Economists are divided on the outlook for China’s July economic data, due Friday, with some expecting signs of resilience while others anticipate a further slowdown in domestic momentum.
ANZ Research analysts forecast improvements across retail sales, industrial production, and fixed-asset investment, even as trade tensions persist. They see these indicators reflecting a degree of stabilisation in activity, supported by targeted policy measures and ongoing export strength.
In contrast, Moody’s Analytics projects a broad-based deceleration.
It expects retail sales growth to slow to 4% year-on-year from 4.8% in June, industrial production growth to ease to 6.5% from 6.8%, and fixed-asset investment growth to dip to 2.6% from 2.8%.Moody’s cites weak confidence as a drag on investment and domestic demand.
The data will follow weekend inflation figures showing the producer price index down 3.6% from a year earlier and consumer prices unchanged, underscoring persistent deflationary pressures in parts of the economy.
Friday’s release will be closely watched for clues on whether China’s recent policy moves are gaining traction, or if further stimulus will be needed to shore up growth in the second half of the year.
Data due at 0200 GMT on Friday, August 15, 2025, which is 2200 US Eastern time on Thursday, August 14, 2025
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