National Australia Bank expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver its first 25bp rate cut in September, citing mounting labour market risks and heightened political considerations.
In a research note, NAB said its broader outlook remains largely unchanged,
The bank stressed that the Fed continues to face conflicting pressures:
elevated inflation on one side and a likely rise in unemployment on the other.It expects a gradual easing cycle as the Fed works to limit the risk of second-round tariff-driven inflation effects while navigating political headwinds in an election year. NAB added that the degree of uncertainty around the rate path is “wider than normal.”
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