Who will win the Premier League? Who will qualify for the Champions League? And which clubs are likeliest to be relegated to the Championship? We answer all the key questions with our Premier League 2025-26 season predictions via the Opta supercomputer.
It’s almost time to press the reset button and go again with the 2025-26 Premier League season.
Liverpool’s success in 2024-25 means all eyes will be on Arne Slot’s men to see if they can go back-to-back, while Arsenal and Manchester City will be aiming to put up a better fight than they managed last season.
There was a fierce tussle for the top four last season, which became a top five for Champions League qualification after English teams performed well in Europe. Plenty of clubs will have their sights set on securing European football again.
We said goodbye to Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton in May, and now we welcome back Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland. Will the promoted teams survive this time, or could we see the third campaign in a row in which all three head straight back down?
It’s becoming harder and harder to predict the outcome of the Premier League; for example, who guessed that Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur would finish as low as they did last year? That’s why we’re glad we have the Opta supercomputer to call on.
Having run the numbers, we can confirm that 19 of the 20 competing teams won the title at least once in our 10,000 season simulations. So yes, there is a scenario in which Leeds boss Daniel Farke holds the Premier League trophy aloft at Elland Road in May. Granted, it is rather unlikely, but that it happens at all goes to show how unpredictable the supercomputer feels England’s top flight is this season.
The competitiveness between 2nd-17th last season must have influenced its calculations quite a bit as, in the 2024-25 pre-season projections, only eight teams won the Premier League title.
As for relegation, every single team was relegated at least seven times, while 19 finished bottom in at least one sim. The one simulation out of 10,000 in which Arsenal finished 20th probably won’t go down too well with the AFTV guys should it occur in real life.
So, let’s get into the nitty gritty of the projections. Here are the Opta supercomputer’s season predictions for the Premier League 2025-26.
Who Will Win the Premier League?
We were all expecting an exciting title race last season, with the trio of Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool fancied to push one another as they had done the year before. However, as it turned out, Liverpool strolled to their second Premier League crown and a record-equalling 20th English top-flight title, securing first place with four games remaining.
Arne Slot had just a 5.1% chance of winning the Premier League in his first season at Anfield last summer according to the supercomputer, but it understandably now gives the Dutchman a much better chance of landing the big prize again.
There has been plenty of change on the pitch over the summer, with Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis Díaz leaving, while the tragic death of Diogo Jota will be felt at the club and beyond for the foreseeable future.
New signings Florian Wirtz, Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong and Hugo Ekitiké provide hope for the Reds to push on, which the supercomputer believes they will. Liverpool are the favourites to win the title, doing so in 28.5% of simulations.
Arsenal have finished second for the last three seasons, which is starting to be used as a stick to beat them with. It seems harsh given finishing second in such a strong league is an excellent achievement, but the fans will expect this to be the year the Gunners finally put it all together and go one better.
Mikel Arteta has also finally added a headline number nine to his ranks in Viktor Gyökeres. Whether the big Swede can score with anything like the regularity he did in Portugal will go a long way to deciding how strong their title charge is. The Opta supercomputer has almost doubled Arsenal’s chances of winning the league from last season (12.2%) to 24.3%, though it also believes their likeliest placement is a fourth season of finishing second.
Man City were going for a fifth title in a row last season but faltered badly, especially after Rodri’s knee injury sustained early in the campaign kept him out for almost the entirety of it. He’s back now, though, and Pep Guardiola will expect standards to return to the heights he demands from his team.
They were heavily backed by the supercomputer last season with an 82.2% likelihood of winning the league, but that has understandably reduced considerably ahead of 2025-26. City regain their crown in just 18.8% of sims.
Chelsea are on a high after winning the FIFA Club World Cup last month and will be looking to add a first Premier League title since 2016-17 to their trophy cabinet. Enzo Maresca’s young squad continues to be cultivated at quite a rate, but whether Cole Palmer and co. can find the consistency needed to mount a title challenge is anyone’s guess. The supercomputer’s guess is that they win the league in 8.8% of simulations, with a likely finish of fourth again.
Other notable numbers see Aston Villa and Newcastle United win the title almost an exactly even number of times (5.1%), while Manchester United (0.6%) and Tottenham (0.3%) are deemed somewhat unlikely to go from deep in the bottom half to first place in the space of a year.
Sunderland are the only team who do not win the Premier League title in any of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.
Never mind, there’s always next season.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
The battle for Europe is likely to be far more open, as it was last season. In fact, even Sunderland finish in the top four in five of the supercomputer’s 10,000 sims.
We can’t say for certain if the Premier League will again have a fifth spot for the Champions League as it will depend on how its representatives perform in Europe this season, so these numbers are based on needing to finish in the top four, with fifth place earning a Europa League place as things stand.
