Newcastle hope to sign Aaron Ramsdale on loan from Arsenal after missing out on James Trafford. But they already have a good goalkeeper in Nick Pope, so what’s behind this move?
Eddie Howe’s praise of Nick Pope in February felt instructive. The England international goalkeeper had just returned from an injury lay-off and his manager was keen to highlight the significance of his comeback.
“For me, he’s one of the best shot-stoppers, if not the best shot-stopper in the Premier League. He is a big presence, obviously in size but also personality,” Howe told reporters. “He’s well liked within the squad, a very humble person and works extremely hard. He’s always had the ability, historically, to make big saves. We’re certainly going to need them in the coming weeks.”
Howe twice highlighted Pope’s shot-stopping abilities. Okay, he’s a goalkeeper and that’s a pretty important part of the job, so maybe it stands to reason.
But he referred to him as a “shot-stopper”, not a goalkeeper. A “shot-stopper”, as if when the full package is taken into consideration, he isn’t at the level of the Premier League’s very best.
Of course, the elephant in the room that Howe wasn’t addressing was Pope’s distribution, a source of frustration for plenty of Newcastle fans for a while now. Although he’s probably not as bad in that respect as some make him out to be, it is a weakness of his.
It’s been under the microscope even more this summer, too, as Newcastle have looked to bring in a new goalkeeper. Those they’ve targeted have provided a pretty clear indication of where they think gains can be made in that department, with James Trafford and Aaron Ramsdale generally well regarded for their abilities in possession.
Newcastle were gazumped in their efforts to bring in Trafford, who ended up going back to Manchester City. Ramsdale quickly emerged as the fall-back option, and he’s expected to join on loan from Arsenal.
So, how much more comfortable is Ramsdale with his feet than Pope? Or is this perceived weakness in the latter’s game just exaggerated?
Well, we have to acknowledge that some areas of goalkeeper distribution analysis can be minefields. There’s arguably even more room for nuance in the data than with outfield players because the difference in passing ranges can be more extreme.
Additionally, there aren’t many – if any – roles on the pitch that have their passing style dictated more by the coach’s philosophy or system than the goalkeeper. For instance, even if you were an outfielder in a direct team, the chances are you’d still generally play more short passes than long, but perhaps not if you’re between the posts.
Pope is actually quite a good example of that. During his final season at Burnley in 2021-22, the average length of his successful passes was 41.4 metres; the longest it’s been for him at Newcastle was 26.5m in 2022-23, which is a 46% decrease.
Since moving to St James’ Park, Pope hasn’t really had to become more accustomed to having the ball at his feet, but his passing habits have changed considerably.
In his last season at Burnley, he actually averaged more passes per 90 (25.8) than in any campaign at Newcastle. However, only 17.9% of those were passes that ended inside his own half; that went up to 50.9% during his maiden year on Tyneside, before reaching 67.9% in 2023-24 and 60.5% in 2024-25.
This is in keeping with Newcastle’s broader approach to passing seeing them become more deliberate, intricate even, during Howe’s time at the club, as the graphic below highlights.
While 2024-25 saw them deviate slightly, there’s an argument that wouldn’t have happened if Sven Botman hadn’t missed so much of the season through injury. And the fact that Newcastle have concentrated on acquiring a competent ball-playing goalkeeper supports the idea they want to keep trying to build from the back.
Now, Pope’s passing hasn’t been wholly counterintuitive in that respect. In each of his three seasons at Newcastle, he’s had a pass completion rate in his own half of at least 88.4%, which seems reasonable enough, if unspectacular. His average over those seasons (89.9%) is only marginally poorer than that of Ramsdale (90.5%).
But there’s only so much that such metrics can inform because the eye test tells us Pope doesn’t look especially comfortable playing out from the back, while Ramsdale does.
So, where’s the quantifiable proof?
A good place to start is looking at how accustomed they are to having the ball under pressure from an opponent. Pressing from the front is an important tactic for many teams, therefore goalkeepers are frequently harried when trying to pick out a pass. Being able to keep your cool in such situations and remain reliable in possession are good markers of a quality ball-playing goalkeeper.
In simple terms, Ramsdale is just far more used to these scenarios. Across the past four Premier League seasons, he’s played 582 passes while under pressure from an opponent within five metres; Pope has tallied 272, so less than half as many from more minutes (10,368 to 9,270) on the pitch.
Ramsdale has seen his per-90 average for this metric over a full campaign range between 4.0 (2022-23) and 7.2 (2024-25) over the past four seasons, whereas Pope’s has only gone as high as 3.0 (2024-25).
Ramsdale has found a teammate in 60% of those situations, compared to 49% for Pope.
So, not only is Ramsdale more familiar with being pressed by opposition forwards, he has a considerably better record of retaining possession as well.
It’s also worth considering what their passes actually do, too.
Here, we can look at line-breaking passes to get an idea of how each of them uses the ball when they have it.
A line-breaking pass (LBP) is a completed forward pass that slices through a line in the opposition’s setup; a line is made up of at least two players who cannot be more than 20 metres apart horizontally (across the pitch) and no more than 9m apart vertically.
