California Gov. Gavin Newsom secured a long-awaited win against President Trump after a federal judge in San Francisco barred soldiers from aiding in immigration arrests and other civilian law enforcement across the state.
The decision follows months of feuding between Newsom and Trump, which recently escalated after the president deployed the National Guard in Los Angeles this past June.
While the victory for Newsom and Democrats is clear, it also raises serious questions about how he and his party approach the issues of crime, law enforcement, and public order more generally.
Indeed – unless there is a policy response that acknowledges these problems directly – the ruling could ultimately cast doubt on how seriously the Governor and his political allies take these critically important issues of public concern.
A new poll from AP-NORC shows that an overwhelming majority (81%) think crime is a major concern in large cities and 66% say the same nationwide. It’s apparent that Americans consider crime a top issue – and if Democrats are looking to put MAGA to rest once and for all, they must stop defining themselves purely by opposition and finally get their policies right.
In 2024, much of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign was run on resistance to Trump. While that approach may have energized the base and generated short-term traction, it isn’t enough to sustain a competitive presidential campaign, especially this early in the 2028 cycle.
Newsom – who is widely viewed as a leading contender for his party’s nomination – must be careful not to fall into that same trap. Although his sharp rhetoric against Trump and extremist Republicans plays well in CA, it risks pigeonholing him as a candidate who opposes plans more than he offers them.
In other words, for Newsom to be viable on the national stage, he’ll need to present an aggressive agenda that effectively addresses crime, public safety, immigration, and border control without harping on his disdain for Trump.
Polling also shows that nearly two-thirds (62%) of Californians think it is important for the U.S. to secure its borders and stop the flow of illegal immigration, according to a survey from Politico/Citrin Center/Possibility Lab, although many disagree with the Trump administration’s harsh approach.
Taken together, it’s evident that voters want balance – they value compassion but expect order. For Democrats, ignoring that relationship is politically dangerous.
But for Newsom, it might just be the perfect moment to position himself as a candidate who can garner support from Democrats, Independents, and swing voters alike.
To do so, he’ll have to reclaim the middle ground on crime and immigration, emphasizing both fairness and enforcement. While he proposed a plan earlier this year that would make illegal immigrants ineligible to apply for the state’s Medicare program, Newsom will need to do more to demonstrate to Californians – and ultimately voters across the country – that he’s serious about border control and national security.
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Rather, it calls for common-sense policies that appeal to voters who are tired of extremes on both sides of the aisle.
And for Newsom specifically – as both governor of California and a viable option for the Oval Office – he must now prove that he can turn a symbolic courtroom victory into practical solutions on crime, immigration, and public safety.
If he gets it right, this ruling could serve as a launchpad for presidential ambitions.
If he fails, however, it will only highlight the weaknesses that could sink his candidacy before it even begins.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
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