Liverpool (72.8% chance of a top-four finish), Arsenal (68.5%), Manchester City (62.0%) and Chelsea (40.4%) are the favourites to finish in the top four again, but there is still plenty of hope for others.
Aston Villa agonisingly missed out on Champions League qualification after losing at Manchester United on the final day in May, but they do force their way into a top-four spot this time around in almost a third of sims, doing so 30.5% of the time.
Newcastle may be focused on desperately trying to hold on to star striker Alexander Isak, but as the supercomputer doesn’t deal in transfer speculation, it has faith Eddie Howe’s side can challenge for the European spots again despite having a Champions League campaign to navigate as well. The Magpies are projected to finish sixth most often, but they are able to secure more UCL football with a top-four finish in 29.9% of simulations.
Crystal Palace’s strong end to last season that saw them lift their first ever piece of major silverware in the FA Cup has gone down well with the supercomputer, which gives the Eagles greater than a one-in-five chance of a top-four finish. Palace manage that unlikely achievement in 21.6% of sims, ahead of rivals Brighton & Hove Albion (16.8%).
Bournemouth (10.1%) and Nottingham Forest (8.9%) will need to go some to get close to the top four, but that is certainly a better chance than the supercomputer gave either of them last summer. The Cherries’ chances back then were just 0.6%, while Forest’s were less than 0.1%. Impressive 2024-25 campaigns for both have seen the supercomputer sit up and take more notice, metaphorically speaking of course.
Manchester United could do with getting back into the Champions League soon, but Ruben Amorim’s side only do so this coming season in 6.7% of simulations, while Thomas Frank’s Spurs only do so in 5.7%. These numbers will obviously largely be based on their underperformance last time around.
Who Will Be Relegated From the Premier League?
We can already hear you saying: “The three promoted teams again!”
Yes, after only happening once in Premier League history beforehand, and not since 1997-98, the last two seasons have both seen all three promoted teams go straight back down.
It’s too soon to say it’s now a definite issue with the gap between the top flight and the second tier, but it has inevitably led to more pressure being ramped up on the newbies.
If fans of Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland are looking for hope from the supercomputer, maybe look away now. We’re afraid it is indeed backing them all to head back to the Championship. Or rather, it believes they are the likeliest trio.
That said, Leeds and Burnley do still survive more often than not. Daniel Farke’s men go down in 48.1% of sims, while Scott Parker’s Clarets do so in 45.9%. Sunderland were somewhat surprise winners of the Championship play-offs and so are relegated the most often of all 20 teams, going down in 66.4% of simulations, but with their impressive transfer window on paper, they’ll back themselves to prove the supercomputer wrong.
Wolves had a dismal start to last season but improved significantly once Vítor Pereira came in as manager, though losing Matheus Cunha to Manchester United is a blow. Wolves are fourth favourites to go down according to the supercomputer, doing so in 26.4% of sims.
Graham Potter wasn’t quite able to have the same immediate impact at West Ham when he arrived part way through last season, while the Hammers have also lost a key player this summer after Mohammed Kudus departed for Spurs. Potter will back himself to get a better tune out of his side after his first pre-season with them, but West Ham are relegated in 22.0% of simulations.
Fulham had a good 2024-25 campaign but would be a lot less happy in 2025-26 in the 14.8% of sims in which they are relegated, while Spurs finish at least one place lower than last season and go down in 13.7% of them.
Everton mark their first season at the Hill Dickinson Stadium with relegation 12.5% of the time, while Man Utd do the unthinkable in 11.1%, meaning they are likelier to go down than they are to finish in the top four (6.7%).
Liverpool are the only team not to finish bottom in any of the 10,000 simulations, but the champions did get relegated on seven occasions. Arsenal dropped to the Championship 10 times, while Man City did so 22 times.
Never say never.
Opta-Simulated Premier League Table
After simulating every match of the 2025-26 Premier League season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and rank teams positionally. Here are the Opta supercomputer results from those sims:
1st: Liverpool – 73.2 average points2nd: Arsenal – 71.93rd: Manchester City– 69.94th: Chelsea – 63.75th: Aston Villa– 60.76th: Newcastle United – 60.47th: Crystal Palace – 57.38th: Brighton & Hove Albion – 55.39th: Bournemouth – 51.410th: Brentford – 50.511th: Nottingham Forest – 50.412th: Manchester United – 49.113th: Everton – 48.514th: Tottenham Hotspur – 47.815th: Fulham – 46.916th: West Ham United – 44.017th: Wolverhampton Wanderers – 42.518th: Burnley – 36.919th: Leeds United – 36.320th: Sunderland – 31.5
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances. The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Premier League Predictions 2025-26: The Opta Supercomputer Projections Opta Analyst.
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