Can Eddie Howe’s side start a Premier League season with a win for the fourth year in a row? We preview Saturday’s clash with our Aston Villa vs Newcastle United prediction via the Opta supercomputer.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
Aston Villa claimed all three points against Newcastle in 42.6% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Villa are unbeaten in their last 21 home games in all competitions (W15 D6), winning the last eight in a row. Newcastle have lost five of their last six Premier League away games against Villa.Aston Villa may be out for a slice of revenge when they open their Premier League campaign at home to Newcastle United in Saturday’s early kick-off.
Eddie Howe’s side pipped Villa to the fifth and final UEFA Champions League spot on the final day of the 2024-25 season, courtesy of a superior goal difference.
That was despite Newcastle losing their last two Premier League games – both 1-0 against Arsenal and Everton. Howe’s men last lost more consecutive games between December and January in 2023-24 (4), while they last did so without scoring in January 2021 (3).
Anthony Elanga has since arrived from Nottingham Forest, as well as Malick Thiaw, who switched Milan for Tyneside, and a loan move for goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale, to boost Newcastle’s ranks.
The main focus of the transfer window, however, has been on wantaway striker Alexander Isak. Howe says “everything is in play” with the striker’s future amid interest from Liverpool, with Isak likely to be left out on Saturday following disciplinary action from the club.
The Swedish striker would be a sizeable miss given he has scored 11 goals in his last 13 Premier League away games. Since the first game in this run on 27 October, only potential Liverpool team-mate Mohamed Salah (13) has scored more on the road than Isak.
His absence could be greatly felt, too, considering Newcastle have failed to win any of their last five Premier League games without Isak (D3 L2), and have not scored a goal without him in the last three of those.
Should Isak be missing as expected, there is a chance that Anthony Gordon may play in an unfamiliar role as a makeshift striker, with 22-year-old William Osula having played just 906 minutes of Premier League football coming into 2025-26.
Gordon started in this role in a pre-season friendly against Atlético Madrid last weekend, but was withdrawn with an ankle injury. Howe was quick to downplay the injury post-match, however: “We think he’s got an ankle problem. Initially, maybe thought it was a muscle problem but the good news is that we think it is just a twist. So the initial feeling is that he should be okay.”
Regardless of the Isak saga, Newcastle will aim to keep an impressive streak going. They have won their opening league match in each of the last three seasons, more times than they had in the previous 14 campaigns combined (W2 D4 L8).
Keeping that run up will prove a tough challenge at Villa Park, where Unai Emery’s side are unbeaten in their last 21 home games in all competitions (W15 D6) and have won each of their last eight. That is their longest run without defeat at home since a run of 24 between September 1976 and May 1977.
Like their visitors, Villa have been fairly quiet as of yet in the transfer market. Defender Yasin Özcan and forward Evann Guessand have joined from Kasimpasa and Nice, respectively, while goalkeeper Marco Bizot was signed from Brest.
Bizot may make his debut with Emiliano Martínez suspended after his final-day red card in the controversial defeat at Manchester United, where Villa were left aggrieved with Morgan Rogers‘ disallowed goal for a foul on Altay Bayindir.
Rogers could miss the opener, though, owing to an ankle sprain suffered in pre-season. He would be another sorely missed absentee, given his six assists from April to the end of the 2024-25 campaign were the most in the Premier League.
Ollie Watkins became Villa’s highest scorer in the Premier League era last season. He will again lead the line at home to one of his favoured opponents, having scored in all four of his Premier League home games against Newcastle (5 goals).
The England striker has failed to score in all of his four MD 1 appearances in the competition, though.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Newcastle were thrashed 4-1 on their last trip to Villa Park in April. Fabian Schär cancelled out Watkins’ early opener, but strikes from Ian Maatsen and Amadou Onana, as well as Dan Burn‘s own goal, helped Villa to a thumping win.
That continued a torrid run for the visitors, who have lost five of their last six Premier League trips to Villa Park. The exception came in a 3-1 win in January 2024 thanks to a Schär double.
However, Villa haven’t won consecutive Premier League games against Newcastle since completing the double over them in 2004-05.
This will be the second time in three seasons that this pair have met on the opening day, with Newcastle smashing Villa 5-1 at St. James’ Park to start the 2023-24 campaign.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction
The Opta supercomputer swayed towards a home victory as Aston Villa triumphed over Newcastle in 42.6% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
The Magpies still boasted a 32% chance of victory in the same data-led sims, while the draw occurred 25.4% of the time.
Looking ahead to the season, Newcastle finished fourth most often in 9.5% of Opta’s pre-season Premier League predictions, while a fifth-place position was the most likely outcome for Villa in 9.6%.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa: Marco Bizot, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen, Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans, Leon Bailey, Emiliano Buendía, Donyell Malen, Ollie Watkins.
Newcastle United: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Fabian Schär, Dan Burn, Tino Livramento, Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimarães, Joelinton, Anthony Elanga, Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this Saturday lunchtime at Villa Park, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction: Will Villa’s Exceptional Unbeaten Home Run Continue? Opta Analyst.
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