Feds Musalem: Economic activity appears stable, not increasing or decreasing ...Middle East

Economic activity appears stable, not now increasing or decreasing

Bankers report that funding pressures have diminished, credit quality is good

Companies continue to report a shortage of skilled labor

Firms remain cautious on capital spending and hiring

Companies are using different strategies to adapt to tariffs, including cost-cutting and negotiating with suppliers

Companies are not yet resorting to layoffs to reduce costs

Companies that are most dependent on imports are passing along costs; those closer to consumers are less likely to raise prices so far

The Fed is now missing on its inflation target but not missing on its employment mandate; labor market around full employment

Looking ahead there is a risk that the Fed may miss on both inflation and employment, with downside risk to jobs

Likely that most of the impact of tariffs on inflation will fade

There is a reasonable probability that there may be some inflation persistence

Labor market is in balance, but economic activity has been weaker and that poses risks to jobs

The Fed is balancing risks to both sides of its mandate right now

Fed voter Musalem’s comments present a cautiously balanced view, with a lean toward hawkishness as he sees the Fed missing on inflation and not on employment target. He favors keeping policy where it is.

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