Which team will win La Liga this season? Stay up to date with our live Opta supercomputer predictions for the 2025-26 Spanish top-flight title race.
Barcelona won the 2024-25 La Liga title, with Hansi Flick’s side finishing four points ahead of arch rivals Real Madrid in the table. Can they win La Liga once again in 2025-26, though?
It will be a difficult task as no team has retained the La Liga title since Barcelona themselves in 2018-19.
Real Madrid have alternated between first- and second-place finishes over the last six seasons. If that pattern continues in 2025-26, they will lift their 37th Spanish top-flight title under new manager Xabi Alonso.
The last time a side other than Barça or Real Madrid won La Liga was back in 2020-21, when Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid lifted the trophy. No side other than those three have won La Liga across any of the last 21 seasons, with Valencia the last team to do it in 2003-04.
You can keep up with the latest La Liga title projections by the Opta supercomputer throughout the 2025-26 season on this page.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances. The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Who Will Win La Liga in 2025-26? Opta Analyst.
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