The four danger points that lie ahead for the Ukraine peace talks ...Middle East

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska next Friday to discuss a potential deal to end the war in Ukraine.

It will be the first time the Russian leader has visited the US since 2015, when he spoke at the UN assembly under the presidency of Barack Obama.

On Friday, Trump said that any peace deal would likely involve the “swapping of territories” between Russia and Ukraine, something Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out repeatedly.

Despite this clear obstacle, the US President has insisted that a ceasefire deal close, giving the impression that negotiators could be edging towards a compromise.

Here are four factors that could shape the talks.

In a statement released on Saturday, Zelensky said that Kyiv is “ready for real decisions that can bring peace” but rejected the idea of Ukraine giving up territory.

“The answer to the Ukrainian territorial issue is already in the Constitution of Ukraine,” he posted on Telegram. “No one will and cannot deviate from this. Ukrainians will not give their land to the occupier.”

He also emphasised that a lasting peace must include Ukraine’s voice at the table. Zelensky is not expected to attend next week’s summit, though one White House official told CBS News that he could still be involved in some capacity.

Volodymyr Zelensky said the answer to the Ukrainian territorial question already is in the Constitution of Ukraine (Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service)

Moscow currently holds around 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, along with Crimea, which was seized in 2014.

While Zelensky has stressed his willingness to negotiate, accepting the loss of a fifth of Ukraine’s territory would be a red line.

The Ukrainian held a call with Sir Keir Starmer on Saturday where they agreed on the need for a “truly lasting peace” in Ukraine and there is a danger that Russia reduces “everything to discussions of the impossible”.

French President, Emmanuel Macron, who helped established the coalition of the willing with Starmer, said in a social media post on X that the future of Ukraine cannot be decided without the Ukrainians.

Could Putin scale back territorial demands?

The White House could press Putin to back down from his territorial demands, creating space for a compromise more palatable to Kyiv.

According to reports, US officials are attempting to persuade European leaders to accept a deal that would involve Russia handing back some of its land in Ukraine.

Putin has previously made several bold demands including the end of foreign military aid and supply of intelligence to Ukraine, the refusal of any western troops in Ukraine and that Kyiv never join Nato.

It is has now been reported that Putin has relaxed his demand to annex the five eastern regions of Ukraine: Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.

During a meeting between special envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin, the Russian president said he would settle for Donestk, Luhansk and the Crimea, the Wall Street Journal said.

During his campaign for the presidency, Trump boasted that he could secure a deal to end fighting in Ukraine within a day.

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But since returning to the White House in January, he has spoken with Putin on several occasions without substantial progress.

Last month, frustrated at Putin for ignoring his calls to stop bombing Ukrainian cities, Trump vowed to impose additional sanctions on Russia and introduce secondary tariffs targeting countries that purchase its oil if the Kremlin did not move toward a settlement.

The deadline passed on Friday, but the White House is yet to make any new announcement on tariffs, instead hinting at talks between Trump and Putin.

Imposing fresh sanctions could risk Putin cancelling the talks before they begin.

Sky News has suggested that the US Treasury Department will instead lift sanctions on Putin to facilitate his trip, as it did when his investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev travelled to Washington in April.

Trump the dealmaker

Trump has consistently pledged to end the war in Ukraine multiple times during his re-election campaign.

While so far unsuccessful with the Ukraine war, his numerous tariff threats and trade wars have seen some success in levelling, so he might say, America’s trade in balance with some countries.

More recently, Trump announced a truce between Armenia Azerbaijan. The deal brings an end to a conflict between the two countries since 1991 with the fall of the Soviet Union.

Trump has claimed the victory in not only ending that conflict, but also in negotiating an end to fighting between India and Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, Thailand and Cambodia, and Serbia and Kosovo.

Five countries, have since backed Trump to receive a Nobel Peace Prize, namely Israel.

Asked whether he was hoping to win the Nobel peace prize, Trump said: “I’m not doing it for that … I want to save lives.”

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