We run our eye over the Opta supercomputer predictions ahead of the Matchday 17 action in the South American World Cup 2026 qualifiers.
The penultimate round of matches in the South American World Cup 2026 qualifiers takes place on Thursday.
Argentina, Ecuador and Brazil have already qualified, while Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia have a chance to join them on Matchday 17.
Ahead of the action, we look at the Opta supercomputer predictions for all five qualifiers on MD 17.
Argentina vs Venezuela
Argentina have already qualified with ease for the World Cup next summer, as they top the South American qualification group by 10 points coming into MD 17.
They have lost just one of their last 27 home games (W20 D6), with only Uruguay (2-0 in November 2023) beating them on their own turf since November 2016. They host a Venezuela side who have won just two of their last 11 internationals (D4 L5), but La Vinotinto are one of only four sides to have stopped Argentina from winning in this qualification cycle.
While Argentina are the highest-scoring side in South American qualification for the 2026 World Cup (28 goals), their defensive record has been the main highlight, with opponents tallying the lowest xG (8.9) and having the fewest shots (104) and shots on target (38) against them in their 16 matches.
Venezuela last defeated Argentina in a qualification match back in 2011, winning 1-0 thanks to Fernando Amorebieta’s second-half goal.
The Opta supercomputer is unsurprisingly expecting Argentina to defeat Venezuela in this match, with Lionel Scaloni’s side winning 75.8% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations. Venezuela won just 8.5% of the time, while they secured an commendable draw in 13.0% of sims.
Colombia vs Bolivia
Colombia will be hoping to qualify for the 2026 World Cup in front of their own fans on MD 17 as they host Bolivia in Barranquilla.
A win will be enough for the Colombians, but they’ll have to end a recent run of poor form as they head into this clash on a six-game winless streak (D3 L3).
Bolivia won their last encounter, too, 1-0 at their famously high-altitude stadium in El Alto – their first win over Colombia since 2003.
Expect goals in this game. Bolivia’s 16 matches have seen 48 goals scored in total, nine more than any other side in this qualification campaign, while Colombia’s games have produced the highest xG total (40.8), slightly more than Bolivia’s in second (38.3).
Colombia are the Opta supercomputer’s most confident pick across MD 17 of the CONMEBOL World Cup 2026 qualifiers, with Néstor Lorenzo picking up a much-needed victory in this match in 78.1% of the pre-game simulations.Bolivia really need a victory to give themselves a chance of a shock qualification for the World Cup, but the supercomputer saw them win this match just 8.7% of the time.
Paraguay vs Ecuador
Paraguay will be hoping to keep up their brilliant recent form at home, as they sit on the cusp of qualifying for their first World Cup since South Africa 2010.
Gustavo Alfaro’s side have won their last five home games, including victories over Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay; they haven’t won six in a row at home since September 2001.
They face a difficult encounter here, though. Ecuador head to Asunción on a nine-game unbeaten run (W4 D5) that has seen them concede just one goal.
Much of Ecuador’s success in this qualification group has stemmed from their solid defence. They have let in only five goals and never more than once in a single game, keeping 11 clean sheets in their last 13 World Cup qualifiers.
This match has proved the closest call for the Opta supercomputer across MD 17, with Ecuador (37.2%) only just edging out Paraguay (36.6%) in the pre-match simulations.
Paraguay haven’t qualified for any of the last three World Cup tournaments, but they only need a point in front of their own fans to seal qualification for the 2026 finals. They drew or won 62.8% of the time across the sims.
Uruguay vs Peru
Uruguay started this World Cup qualification campaign well, winning 13 points from their first six games. But since a third-place finish at the 2024 Copa America, Marcelo Bielsa’s side have taken only 11 points from 10 qualifiers.
The biggest worry has been in attack. Those opening six qualifiers saw them score 13 times and average 1.38 xG per game, but in the 10 qualifcation matches since then, they’ve failed to score on seven occasions and scored six goals from 6.2 xG (0.62 xG per game).
While Uruguay’s numbers going forward have dropped off recently, Peru’s attack have performed terribly across the entire World Cup qualification campaign. They have scored just six goals in 16 games, converting only 4.8% of their shots, while only one of their goals has come in their eight away games.
Uruguay only need a point to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, and the Opta supercomputer saw them achieve this in 80.8% of the pre-match simulations (win: 59.8%, draw: 21.0%).
Peru are hoping for a miracle in order to qualify for the inter-confederation play-off and must win this game to stand any chance of doing that – they only achieved this in 19.2% of the supercomputer sims.
Brazil vs Chile
While this is now a dead rubber, there’s no escaping the fact Brazil have been disappointing on the whole over this World Cup qualification campaign.
After losing half of their first eight qualifiers, their place at the 2026 finals looked under threat, but recent form has steadied the ship. The appointment of Carlo Ancelotti as manager could prove shrewd, but a 0-0 draw in Ecuador and a 1-0 home win over Paraguay in June hardly provided excitement.
Chelsea pair Estêvão and João Pedro have started 2025-26 well and could provide Ancelotti with a spark in attack, while Barcelona’s Raphinha has been involved in 35 goals in 38 appearances for club and country in 2025 (19 goals, 16 assists).
With Chile already eliminated, they have just pride to play for now. A win could see them come off the bottom of the standings and overtake Peru, but they only managed that in 10.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-game simulations. They have collected just one point in eight away qualifiers during this cycle, so a positive result feels unlikely.
Brazil, who have already qualified for the 2026 World Cup, won 74.5% of the supercomputer sims.
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