On Ukraine’s Independence Day last month, Volodymyr Zelensky threw down a fresh gauntlet to his Russian foe.
It was hardly a rabbit out of the hat moment when he revealed that Ukraine was building its very own long range cruise missile with a range of some 3000 kilometres. It had been known for some time that the new Flamingo was in the works, but Zelensky now confirmed that it will soon be in production.
The Russian response came 48 hours later with the devastating drone and missile attack across Ukraine.
There are now signs from several fronts that the war is reaching a critical stage – a culminating point, in military jargon – for both sides. The outcome is uncertain as ever, with no clear winner in sight.
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For all the blather about peace talks, terms and investment opportunities, the war goes on. Putin doesn’t want any more meetings while he senses victory in the field. If anything Russia’s terms have become harsher, particularly as articulated by foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. More than refusing a tete-a-tete between Putin and Zelensky, the Kremlin now wants Trump to remove Zelensky, claiming his leadership is “illegitimate”.
Hubris has stalked the Russian camp since the Alaska Summit, where Putin left-footed the sadly ill-prepared Trump contingent. He was out of isolation, appearing on the world’s media as the equal of the president of the US. Since then the Kremlin has said there can be no peace without victory, and an end to Ukraine’s independence.
Yet, as in ancient myth, Hubris for the Russians is being pursued by Nemesis, goddess of vengeance.
In the past month, 10 of Russian’s major oil refineries have been hit by Ukraine’s drones and missiles – in some cases starting fires that burned for four days. Roughly 20 per cent of Russia’s refining capacity has been lost, an output of 1.1 million barrels a day. Oil terminals and switching stations have been hit, and on 26 August, one of the main fuel pipelines from Ryazan into Moscow was blown up.
The Moscow press has warned of possible fuel rationing, and admitted, unusually, that disruption to fuel supplies in Crimea was due enemy drone strikes. In Sakhalin in the far east, a limit of 10 litres per vehicle has been imposed at the pumps. Extraordinarily, petrol is being bought from Belarus to supply Moscow.
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There are also concerns about groceries and food – and the prospect that these too may be rationed. An official directive has suggested less consumption of red meat, beef and lamb, and that it may be time to switch to chicken. Prices of eggs, bread, and potatoes, now being imported for the first time, are rising steeply.
“The Russians were always resilient,” says Dr Fiona Hill, the noted Russian expert at Brookings, adviser to the UK Government and to the first Trump administration, “but now things look remarkably fragile. It was the most resilient population, and fastest growing nation at the turn of the 19th century, then came the terrible destruction of the wars – from which it recovered.”
Now there is a prospect of serious dislocation in the economy, with the prospect of a recession forecast. India, which has led the sanctions busters by importing 37 per cent of Russia’s oil exports, has slashed its oil order – not least because of Trump’s 50 per cent super tariff on India.
This is where the Flamingo missile comes in. Since the war began Ukraine has wanted long range missiles to strike behind Russian lines, and even deeper into their main supply bases, arms factories, logistics hubs, refineries and terminals.
The Biden administration didn’t want attacks into Russia, and only reluctantly allowed the British and French to supply their Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missiles. Only lately the Americans have supplied their American Army Tactical Missile System – though recently Pete Hegseth vetoed a proposed strike into Russia with one of these.
As Zelensky spelled out to the media last month, with Flamingo Ukraine will have a weapon that can hit drone factories, supply dumps and oil facilities beyond the Urals. And he would not require anyone’s permission to use them. Production is hoped to hit seven missiles a day by October.
On Ukraine’s Independence Day Trump seemed to change his mind on Kyiv’s right to strike its enemy’s weak spot – deep inside Russia itself: “It’s very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invader’s country.”
Latest reports say that Ukrainian drone strikes have set fire to a swathe of forest just north of Putin’s Cape Idokopas palace on the Black Sea coast – and are now threatening his special vineyard two miles from its front door. The next moves could be unexpectedly decisive.
Robert Fox is a defence expert and war correspondent who has reported from the Falklands, Middle East, Afghanistan and the Balkans
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