There it is. The first move of the Trade Deadline for the Chicago Cubs, and it’s picking up a starting pitcher, as long expected. But is it the pitcher people were expecting?
Probably not:
News: The Cubs have acquired pitcher Mike Soroka from the Nationals, sources tell ESPN. Soroka, 27, is 3-8 with a 4.87 ERA in 16 starts but the key with him is his expected stats are much better than his actual ones, starting with his xERA which is 3.32. Could be a pen arm too
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) July 31, 2025This is a rental acquisition, with Soroka making about $3 million more this year before hitting free agency again. No word yet on the trade cost, though I’ll update when it comes out. It’s going to be a meaningful prospect or two, I’d expect, given the cost of pitching at this deadline. I don’t hate adding Soroka as part of a comprehensive deadline strategy, but let’s see what the price is.
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UPDATE: The trade cost, per Jesse Rogers, is Triple-A outfielder Christian Franklin and rookie ball shortstop Ronny Cruz. Definitely falls into what I described as a meaningful cost.
Franklin, 25, has a 117 wRC+ at Iowa this year, and can play defense all over the outfield. It’s a fair question whether he’ll be able to translate enough pop to the big leagues to carve out a 4th outfielder role, but he can hit for a lot of power, and he takes his walks. He has become a lot more contact-oriented in recent years. He’s Rule 5 eligible and was going to be a big question mark as far as whether the Cubs would put him on the 40-man roster or not, so I’m not super surprised that they were willing to include him here.
I think the bigger cost is Cruz, who was the Cubs’ 3rd rounder last year. Still only 18, Cruz hit reasonably well in his pro debut this year in the ACL (.270/.314/.431/91 wRC+, improving as the year went on), and is developing physically. He’s an extreme risk type who is more likely not to make it than to make it, but the upside is substantial.
This is a trade cost the Cubs can absorb relatively easily, yes. But it’s a very healthy return for the Nationals on a rental trade with some questions. Original post resumes below.
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Soroka, 27, was a reclamation project for the White Sox last year, and wound up pitching so well in relief that the Nationals signed him to try starting again in 2025. The results have been mixed, at best. Soroka has a 4.87 ERA over 18 starts and 81.1 innings, which is about 18 worse than league average when accounting for ballpark (ERA-). His peripherals are much better, including a 4.11 FIP, though that’s just league average by FIP-.
Of course, his strikeout rate is outstanding (25.4%), his walk rate is great (7.0%), and his barrel rate is great (6.4%). He’s been crushed primarily by when the hits against him have taken place – just a whole lot of damage when runners get on base. His average, OBP, and slugging against all jump by huge margins with runners on base, which might be flukey and lead to more runs than you’d expect, or it’s also possible he’s just struggling out of the stretch for some reason.
One big concern? Michael Soroka’s fastball velocity has been WAY down his last three starts (like, a whopping 3 mph lower than before the last three starts). The Cubs must have confidence that there’s an explanation there that isn’t injury-related or fatigue-related. Absent that confidence, I’d be terrified to take on a guy with Soroka’s injury history who had just seen a massive midseason drop in his fastball velocity. At least he did get good results in those three outings (4 ER over 14.0 IP), even at the reduced velocity?
I remind myself that the goal at the deadline is not to pick up players who’ve been the best over the first four months of the season, but instead to pick up players who can be the best version of themselves for your team over the final two months. If the Cubs can help Soroka at the margins, there’s very clearly a good starting pitcher here. But can they do it? Can they help the results match the peripherals immediately? And can they fix the decline in fastball velocity if it’s mechanical and a concern?
There’s always a chance Soroka could wind up pitching out of the bullpen as he did so well with the White Sox last year (after struggling as a starter). Last season, Michael Soroka threw 36.0 of his innings as a reliever: 2.75 ERA, 39.0%(!) K, 13.0% BB, .189/.303/.291 opposing slash line. He dominated.
But I think for now we should be looking at him as one of possibly two starting pitcher acquisitions for the Cubs. Hoping, anyway. (Then, eventually, when Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad come back from injury, maybe you think about moving guys around and letting Soroka pitch in relief. It’s certainly a small bonus to know that he’s done it well before.)
Here’s what I wrote about him previously, and why he makes sense as a target in spite of his mediocre overall results this year (though note that this came before his drop in velo … ):
Soroka’s ERA is unsightly, but his high-level peripherals look really good. The groundball rate would be nice in front of this Cubs infield, and the spread between his strikeout and walk rates is actually top-20 in baseball. He’s giving up a lot of hard contact (average exit velo over 90 mph), but not a lot of the best contact (7.1% barrel rate is solid). There’s a lot to like under the hood.
Here’s how Michael Soroka looks at Statcast, and why it’s not hard to imagine him instantly getting better results in front of a better defense:
Something else notable: the models hate his four-seamer and changeup, and he’s gotten terrible results on them. By contrast, his sinker and curveball rate very well and the results are much better there. Might, following a trade, you be able to get buy-in to see him up the usage on those two pitches a little? (Currently, the sinker is at 9.6% and the curveball, which is new this year, is at 35.2%.)
It’s incredible to me that Michael Soroka is still only 27 years old. If you remember him, it’s probably from his time as a breakout youngster with the Braves back in 2019. He spent the next four years accumulating fewer than 50 big league innings thanks to multiple Achilles injuries and surgeries, before eventually finding himself with the White Sox in 2024, putting up some eye-popping numbers in relief. It was enough for the Nationals to take a chance on him as a starter heading into this season, arguably to set up precisely this moment: the opportunity to trade Soroka as a rental, so he gets to pitch for a contender and guarantee he could hit free agency unattached to draft pick compensation at age-28 after showing the world that he was back as a starting pitcher.
That is all to say, I’m sure Michael Soroka would love an opportunity to join an organization like the Cubs, where he’d be pitching in front of a great defense, in a pennant race, and with a pitching infrastructure that has had a whole lot of success with pitchers like him.
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