The Arizona Diamondbacks entered Monday 4.5 games back of the New York Mets for the third and final National League Wild Card spot following their loss on Sunday.
However, the Reds, Giants and Cardinals are all within half a game of Arizona, and the Padres are only two games ahead of the Mets in the second Wild Card spot.
The playoff odds remain slim for each of the teams in the hunt, all at less than 4% according to FanGraphs. But baseball is a sport of chaos, and the Detroit Tigers made the playoffs last year with only 5% odds on Sep. 7, so it wouldn’t hurt to do some due diligence.
When the playoffs expanded in 2022, extra regular season games to determine ties were eliminated. MLB now has a formula to break ties between two, three and even four teams. This system resulted in the Diamondbacks missing the postseason last year despite finishing tied with the Mets and Braves for the final two spots.
Note: All records listed in this article are prior to play on Monday, Sep. 8.
Scenario: Diamondbacks tie with 1 other team
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In the event of a two-team tie, head-to-head records would determine who would make the playoffs (or seeding in the event of a tie for the fifth and sixth seeds).
Currently, the D-backs hold the following records:
vs. Padres: 5-5 (3 games left to play)
vs. Mets: 3-3
vs. Reds: 2-4
vs. Giants: 4-3 (6 games left to play)
vs. Cardinals: 3-3
At this point in time, the only locked tiebreaker for the D-backs is with the Reds, which they lose.
Following the head-to-head records, ties are resolved by first looking at the teams’ intradivision (within their division) records and then their interdivision (within their league but not their division) records. Since Arizona ends the regular season against a division opponent, these records won’t be locked until the end of the year.
With an intradivision record of 22-18, the D-backs would currently win the tiebreaker against the Cardinals (20-20).
Arizona would currently lose the tiebreaker against the Mets (23-19) and Padres (26-19).
Scenario: Diamondbacks tie with 2 other teams
Adding more teams to the mix makes the scenarios much more complicated, especially with every team still having at least one series against another contender remaining this season.
If one team in a three-way tie has a winning record against both other teams, they win the tiebreaker. Otherwise, the cumulative winning percentages for each team against the other two are compared.
The three-team tiebreakers prior to play on Monday are listed below. In the event of a three-way tie for the fifth seed, the sixth seed would be decided by the two-team tiebreakers.
Records against the other two teams in the tiebreaker are listed in parenthesis.
Locked three-team tiebreakers
D-backs (5-7), Mets (5-7) and Reds (8-4): Reds
D-backs (6-6), Mets (8-5) and Cardinals (5-8): Mets
Three-team tiebreakers with head-to-head games still to be played
D-backs (8-8), Mets (3-6) and Padres (8-5): Padres
D-backs (7-6), Mets (7-5) and Giants (5-8): Mets
D-backs (7-9), Padres (6-7) and Reds (6-3): Reds
D-backs (9-8), Padres (15-8) and Giants (6-14): Padres
D-backs (8-8), Padres (9-8) and Cardinals (6-7): Padres
D-backs (6-7), Reds (7-5) and Giants (6-7): Reds
D-backs (5-7), Reds (8-8) and Cardinals (9-7): Cardinals
D-backs (7-6), Giants (4-6) and Cardinals (5-4): Cardinals
Scenario: Diamondbacks tie with 3 other teams
It is incredibly unlikely but still mathematically possible that the D-backs and three other teams all end the regular season tied. In that case, the calculation is the same as before, but with another team involved. Currently, there are no four-way ties that would result in the D-backs winning the tiebreaker.
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