US initial jobless claims at 263K compared to 235K expected led to a dovish Fed repricing and a fresh record high in US stock markets but the data may have been skewed by one state -- Texas.
Claims in that state alone rose to 31,908 from 16,604, meaning that 15.3K of the 28K miss in claims (or more than half) was from Texas alone. There could have been a layoff event there but it's likely to be a one-off as it's by far the largest number since the pandemic. When you factor in seasonal adjustment, the swing is even larger.
Don't be surprised if claims retreat next week, though it will be one day too late for the FOMC decision.
h/t @MikeZaccardi
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