Reform has shattered the UK’s political consensus on climate change by threatening to scrap net zero, remove green subsidies and boost the fossil fuel industry.
The party’s leader Nigel Farage has described the UK’s net zero target as “complete and utter madness” and its deputy leader Richard Tice has said renewaable energy is a “massive con”.
But the party’s hardline stance is increasingly out of line with its growing support base, which includes more young people and fewer climate sceptics.
Polling shared with The i Paper shows that a growing number of Reform voters are less likely to agree with the party’s stance on climate, with one in five new supporters agreeing that Tice, who is the party’s energy spokesperson, is “misleading” the public on climate change.
As support for green energy remains high across the UK’s political spectrum, experts say Reform’s climate policies could serve as a “ceiling” that prevents them gaining more moderate voters.
What do Reform voters think about climate change?
Reform leaders’ rhetoric on the climate crisis has become increasingly extreme; Andrea Jenkyns, Reform’s mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, even said recently that she didn’t believe climate change was a thing.
But polling by More in Common, shared with The i Paper, suggests Reform voters’ stance on climate is far more nuanced, and increasingly out of line with the party’s leadership.
Overall, the polling found that those who have started supporting Reform since the 2024 election are less climate sceptic than those who voted for Nigel Farage’s party at the last election.
For example, Reform has said it will scrap the UK’s legally binding target to hit net zero by 2050, but new supporters are split on this issue with 30 per cent believing it is a good policy, 35 per cent thinking it’s bad and 35 per cent going neither way.
Reform has also taken a strong anti-renewable stance, saying that it will end public subsidies and tax the industry. The party has also said it will tax farmers who put solar panels on their land.
But the party’s voters are not anti-renewable, according to More in Common’s polling, which showed 56 per cent of new supporters and 50 per cent of 2024 voters think the UK investing in renewable energy is a good thing.
Meanwhile, just 24 per cent of new reform supporters and 29 per cent of 2024 voters support Reform’s policy of taxing farmers who use their land for solar panels.
Indeed support for renewables remains widespread across the political spectrum.
New polling by YouGov, commissioned by Friends of the Earth and shared with The i Paper, found 80 per cent of Britons were supportive of the UK expanding its renewable energy infrastructure.
While Reform voters were the least supportive group, 65 per cent were still either strongly supportive or tended to support renewables.
So why has Reform taken such an anti-climate stance when polling has consistently shown its voters think favorably of renewables?
“Politicians consistently underestimate levels of public support [for climate action],” said Rebecca Willis, professor in energy and climate governance at the University of Lancaster.
“Politicians hear from the loudest voices and on climate there is a silent majority who have a nagging concern about what’s happening to the climate.”
However, Professor Willis said an overall support for achieving net zero should not be taken as “a carte blanche for any climate policy”.
For Reform voters, this means many may be supportive of renewables, but less supportive of policies that restrict car use, for example.
Anouschka Rajah, research and data analyst at More in Common, said Reform’s anti-net zero stance is “capitalising on some of the anger that there is towards energy bills and energy companies in particular”.
On social media, Reform figures link net zero to higher energy bills, which is an issue that lands with Reform supporters.
While Reform voters generally say they’re concerned about climate change, it’s not as motivating an issue as the cost of living, Rajah said.
The impact of net zero on energy bills is complex. While there may be a short term increase as our bills subsidise the rollout of renewables, in the long term bills are expected to lower as the UK transitions away from gas.
A ‘ceiling’ for reform
However, Rajah said Reform’s hardline climate stance could alienate supporters as the party looks to grow its base, particularly as it attracts more young people.
In 2024, 16 per cent of Reform voters were under 35, whereas Made in Common’s latest poll finds 26 per cent of current Reform supporters voters are under 35.
“The group who are effectively Reform’s base, their 2024 voters, are different on this issue from those voters who they’re now trying to appeal to. I think it represents a potential ceiling to Reform to grow that coalition if the party remains out of line with where its potential voters are at,” Rajah said.
This conflict can be seen playing out online. In one popular forum for Reform supporters, points of discussion include ‘Is the right really opposed to renewable energy?’ and self-declared Reform supporters describe Tice as “out of touch” on climate.
There is also evidence some prominent Reform figures are not in line with the party’s tough anti-climate stance.
Luke Campbell, Reform’s newly elected mayor for Hull and East Yorkshire has been a champion of green energy in the region, arguing that renewables can “create local jobs and help local businesses”.
Sam Hall, director at the Conservative Environment Network, said Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who has also been wavering on net zero, should learn from polling and not follow the same route as Reform.
“I think there’s a good opportunity for the Conservative Party politically, in the sense that Reform have ignored climate change, they’ve gone really anti-renewable energy,” he said.
“I think a positive offer on renewable energy and climate change more generally will be important for appealing to Conservative voters across the UK.”
Reform was contacted for comment.
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