GCSE pupils could be “turned away” from overcrowded sixth form colleges who are bracing for a bumper year of applicants.
The Sixth Form Colleges Association (SFCA) said a demographic boom has left demand for places “really high”, blaming insufficient Government funding for oversubscribed colleges being unable to expand.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimated that the number of 16- to 18-year-olds has grown by 230,000 (13 per cent) between 2018 and 2024, and predicted a further increase of 110,000 (5 per cent) by 2028.
“As a result, sixth form colleges are squeezing more and more students into already overcrowded classrooms, or turning students away,” said James Kewin, deputy chief executive of the SFCA.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said there is “extra pressure” on secondary and sixth form admissions due to the “pupil population bulge” – particularly in areas where hundreds of new homes have been built.
“Some sixth form colleges may be over-subscribed, especially in certain areas of the country – for example in areas with large amounts of new house building – which could mean competition for places for some students could be high,” he said.
Woking College, a sixth form in Surrey, has seen a sharp rise in demand, with 2,500 applications this year for around 1,000 places. Principal Brett Freeman said the sixth form has grown by 10 to 15 per cent annually since receiving an “outstanding” Ofsted rating in 2022.
Asked whether students will be turned away this year, Freeman said: “The honest answer to that question is, we don’t know.” He explained that numbers are “not entirely predictable” as the sector is an “open market”, meaning pupils can hold multiple offers before deciding where to go in August.
“We would expect some growth, and we’d hope not to turn anyone away,” he added.
Freeman raised concerns about shrinking options for pupils who underperformed at GCSE level, as sixth forms increasingly close Level 2 foundation programmes due to “pressure on places.”
He explained that closing Woking College’s Level 2 programme – which allows pupils to take a foundation year before progressing to Level 3 – would solve the sixth form’s capacity issues. “All my rooming worries would go away if I closed our Level 2 program – which I’m not going to do. We’d have plenty of space,” he said.
“There’s a lack of second chances out there for those students, and that is a funding and capital issue,” he added.
Freeman said it is “very difficult” to raise the money needed to make a funding bid, and even then, “there are so many schools with boilers breaking and roofs failing that getting on the priority list is really hard because of the lack of capital funding”.
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The SFCA called for an “urgent” uplift to capital expansion funding to allow increasingly oversubscribed colleges to create more classrooms.
“Our issue is actually accommodating all the students that want a place in sixth form colleges,” Kerwin said. “We are in the middle of a demographic boom and demand for places is really high.”
“Students will still find a sixth form place, but it may not be in their first-choice institution, particularly if that is a sixth form college,” he added.
It comes as hundreds of thousands of GCSE students are awaiting their results, which will determine whether they have got into their first choice sixth form or apprenticeship.
The latest Department for Education (DfE) data shows that the number of pupils in sixth form has increased by 15 per cent from 424,204 in 2019 to 500,082 in 2024.
However, the proportion of students who are working towards qualifications or apprenticeships has remained stable since the pandemic, with an increase in pupils who are Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET).
Research by the Education Policy Institute (EPI), published in June, found this is “particularly prevalent amongst lower attainers” and suggests that increased absence rates at school age could signal a “broader disengagement from the education system”.
It cites other potential reasons, including that the lowest-attaining students are “not well catered for in the current post-16 system” and not getting the right guidance about suitable qualifications.
Kerwin called the Government’s plan to phase out certain BTECs “disastrous” and warned that it could see “more young people disengage from education at the age of 16”.
Headteacher unions raised similar fears, with Anne Murdoch, senior adviser in college leadership at the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), warning the BTEC reforms would “leave many young people without a viable route into work or further study”.
Murdoch also highlighted the “very challenging financial position” facing many sixth forms and colleges, pointing to “historic underinvestment in post-16 education.”
The Government has been contacted for comment.
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