came despite them being outshot by 26 to three.
Burnley have also lost 10 of their last 11 matches against defending champions, albeit the exception was a win at Anfield in 2021. Even so, with 30 goals conceded in those 10 defeats, the losses tend to be heavy.
But probably not as heavy as Scott Parker’s when he last managed against the Reds. His Bournemouth side were thumped 9-0 in a record-equalling Premier League score at Anfield in August 2022.
However, Parker has masterminded a victory over them before and could become only the second manager to beat both Jürgen Klopp and Arne Slot in the Premier League. The other was Marco Silva.
To beat the sizeable supercomputer odds, Burnley will probably need to start this game better than they have been doing this season. They have failed to score in the first half of a league match whereas Liverpool were 1-0 up at the break in their first two games.
Not only that but the Reds extended their leads in those matches within five minutes of the restart. This clash could get away from Burnley quickly if they’re not careful.
Liverpool have previously won seven away top-flight games in a row against three teams: West Brom (eight between 1983 and 2009), Norwich (eight between 1995 and 2021) and Crystal Palace (seven between 2016 and 2022). A win here will add Burnley to that list and any other result feels hugely unlikely.
Parker will at least have close to his full squad available. Only Zeki Amdouni is definitely ruled out, with Jordan Beyer and Connor Roberts on the brink of returning from injury.
The Liverpool squad is in decent shape too. Jeremie Frimpong was ruled out until after the international break after the league opener against Bournemouth but was back in training on Wednesday, so we wait to see if he is fit to resume playing. Otherwise, Slot should have everyone available.
But as star-studded as the Reds’ squad is, all eyes will be on potential debutant Alexander Isak. During his time with Newcastle, only two players scored more Premier League goals than he did. That form convinced Liverpool to pay £125 million to break the British transfer record in exchange for his services.
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2 weeks ago David SegarThat broke their own record from earlier this summer, having already signed Florian Wirtz for a fee that could rise to £116m. While yet to fully adapt to the pace of English football, it has not been through a lack of effort on the talented German’s part.
Wirtz has made the most off-ball runs in the Premier League this season (92), while he’s also made the most runs into the attacking third (42) and most runs ahead of the ball (26). He and Isak should combine well together once they have forged a relationship.
The Swede did feature off the bench for his country in their 2-0 loss in Kosovo during the international break, though having not played domestically since May and having also not taken part in any pre-season training other than individual work, it seems unlikely Isak will start here.
Hugo Ekitiké has made an excellent start to life at Liverpool, scoring three times in four games in all competitions, and the Frenchman will surely keep his place up top for now.
Burnley vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Liverpool have a predictably strong record in this head-to-head. They have been more dominant at Turf Moor than at Anfield in the Premier League, too.
The Reds have dropped points in three of their nine meetings on their own patch, but have a record of eight wins and one defeat at Burnley. They have won the last six in a row, not even conceding a goal in the previous four.
Burnley vs Liverpool Prediction
This will be one of the Opta supercomputer’s more one-sided predictions this season.
Liverpool were victorious in 69.0% of the 10,000 simulated matches. If Burnley are to get anything from this game it is likelier to be one point rather than three.
A draw was the outcome 17.1% of the time, with the remaining 13.9% allotted to what would be a famous win for the Clarets.
Burnley vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Burnley: Martin Dúbravka, Kyle Walker, Hjalmar Ekdal, Maxime Estève, Quilindschy Hartman, Josh Cullen, Lesley Ugochukwu, Jacob Bruun Larsen, Hannibal Mejbri, Jaidon Anthony, Lyle Foster.
Head Coach: Scott Parker
Liverpool: Alisson, Dominik Szoboszlai, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Florian Wirtz, Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Hugo Ekitiké.
Head Coach: Arne Slot
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Burnley vs Liverpool Prediction: Will Reds Maintain Perfect Record? Opta Analyst.
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