Sir Keir Starmer is obsessed with Reform UK. Taking on Nigel Farage is the Prime Minister’s No 1 political priority.
Sometimes, this involves drawing a stark contrast with the right-wing populists – as when Labour points to Farage’s previous support for a privatised NHS.
Sometimes, it means moving onto Reform’s turf, talking tough on immigration and benefits to win over conservative-minded voters – what some critics dismiss as “trying to out-Farage Farage”.
The cause of this obsession is no mystery. Reform is riding high in public opinion – it claims that it has led in the last 100 published polls. Facing the party head on is a must for Starmer’s future.
But moving to the right comes with big downsides. Not only is there the threat posed by the Greens and Jeremy Corbyn’s as-yet-untitled new party – both are fighting to peel off left-wing voters – but opposition within the Labour faithful, too.
Tension on the centre-left was evident at the annual gathering of the Trades Union Congress (TUC) this week. The various unions have never been united in their views on Starmer’s leadership, but at the shindig in Brighton it was clear that those who were once wary have turned hostile – while many of those who were previously supportive are now more critical.
Sharon Graham, head of the hardline Unite union, gave a passionate speech denouncing the Government’s handling of recent industrial disputes – and declared in a newspaper interview that her group is close to ending its formal link to Labour.
Unite and the TSSA, the independent trade union for transport workers, both of which have been loyal to Starmer from the very beginning – each endorsed his bid for the party leadership in 2020 – have both publicly sounded the alarm about the prospect of the Employment Rights Bill being watered down, warning the Prime Minister that any backsliding on his pledges would be a betrayal.
It was foolish of Starmer not to attend the TUC himself – Downing Street sent Bridget Phillipson, the Education Secretary and deputy leadership hopeful, instead – when even his allies are getting antsy.
Nor did the new Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, go to the congress, as he was sent on a trade mission to the US and China within 48 hours of being appointed. “It would have been sensible if they had sent Peter here to calm things down a bit,” one union insider suggests.
For now, the workers’ rights law is the major flashpoint. If Starmer can deliver the package in full, as promised, he will be able to tell the unions and the left more broadly that he is keeping his word despite moves to the right on migration, welfare and corporate deregulation – and despite the howls from business, which claims that additional red tape on employers will throttle the already weak economy.
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But his reshuffle of ministers may be storing up further trouble for the future. The Prime Minister has brought in a large number of sparky young MPs to replace more experienced – but less dynamic – figures.
There are two problems with this. One is that by handing Government jobs to all the true Starmer loyalists from the intake of MPs elected last year, the Prime Minister is left with fewer reliable supporters on the back benches.
The other is that he has now instantly created enemies in the form of the sacked ministers, many of whom had stuck close to their leader through a half-decade of ups and downs.
A Labour source tells The i Paper: “What you’re doing is you are alienating a load of experienced campaigners and sending them to the back benches – good luck getting your welfare reforms through! It’s politically short-sighted.”
The deputy leadership contest shows just how badly Starmer has already alienated some of his former friends. Two of the leading candidates, Lucy Powell and Emily Thornberry, served on his front bench for years before being unceremoniously ditched. Both are pushing to give MPs more say over how the Government operates – not something welcomed by a highly centralised No 10 operation.
Everybody in Labour knows that things have gone badly wrong. Most have sympathy for the Prime Minister – the loss of Angela Rayner is just the latest piece of bad luck which has made Starmer’s life harder, through no fault of his own.
But that sympathy is at risk of running out. “We have always backed him and wanted him to do well,” a union source says. “But he’s so lacklustre – it’s really disappointing.” More and more of his old supporters are saying the same.
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