Volodymyr Zelensky is between a “rock and a hard place” as he tries to balance Donald Trump’s eagerness to secure a peace deal and public opinion, experts have said, amid reports the Ukrainian president has softened his negotiating position.
Zelensky is said to have told European leaders that he would reject any proposal in which Ukraine had to give up further territory, but that Russia could be allowed to retain some of the land it has taken, a softening of the President’s position, The Telegraph reported, citing an unnamed Western official.
The report follows Trump suggesting a future peace deal could include “some swapping of territories”.
While Ukrainians wait to see what comes out of Friday’s meeting in Alaska between Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart, they are “extraordinarily weary after three and a half years in this war”, John Lough, Head of Foreign Policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, told The i Paper.
Last week, a new poll by Gallup showed 69 per cent of people in Ukraine were in favour of a negotiated end to the war with Russia, marking a near-complete reversal when, soon after Russia’s full-scale invasion, 73 per cent favoured fighting until victory.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in 2019 (Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP)Despite more Ukrainians wanting to seek a negotiated end to the war, Dr Volodymyr Ishchenko, a Ukrainian researcher and author of Ukraine from Maiden to War, said there is a “bigger and bigger gap between what people say they are willing to do and what they are actually willing to do”.
“It is a different question if you look at what kind of compromise they would be willing to accept,” he added. “They would still reject [ceding] territory, especially official recognition.”
As a result, Zelensky now finds himself “between a rock and a hard place”, said Director of International Security at Royal United Services Institute Dr Neil Melvin, “between Trump and Ukrainian public opinion”.
“Ukrainians may be willing, as part of a ceasefire, to freeze the line of contact on a de facto basis, but not de jure,” Melvin continued.
“As soon as you go down that path, you would have to hold a referendum, which could threaten the unity of Ukraine.”
Under the Ukrainian constitution, no president is permitted to change the country’s borders.
However, Trump lashed out at Zelensky on Monday when the Ukrainian President suggested he would not surrender Ukraine’s land to Russia.
Four possible outcomes for Ukraine being floated before the Alaska meeting on FridayTrump said: “I was a little bothered by the fact that Zelensky was saying I have to get constitutional approval [to cede territory].”
Lough rejected the idea there was “any sign of softening” on Zelensky’s part, but said there was “an understanding and acceptance of the situation”.
As far back as December, Zelensky admitted Ukraine did “not have the strength” to recover land occupied by Moscow’s forces. “We cannot give up our territories. The Ukrainian constitution forbids us to do so,” he said. “De facto, these territories are now controlled by the Russians.”
Melvin does not believe it is possible to say whether Zelensky has changed his negotiation position because “we do not have any clear negotiating positions from either side”, owing to “confusion over what the summit is about”.
Trump himself recently described his first meeting with Putin since 2019 as nothing more than a “feel-out meeting”. He has also said, however, that he would “try to get back” Ukraine’s “oceanfront property” during Friday’s discussions.
“It is possible Zelensky has a more flexible position,” Melvin said, “to encompass this unclear negotiation.”
Even if Zelensky were able to cede Russian-controlled territory, it was “very unlikely” for that to be enough for Putin to agree to an end to the war, Melvin added.
Lough agreed, pointing out that while Putin did want to “lock in gains” his military had achieved on the front line, there was still a long list of grievances he would want addressing in a future peace plan. This would include assurances that Ukraine would not join Nato, and putting limits on the Ukrainian armed forces – terms Zelensky has shown absolutely no signs of agreeing to.
“Putin’s goal is to subjugate Ukraine,” Melvin said.
Trump said he was a ‘little bothered’ by Zelensky saying he needs constitutional approval to change Ukraine’s borders (Photo: Saul Loeb/ AFP via Getty Images)Ishchenko told The i Paper that the Russian leader would not want to freeze the front line where it was if Putin believed he could take the whole of Donbas “in a matter of weeks or months”, adding: “The front line is so rapidly developing.”
In the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, made up of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, Moscow now controls all of Luhansk, while Kyiv still holds onto around one third of Donetsk.
Russian troops in Donetsk, however, are believed to be making small but important gains in seizing the key transportation and logistics hub of Pokrovsk. Dubbed “the gateway to Donetsk” by Russian media, Pokrovsk could provide a platform for Moscow to drive north towards the two biggest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in Donetsk – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Russia also recently claimed that it had seized the strategically important town of Chasiv Yar.
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Looking to Friday, Melvin described the meeting between the US and Russian Presidents as a “stalling tactic” on Putin’s part, telling The i Paper: “His main goal at the moment is to show willingness to negotiate to neutralise American opposition.”
Melvin believes Putin will attempt to “downgrade” the issue of Ukraine in his talks with Trump, as he attempts to shift the agenda towards “running the world” and the countries’ positions on China, nuclear weapons and the Middle East.
With commentators expecting the experienced Russian leader to easily out-negotiate Trump, Ukrainians will “hold their breath”, Lough said, hoping for some sign of progress.
Ishchenko, who was born and lived in western Ukraine before Russia’s full-scale invasion, said Ukrainians are split on their expectations for Friday’s meeting, with some believing it would deliver nothing but empty words.
“Some people,” Ishchenko added, “look with hope as they are desperate for peace as soon as possible.”
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