Who will win La Liga? Who will qualify for the Champions League? And which clubs are likeliest to be relegated? We answer all the key questions with our La Liga 2025-26 season predictions via the Opta supercomputer.
La Liga is back. The 2025-26 season is very nearly upon us, with Girona and Rayo Vallecano kicking off the new campaign on Friday.
Barcelona head into the season as reigning champions – indeed, they won both La Liga and the Copa del Rey last term, while also triumphing in the Supercopa de España.
It was a brilliant debut season in charge for Hansi Flick, and one that saw two of his star attackers – Raphinha and teenage sensation Lamine Yamal – propel themselves right into Ballon d’Or contention.
While Barça will look to build on last season’s success, it is the start of a new era for Real Madrid under the tutelage of Xabi Alonso.
A run to the semi-finals of the FIFA Club World Cup this summer, in which they were ultimately thrashed by Paris Saint-Germain, was Alonso’s starting point, but the former Bayer Leverkusen coach was keen to stress that was the end of the previous chapter, and not the beginning of a new one.
Atlético Madrid rounded out the traditional ‘big three’ last season, and they have been busy rebuilding Diego Simeone’s squad this summer. Athletic Club, who finished fourth to secure a place in the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 2014-15, have made a statement of intent by keeping hold of star winger Nico Williams, while Villarreal are also back dining at Europe’s top table.
There was little to separate eighth through to 12th place last season – indeed, there were just six points between over-achieving Vallecano (eighth) and Valencia in 12th, while a glut of teams – including Sevilla – can consider themselves fortunate not to have been dragged into the bottom three.
Among the newly-promoted clubs, Real Oviedo are making their grand return to the top flight after over two decades away. They kick off their campaign at Villarreal on Friday, before hosting Real Madrid in their second outing back in the big time.
Here, calling on the 10,000 data-led simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, we forecast how the 2025-26 La Liga season will shake up.
Who Will Win La Liga?
Barça only finished four points clear of second-placed Real Madrid last season, but they were by some distance the best team in Spain across the campaign.
The Blaugrana plundered 102 goals in La Liga – they were the only team across Europe’s top five divisions to score a century of league goals in 2024-25 – while they also led the way for expected goals (92.2) and shots (678). Only Bayern Munich (2,706) recorded more passes into the final third than Barça (2,626).
Barça’s success was spearheaded by their sensational attacking displays. Raphinha registered 56 goal involvements (34 goals, 22 assists) in all competitions, while only Kylian Mbappé (43) scored more goals among players from Europe’s top five leagues in all competitions than Robert Lewandowski (42).
Yamal led La Liga for assists (13 – four clear of any other player), while the 18-year-old also attempted (309) and completed (161) the most dribbles of any player in Spain’s top flight. To put that last stat into perspective, Sevilla’s Dodi Lukébakio recorded the second-most successful dribbles in La Liga, with 84.
Barça missed out on Athletic star Nico Williams but have brought in Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United to bolster their attack, which also features Ferran Torres. The Spain international has been linked with a move to Al-Nassr, but he proved his worth with 10 La Liga goals in just 1,100 minutes of action in the competition last season.
It is no surprise, then, that our model fancies Barcelona as the favourites – they retain the title in 46.5% of the supercomputer’s simulations. There is a 26.4% chance of Flicks’ team finishing second, and just a 13.6% likelihood that they miss out on the top three – something that hasn’t happened since 2003.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have a 32.1% chance of regaining the crown. They are heading into a new era under Alonso and moved to strengthen their squad ahead of the Club World Cup.
No defender in Premier League history has more assists to their name than Trent Alexander-Arnold (64), who will be aiming to replicate the success of his England team-mate Jude Bellingham in the Spanish capital.
Dean Huijsen had an exceptional season at Bournemouth and has already impressed on the international stage with Spain, while in Franco Mastantuono, Madrid have signed one of South America’s hottest prospects.
After a subdued start to his Madrid career, Mbappé went on to break the club record for goals in a debut season and finished as La Liga’s top scorer. Vinícius Júnior did not have the best of campaigns, but Alonso will be confident of helping the Brazilian rediscover his best form.
The model actually gives Madrid a higher chance of winning the title than placing second (28.7%), while they finish third in 16.9% of the sims.
Atlético are given just an 11.7% chance of winning their third league crown under Simeone, with third place their most likely destination (21.2%). The supercomputer forecasts a tussle for the top four as a more probable outcome than a title win.
Villarreal (3.7%) and Athletic (2.9%) are the only other teams to have a greater-than 2% chance of winning the title, but it is hard to see anybody outside of La Liga’s established elite challenging for the trophy. Not since Valencia in 2004 has a club other than Madrid, Barça or Atlético been crowned champions.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
Whereas the race for the title looks set to be between the big three yet again, 19 of the 20 La Liga clubs finished in the top four in at least 1% of the model’s 10,000 simulations.
The top five clubs in La Liga qualified for the Champions League last season, so a fifth-place finish may well be enough – if that were to be the case again this time around, then all 20 sides are in with a shot.
Let’s focus on the main contenders, though.
