More context on dead-end throw rate
First, and perhaps most crucially, the stat correlates well with passer efficiency rating. That’s true despite DETR not having any context for touchdowns, interceptions, or yardage totals — things that weigh heavily on passer efficiency rating.
That’s a positive because sometimes the final outcome of a drive can be flukey and not necessarily representative of a quarterback’s success or failures. Maybe a QB led a great drive but the running back ran it in. Maybe a receiver ran the wrong route and an interception was thrown as a result. Maybe a key third-down pass was dropped or maybe a coach made a questionable fourth-down decision in the red zone.
Passing efficiency matters a great deal to winning football games. And if we can measure passing efficiency in a way that takes out some of the noisy elements of that metric, we could get a more accurate picture of quarterbacks who are consistently making winning plays.
Here’s a chart illustrating how dead-end throw rate correlates with passer efficiency rating since 2015:
Top dead-end throw rates since 2015
Here’s a look at the top-10 single-season DETR performances since the beginning of the 2015 season:
PlayerTeamSeasonDETR Joe BurrowLSU Tigers201935.10% Jayden DanielsLSU Tigers202336.39% Mac JonesAlabama Crimson Tide202037.56% Carson BeckGeorgia Bulldogs202338.35% Baker MayfieldOklahoma Sooners201738.61% C.J. StroudOhio State Buckeyes202138.73% Zach WilsonBYU Cougars202039.07% Kurtis RourkeIndiana Hoosiers202439.38% Bo NixOregon Ducks202339.54% Baker MayfieldOklahoma Sooners201639.70%Dead-End Throw Rate: Evaluating QB efficiency for SEC starters in 2025 Saturday Down South.
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