How Trump’s state-map meddling started a political arms race ...Middle East

SEATTLE – An aggressive push by Donald Trump to create safe Republican constituencies through “extreme gerrymandering” could end up badly backfiring, experts say, and even help Democrats win the House of Representatives next year. 

Republicans control the House but only very narrowly, holding 219 seats compared with 212 for Democrats.

Against the backdrop of a low approval rating, the signing into law of a controversial bill that takes away healthcare from millions of Americans, and  the fact the party out of power tends to do better in “off-year” elections, Trump has demanded that Texas redraw its congressional map in a manner that would would create five seats in areas currently held by Democrats, but which the Republicans hope to win. 

“We are entitled to five more seats,” Trump claimed this week. 

The redrawing of maps is typically linked to new population data from a census that happens every 10 years.  However, the latest redistricting took place just four years ago, and this latest attempt at redistricting in Texas is not linked to any new data.

In about half of America’s states, including Texas, state local legislatures have responsibility for drawing up the maps. 

Elsewhere – including California – they are drawn up by independent committees, part of an effort to remove partisan politics from the process.

Although there is no federal law to prevent states creating politically lopsided seats, this blatant push for more seats by Republicans has been dubbed “extreme gerrymandering”.

In what is already a minority-majority state, the new maps would hamper the ability of black and hispanic voters to elect representatives of their choice by dividing up such districts using voter data.

Under the proposal, Republicans have chosen five Democratic-held districts, cut out blue areas and moved them to constituencies safely held by one or another party. In the space, they have added areas that are solidly Republican.

One of the most striking examples is the 9th Congressional district in Houston, currently held by Democrat Representative Al Green. The proposed new 9th district would take up what are currently Republican areas in Harris County, located to the east of the city.

Green said that the proposals were “consistent with the well-documented history of racist voting rights discrimination in Texas”.

But if the Republicans go ahead, Democrats can respond in kind.

They are already preparing to retaliate, redrawing maps in “blue” states such as California and New York, and cementing their hold in areas where they hold the advantage. If there is a “race to the bottom”, as many as 10 states could end up as new battlegrounds, ranging from Maryland to Missouri.

“Democrats are trying to make that risk very salient – that they’re going to retaliate,” Professor Michael Kang, a political scientist at Northwestern University in Chicago, tells The i Paper.

“That’s why they’re trying to make Republicans worry about retaliation because that’s the only move they have.”

In Texas, Democrats are not taking things lying down. To try to prevent a vote on a new map, members of the legislature have fled the state in order to rob their opponents of the quorum of numbers required to pass a bill. 

Some ended up in Illinois, where they were welcomed by Governor JB Pritzker, while others went to New York, whose governor is also among those prepared to change her state’s map.

Under pressure from Trump, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has claimed to have asked the FBI to track down the approximately 50 missing Democratic legislators he accused of breaking the law by not being present, threatening them with arrest, pay restriction and being removed from office.

But the legislators are aware that grassroots supporters are delighted by their bold actions and willingness to put up a fight, something they say has been largely missing among Democrats since Trump returned to the Oval Office.

Former Democratic congressman and presidential hopeful Beto O’Rourke has been helping to raise money for the legislators to cover the cost of both their travel and any fines.

He told CNN he hoped they stayed away for as long as necessary. “I actually believe that they can stay out long enough to stop this steal in Texas.”

The gerrymandering of constituencies by both Democrats and Republicans has been a routine feature of US politics dating back to at least 1812.

The term was apparently first coined that year after Massachusetts Governor Elbridge Gerry brought into law a plan that included a district many thought looked like a salamander. Opponents then nicknamed the district after him. 

Matt Angle, a Democratic Party strategist based in Austin, the state capital of Texas, told The i Paper it was essential that his party met this moment.

“You can’t reform this system until you win power in it,” he said. “To do that, you’ve got to be willing to play by the rules that are presented. I’ve said it before – the high road’s not available.”

Texas has 38 congressional districts, second only to California, which has 52.

Yet while Trump beat Kamala Harris in the popular vote in Texas 56-42,  Republicans have twice as many seats as Democrats: 25 compared with 12.

In California Governor Gavin Newsom, widely expected to be among the Democratic candidates for president in 2028, has said he is making preparations for potential redistricting.

“We’re going to fight fire with fire,” he said. “We also will punch above our weight in terms of the impact of what we’re doing.”

In New York, another blue state which has 26 congressional seats, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul has said she is looking at all the options. She echoed: “You have to fight fire with fire.”

Reports suggest many Republicans are fearful of the potential for backlash from voters who are not enamoured with Trump’s flagship legislation, the so-called Big Beautiful Bill, that critics say gives large tax cuts to the wealthy, sharply trims benefits and will add to the national debt.

Yet the President has been suggesting that this blatant attempt to cling to power through redrawing maps is the way to pick up seats. The New York Times quoted an official close to the President who said his strategy when it came to the maps was to promote “maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time”.

square SARAH BAXTER

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Were the President to embarrass himself with a poor showing in a midterm election it would not be the first time. In 2022, he backed extreme or otherwise unsuitable Senate candidates such Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano, who were easily defeated by their Democratic opponents.

Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist, also based in Texas, believes that as many as 10 states could take up redistricting in a “political arms race”.

Yet he told The i Paper that at the end of the process it might all balance out between the parties anyway.

“I’m not even sure which party would be more likely to net out,” he said. “There a scenario where the five seats [that Republicans] pick up in Texas could get wiped out entirely by whatever California does.”

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