Generally, a high number of LBPs suggests bravery and positive thinking while in possession, as they’d ordinarily be a riskier pass than one played horizontally or backwards to a nearby teammate in space. If you aren’t a confident passer, you’ll be less likely to attempt risky balls played between two opponents, especially if you play in goal, where errors are likelier to be costly.
LBPs don’t have to be along the ground, though, so technically speaking a long ball from the back can qualify as a line-breaking pass, which is obviously a relevant note for goalkeepers.
Nevertheless, when LBPs are analysed, there’s a gulf between Ramsdale and Pope.
In terms of top-line numbers, the difference is especially stark. Ramsdale recorded 209 LBPs in the Premier League last term, which was the third most of all goalkeepers; Pope managed just 59.
Ramsdale’s 209 equated to 17.2% of his overall pass total; no goalkeeper who played at least 650 minutes in the top flight last term saw a greater proportion of their passes break at least one defensive line in their opposition’s setup. Among that same group of goalkeepers, only Caoimhín Kelleher (7.1%) and another Newcastle keeper, Martin Dúbravka (5.7%), had a smaller share of their passes qualify as LBPs than Pope (7.5%).
Forty-seven of Ramsdale’s LBPs broke two lines in the opposition’s structure, or 22.5%, which is the second-greatest proportion among the same group of goalkeepers noted before. This reflects a high level of bravery in his use of the ball. Pope’s 8/59 equates to 13.6%.
One potential rebuttal here could be that perhaps Ramsdale has benefited from hopeful long passes qualifying as LBPs, and that is possible. Though he still recorded 160 LBPs that didn’t reach the final third, suggesting there was at least a degree of intent for most of them. And either way, an accurate pass is an accurate pass.
But none of this is to say teams should play out from the back. While it isn’t the case that all errors leading to opposition shots stem from playing out from the back, there does appear to be a correlation between such mistakes and shorter passing.
Jonathan Manuel / Data AnalystIt is a risky strategy, especially if you have players without the requisite composure or passing ability.
Pope made five errors that either led to an opposition shot or goal last term; two were feeble save attempts as the ball went in, while the other three were instances of him misplacing passes out from the back.
That said, just because a goalkeeper is comfortable in possession doesn’t mean they won’t make mistakes. Ramsdale also made three errors leading to opposition shots last season, and they were all inaccurate passes while trying to be incisive.
One caveat, of course, is that Ramsdale’s errors came from 1,420 touches of the ball, whereas Pope had 975. Obviously not all of them were touches of the ball with their feet, but it still gives you an idea of how much more often one was in possession compared to the other.
Either way, Ramsdale certainly isn’t flawless, and use of the ball is just one aspect of goalkeeping; they’ve also got to stop it going in their net. Most would probably consider Pope to be the better goalkeeper in that regard, and the data broadly backs that assertion up.
Looking at their save percentages across their respective Premier League careers, Pope is the clear winner.
He saved 70.2% of the shots on target he faced in 2019-20, which is the worst save percentage he’s recorded in the top flight. Compare that to Ramsdale, whose best save percentage in a Premier League season is only 69.9% during 2020-21.
We can also look at the value their saves provide with our expected goals on target (xGOT) model. xGOT measures the likelihood of an on-target shot being a goal, based on the combination of the chance quality (xG) and the end location of the shot within the goalmouth. So, a top-corner shot would get more kudos than one straight down the middle. While this can be used to assess finishing, it also allows us to credit goalkeepers for their ability to prevent goals by making improbable saves. And Pope has consistently enjoyed a better record in this metric than Ramsdale.
Across his Premier League career (221 games), Pope’s saves have prevented 16.8 goals according to the xGOT conceded model, whereas Ramsdale (183 games) has actually let in 5.0 goals more than the average goalkeeper would be expected to concede based on the quality of chances faced.
Pope is helped by the fact he’s faced more shots on target over his career, partly due to playing more top-flight games and partly down spending a few seasons at Burnley. But we can standardise these figures to level the playing field somewhat, using what we call ‘goals-prevented rate’ – essentially the number of goals they were expected to concede as a proportion of the number of goals they actually conceded.
Pope’s goals-prevented rate of 1.06 effectively means he was expected to concede 1.06 goals for every goal he actually conceded. Ramsdale’s goals-prevented rate of 0.98 means he was expected to concede 0.98 goals for every goal he did concede. Ergo, Pope’s saves have prevented more goals.
His best season in that regard was 2017-18, when – according to the xGOT conceded model – he prevented 10.3 goals. The best Ramsdale has done in a single campaign was 1.2 goals prevented in 2021-22.
Exactly what Ramsdale’s imminent signing means for Pope isn’t entirely clear. Howe’s intention could well be for his incumbent stopper to remain the main man and the new guy comes in just to offer competition.
But there’s an obvious stylistic difference between the two goalkeepers, just as there would have been between Pope and Trafford, and it’s unlikely Newcastle would have spent a considerable fee – as was seemingly their intention – on the latter if he was just going to be a back-up.
Ramsdale certainly isn’t the perfect goalkeeper by any stretch, but Newcastle have watched Pope fail to convince with the ball at his feet for a while now.
It may not be a changing of the guard per se, as Ramsdale’s loan might not be made permanent. However, his arrival could be a signal of the beginning of the end for Pope.
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