In 2025, we’ll see 5 first-year head coaches at power conference programs and a sixth take over on an interim basis. Though a relatively small crop of new coaches, there’s some real star power in the class, led by North Carolina head coach and Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick.
What should we expect from each? Let’s take a look.
North Carolina Tar Heels — Bill Belichick
Record last season: 6-7
If someone tells you they know what North Carolina will be in Year 1 under Bill Belichick, question everything. None of us have any idea what this team will be. On one hand, you have the greatest coach in the history of the NFL taking over a program that finds itself in a manageable league. On the other, Bill Belichick has never coached a down of college football and the difference between where he was and where he now finds himself is night and day. Much has been made about the talent (or perceived lack thereof) Belichick has to work with on the UNC roster, but even then, we don’t know what this group will look like because it hasn’t been together. Eight transfers were brought in along the offensive line. The quarterback is a transfer recruit. The defense returns only 3 of the 16 defenders who played at least 200 snaps last season.
We might see inverse Carolina in 2025, relative to what the Heels were under Mack Brown. Under the previous regime, Carolina was a good-to-great offense bogged down by a disaster of a defense. Belichick, known for his defensive wizardry, brought in his son, Steve, to run the Carolina defense after what was a pretty good season at Washington. In his lone season with UW, the younger Belichick helped the defense to a 37th-place finish in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. North Carolina, for reference, ranked 77th. Carolina has a middling schedule, which means 6 wins should be in play.
Only 3 ACC teams won 6 conference games last fall. Carolina only plays one of them. And 4 ACC teams lost 6 conference games last fall. Carolina plays 3 of them. ESPN’s FPI projects 6.7 wins for Belichick in Year 1. Bill Connelly’s SP+ model projects 6.6. Carolina’s activity in the transfer portal evoked memories of Deion Sanders’ first Colorado class, but there’s an important distinction that needs to be made between what Sanders did and what Belichick is attempting.
Sanders brought Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders with him to Boulder. Belichick might have a quarterback who is just as effective (if not more…) but there are no Hunter-level talents on this roster. And Colorado lost 8 of its last 9 in Sanders’ first season.
I like Gio Lopez, who threw for 2,559 yards and 18 touchdowns while rushing for 463 yards and 7 scores as a redshirt freshman last season at South Alabama. According to Game on Paper, Lopez averaged a higher EPA per dropback than Sanders last fall.
The expectation in Chapel Hill should be that Carolina is competitive and more buttoned up under Belichick. The Tar Heels were 118th in penalties per game last season, gave up 70 points in a game, and mustered only 14 points in a bowl loss to UConn. They were all over the map.
They might not be good, but they need to be cleaner.
Realistic expectation: 5 to 7 wins
RELATED: At BetMGM, the Carolina win total is set at 7.5 with -165 odds on the under.
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