This follows up from the Q2 preliminary GDP report here earlier. NIESR is projecting the UK economy to then post 0.5% q/q growth in Q3, citing "supportive fiscal policy counteracting fragile external conditions and as the rate of labour market cooling slows". Adding to that, "negative growth in April and May will also mechanically help growth figures in the third quarter".
It's a bit of an early call, so the institute is attaching a couple of caveats to their projection. They note that "the fragility of the public finances anticipates fiscal tightening in the Autumn Budget" and that prolonged policy uncertainty could worsen the outlook for UK debt. As such, that poses a considerable risk to their Q3 growth estimate above.
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