Villarreal and Athletic are expected to tussle it out for fourth spot – the Yellow Submarine have a 13.8% chance of clinching it, with the Basque club’s probability coming in at 13.2%.
Overall, Villarreal’s chances of securing a top-four finish, and therefore guaranteeing themselves a Champions League place, are 37.7%. The likelihood of Athletic doing so is 34.1%.
But while Athletic retained their star player, Villarreal have sold two of theirs.
Thierno Barry, on the back of scoring 11 La Liga goals last season, has left for Everton, while Alex Baena has joined Atlético.
Baena was La Liga’s most creative player in 2024-25, crafting 95 chances and recording a league-leading 12.6 expected assists. His nine assists was joint-second in the competition, along with Raphinha.
So, there is an element of a rebuild for coach Marcelino.
Athletic, meanwhile, will be hoping to build from a strong core. Nico Williams recorded 10 goal involvements in La Liga (five goals, five assists), while his older brother Inaki contributed 14 (six goals, eight assists). Oihan Sancet top-scored with 15 goals from midfield, so there is plenty of talent at Ernesto Valverde’s disposal.
Valverde built his team on solid foundations last season – only Atlético (33.6) had a lower xGA than Athletic (38.4) in La Liga last term. If they can keep up that level of performance, there is no doubting their top-four credentials.
Real Betis, who reached the UEFA Conference League final last season, are predicted to finish sixth, though the probability of them finishing in the top four drops down to 17.6%; that is almost half of Athletic’s chances.
Real Sociedad had a disappointing season by their standards, missing out on Europe altogether. They finished 11th, their lowest placing since they rounded out the 2017-18 season in 12th.
Sergio Francisco has taken over from long-serving coach Imanol Alguacil, having moved up from La Real’s B-team. Francisco succeeded new Real Madrid boss Alonso in that role three years ago and will be hoping for a similar career trajectory.
La Real, though, are more likely to be relegated (10.8%) than they are to finish in the top four (7.5%), according to the supercomputer.
Osasuna (11.2%), Celta Vigo (10.1%), Valencia (7.3%) look unlikely to push for the Champions League, but are certainly among the European contenders, although Osasuna did have the fourth-worst xGA in the division last term (54.7). Girona were the surprise package in La Liga in 2023-24 but finished way down in 16th last season, and have just a 3% probability of making the top four.
Sevilla, seven-time UEFA Europa League/UEFA Cup champions, finished 17th in 2024-25, and their chances of a top-six finish rank at only 8.7%.
Rayo Vallecano punched well above their weight to secure their joint-best finish in La Liga (eighth) and make it into the Conference League qualifiers. They have a 25.4% of repeating a top-eight finish, but our model is forecasting a bottom-half finish.
Who Will Be Relegated From La Liga?
There are no overwhelming favourites for the drop, which will be music to the ears of the fans of newly-promoted trio Real Oviedo, Elche and Levante.
That being said, those three teams are the ones that our model just about fancies to be heading to the second tier come the end of the season.
Oviedo, who beat Mirandes in the promotion play-off at the end of June, are back in the big time for the first time since 2000-01. They count former Arsenal playmaker Santi Cazorla among their key players, and the 40-year-old will be determined to enjoy his La Liga swansong.
They hardly have a serene start, facing Cazorla’s former club Villarreal in their opening match before hosting Real Madrid a week later and rounding out August against Real Sociedad.
Oviedo went down in 32.6% of the model’s sims, though Elche are actually the team most likely to finish bottom of the pile (13.1%).
Elche’s chances of survival stand at 67.4%, so the same as Oviedo’s.
Levante, who topped the second tier last season, have the best chance of staying up among the promoted teams, at 70.6%.
Getafe finished in 13th in 2024-25, though only two points above the bottom three, such was the congested nature of the bottom half. They go down in 28.7% of the supercomputer’s scenarios.
Espanyol will be hoping that the departure of star goalkeeper Joan Garcia to their city rivals Barça does not derail their chances – the probability of them staying up comes in at 75.2%.
Sevilla’s decline in the last couple of years has been stark. They won the Europa League in 2023, beating José Mourinho’s Roma in the final, yet have since finished 13th and 17th. Once a regular top-four contender, the Andalusian club will simply be hoping they can avoid a relegation tussle this year – according to our model, there is a 23.7% likelihood that they go down.
Opta-Simulated La Liga Table
After simulating every match of the 2025-26 La Liga season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and rank teams positionally. Here are the Opta supercomputer results from those sims:
1st: Barcelona – 81.6 average points2nd: Real Madrid – 78.43rd: Atlético Madrid – 70.74th: Villarreal – 62.75th: Athletic Club – 61.56th: Real Betis – 55.67th: Osasuna – 52.38th: Celta Vigo – 51.39th: Real Sociedad – 49.810th: Valencia – 49.011th: Rayo Vallecano – 47.212th: Mallorca – 45.113th: Alavés – 45.114th: Girona – 44.215th: Sevilla – 43.916th: Espanyol – 43.617th: Getafe – 42.318th: Levante – 42.019th: Real Oviedo – 41.020th: Elche – 41.0
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances. The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
La Liga Predictions 2025-26: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Opta Analyst.
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