You can put that gold chart in the technical analysis text book, at least so far.
Gold has been in a long-term bull market, almost a parabolic one from $2000 post-pandemic. After spiking to a record $3500 in April, it took a break and consolidated for five months. Now that it's clear the Fed is going to aggressively ease and the US is embracing fiscal irresponsibility, it's breaking out again.
The simple measured target of this move (1x the consolidation range) that gets you to $4000, which is something I highlighted at the start of the week as it began to break out. What we've seen so far is strong confirmation and the one-day dip yesterday opened a small window to chase the move.
I think the fundamentals are even more compelling from here. The global order around trade is breaking down and the images of Chinese Indian and Russian leaders holding hands this week points to big geopolitical shifts to come.
Seasonally, it's not a great time for gold but that rapidly turns in November so it might be best to sweat it out even if this is a false breakout (or wait for a retest of the range).
In any case, I've been banging the drum since $2000 and I'm finding it tough to find any reason to change gears now.
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