Week 2 NFL Power Ratings: Time to Overreact ...Middle East

Maybe the most difficult week since you have only one data point of actual NFL football that isn’t just priors from last season.

How much should we weigh the implied strength of an opponent in evaluating a player? (Cam Ward against a tough Denver defense)

How hard should we be on new coaches who have only had one offseason to bring change? (Ben Johnson outside of the scripted plays)

What about new OCs who saw the offense underperform? (Tampa Bay every single year).

Not an exact science, but here we are, with only a few major changes (Miami, San Francisco, Dallas), and around 15 more moves of around a half point or so after learning a little more about teams and their strengths and weaknesses.

Week Two NFL Power Ratings

The toughest one right now is the 49ers, who seem to be more likely to start Mac Jones than not. With the three-point move down in the markets, along with the total dropping, this could be a nasty slip-up spot after getting a nice divisional win to start the season. Jennings and Kittle missing time also play into the calculus, but for now, I’m leaning about 70/30 that Purdy misses this weekend and have a sizeable downgrade to go with that.

Power Ratings: Too Much Love for Baker?

My biggest early week disagreement is in the Houston – Tampa Bay matchup, where the market has the Texasn favored by 3 and I am much closer to a pick’em after adjusting for situation and matchups.

The Bucs (again with a brand new OC) were not terribly efficient on offense and scraped by on making it happen on high leverage downs. I’m not crazy about giving the team a big downgrade on offense, as I’ve already penalized them for missing Wirfs and Godwin. So, I’m stuck in a spot where my numbers really want me to bet a team that’s playing on the road for the second straight week, this time against my highest-rated defense.

Some of the disconnect is how lowly I have the Texans offense at the moment, with a patchwork offensive line and weak run game to lean on. This is a move on the total (from 45.5 down to 42.5) I strongly agree with.

Disagree with something here? Get mad about it, I guess. You can always complain to me on Twitter (@andymsfw or @deepdivepod), or even better, join us on the weekly NFL preview podcast livestream and make your case in the live comments. We’ll more than likely mention it on the show if you have a strong point.

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