Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected Western proposals for a “reassurance force” in Ukraine following a ceasefire, as peace negotiations stall.
US President Trump has been attempting to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine but said this week “they are not ready yet” to come to a deal.
Putin this week invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Moscow for talks, something Zelensky rejected, saying he “can’t go to the capital of this terrorist.”
Talks are in deadlock, as Putin continues to make maximalist demands to end his battery of Ukraine.
Putin has said that he wants to seize four regions in the east of Ukraine; Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.
The four have already been confirmed as part of Russian territory in its constitution – although integrating the territories has not been recognised internationally.
Although Russian troops currently occupy large swathes of all four regions, they have never been in full control of the areas Putin wants to annex.
Many analysts who have spoken to The i Paper now believe the most likely outcome is for the war to end along the current battlelines, where Russia currently control around 20 per cent of Ukrainian land.
Firefighters douse flames at a residential building while rescuers search the rubble for victims after a Russian ballistic missile strike on 28 August 2025 in Kyiv, Ukraine. (Photo: Pierre Crom/Getty Images)As well as new territory, Putin may also want the formal recognition of Crimea, an area of Ukrainian land that Kremlin forces annexed in 2014, as Russian.
Territorial concessions may be enough to broker a short term peace deal, but experts believe Putin may launch future invasions in a bid to expand Russia’s borders.
Emily Ferris, Senior Research Fellow at defence thinktank RUSI, said that Russia’s maximalist demands for the entirety of four territories that are partially under its control “would not necessarily satisfy Putin in the longer term”.
Ferris said it “highly likely that any peace settlement that negotiates an end to the war along the current contact line will buy Russia time to rearm and reconstitute its armed forces to attempt further territorial gains in future.”
Neutrality and demilitarisation
Russia is believed to be seeking a demilitarised Ukraine which lacks military allies, and would be a less able to resist any future invasions.
Putin has consistently opposed Ukrainian membership of Nato, and Trump recently confirmed that he would not support Ukraine entering the alliance, saying there is “no going into Nato by Ukraine” as part of a peace deal.
However, the UK has said it is committed to Ukraine’s path to joining Nato.
Sir Keir Starmer has reaffirmed the UK’s commitment Ukraine’s “irreversible path” to joining Nato (Photo: PA/ Jordan Pettitt)Ferris said: “Russia would like to see a militarily weakened Ukraine with limited ability to prevent Russia from future warfare – this could include limits on further western weaponry supplied to Ukraine and intelligence sharing and training with the west.”
Dr Marina Miron, a war studies lecturer at Kings College London, said that Russia would likely want assurances that there will be no military bases of other countries on Ukrainian soil.
The UK, along with France, has led a so-called coalition of the willing, a group of nations who have pledged to support post-war Ukrainian security.
This would include training for Ukrainian forces, air defences, and potentially Western boots on the ground – but this is likely to be a point of contention during the talks.
Neil Melvin, director of international security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) previously told The i Paper that the Kremlin could also try to force political and cultural change within Ukraine.
Putin may want to force Zelensky to resign, introduce the Russian language as the second state language and bring in federalisation across the country “to promote political fragmentation.”
Ferris said that Putin will “likely use the next few years to interfere in Ukrainian politics, with the aim of identifying political parties and leaders that are sympathetic towards Russia.”
Trump has been attempting to broker peace, but has made little success. (Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)Putin has consistently claimed his invasion of Ukraine was to carry out “denazification”.
Defence intelligence firm Janes said that this was likely to mean Kremlin will demand change of Zelensky’s Kyiv government and political reforms in favour of Russian minorities, such use of their language and religious freedoms.
Lifting of sanctions
Putin may also want to force concessions from the international community.
“Recognition as being a power on a par with the US and China – which Russia considers part of the ‘geopolitical troika’, alonside itself – is highly important to Putin,” Ferris said.
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“As far as Russia is concerned, global recognition of Crimea matters less than the reality on the ground which is that Russia controls it. The lifting of sanctions is less important than achieving his political and security goals, and what they have done is unintentionally opened up new trade routes for Russia and its other allies that circumvent the sanctions.”
But Janes senior analyst Alex Petric said that the Kremlin very likely does not expect the Western sanctions to be lifted to any significant extent.
“Putin in his key speech on 18 March to Union of Russian industrialists, stated: ‘Sanctions are not temporary or targeted measures; they are a mechanism of systemic, strategic pressure on our country’,” he said.
“Regarding legal recognition of Crimea – Janes assesses that ‘de-jure recognition’ is very likely far less important for Kremlin than de-facto control of Ukraine’s regions.”
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