The USDCAD moved higher (weaker CAD) following President Trump’s comments that some trade actions "could just be a tariff" rather than a negotiation, and that certain deals may be handled “by letter.”
Technically, the pair had already been trending higher since bottoming on Wednesday. In today’s session, price action broke above the 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.36388) and sustained momentum initially drove it to the 200-hour moving average at 1.36801. Sellers leaned into that level on the first test, leading to a dip back toward the midpoint of July’s trading range at 1.36645.
Support held at that midpoint, and the pair rebounded sharply—boosted further by the tariff-related headlines. The rally extended into a swing area between 1.3707 and 1.37112, where sellers once again emerged, capping the upside and defining short-term risk.
The pair has since rotated back down toward the 200-hour moving average. The key question now is whether that level can hold as support and help reestablish the upside momentum seen earlier in the day.
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