Barclays trimmed its 2026 Brent crude forecast by $4 to $66 a barrel, citing expectations that OPEC+ will fully phase out voluntary supply cuts by September 2026.
The bank noted OPEC+’s decision over the weekend to lift October production targets by 137,000 bpd as the first step in rolling back the 1.66 million bpd in cuts introduced in May 2023. At the current pace, the rollback would be completed within a year.
Barclays said markets took comfort that the pace of the unwind is slower than feared, pointing out that August and September increases were four times larger than October’s move. Still, the bank highlighted resilient spot fundamentals and a wide valuation gap as reasons it remains constructive on oil since early July.
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