Earlier this season, when Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong were absolutely GOING OFF, it felt like Michael Busch barely got any attention. That, despite the fact that there were long stretches when he, not the other three, was producing at the best rate.
More recently, when when Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong were absolutely STRUGGLING, it felt like Michael Busch … also barely got any attention. That, despite the fact that his .190/.248/.341/65 wRC+ slash line, and not the others’, is the worst on the Cubs in the second half.
I wanted to note it not so much to pile on Busch, who has been closer to league average the last couple weeks. Maybe he’s coming out of it a bit?
Instead, I just can’t stop thinking about the thing that happened the day before the All-Star break, and how Busch’s production tanked immediately thereafter: Michael Busch led off for the first time, and hit a home run to open the Cubs’ July 13 game against the Yankees. WOO HOO, NEW LEADOFF HITTER!
That was the energy, anyway, and that primacy bias can stick for a long time, even when the numbers are screaming that something needs to change. Consider that, at least against righties, Busch is getting the most at bats of anyone on the Cubs … and has been the single worst hitter on the Cubs during the exact same time frame during which he’s been in that top batting spot! You couldn’t plan it out worse if you intended!
If you zoom in on just the batting order position rather than the time frame, the numbers look slightly better, but the split is still massive. When batting first at any point this season, Michael Busch is hitting .205/.260/.393/81 wRC+, with a 4.7% walk rate and 27.6% strikeout rate. When batting at any other spot, Busch is hitting .282/.368/.524/150 wRC+, with a 10.3% walk rate and a 23.4% strikeout rate.
I don’t want to claim there’s a one-to-one relationship here, because we know it could just be a slump for other reasons. But some guys just don’t do well in certain spots in the batting order for one reason or another. We know this is a real thing. These are human beings, after all. But maybe it’s time to consider giving him a look elsewhere in the lineup?
As for what has happened to Busch in the second half, it’s kind of all been a mess. The walks are way down. The strikeouts are way up. The chase is way up. The whiffs are way up. The quality of contact is way down. I don’t know if there’s a physical issue there or a mechanical one. But we’re well past the two month mark of a deep, deep funk, so you have to believe there’s something going on.
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