England vs Spain Prediction: Women’s Euro 2025 Final Preview ...Middle East

It’s the European champions against the world champions. Will England retain their crown, or is it finally Spain’s turn to lift the trophy? We preview the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 final with our England vs Spain prediction. 

England vs Spain Stats: The Key Insights

Sunday’s Women’s Euro 2025 final sees England and Spain battle once again, in a repeat of the 2023 FIFA World Cup final.

This is just the second time there’s been the same fixture in back-to-back Women’s World Cup/Euros finals, along with Germany versus Sweden (2001 Euros, 2003 World Cup), won both times by the Germans.

Can England make history by becoming just the second nation to defend their European Championship crown, along with Germany (1989 and 1991, then 1995 through 2013)? Let’s dive into where this game could be won and lost.

Super Subs Rescue England Again

Another match, another dramatic comeback. England really know how to keep a nation’s heart racing. 

Much like the clash with Sweden, it was the substitutes who embodied England’s relentless spirit against Italy, giving us a powerful reminder that the Lionesses are never quite done. 

England are the first team to progress from both the quarter-final and semi-final in a single edition of the UEFA Women’s Euros having conceded the first goal in both matches. 

Sarina Wiegman’s substitute decisions never seem to falter, though, and she is now the first-ever men’s or women’s manager to reach five international tournament finals in a row.

During England’s comeback-win over Italy, substitutes Beth Mead, Chloe Kelly, and Michelle Agyemang each contributed to four sequences in open play which led to a shot, underscoring their roles in England’s attack off the bench and demonstrating the different weapons Wiegman is able to call upon.  

Indeed, it was two substitutes who came to England’s rescue in the nick of time. Agyemang’s equaliser at 95:01 was the Lionessess’ latest goal on record (since 2013) in a match at the UEFA Women’s Euro’s (excluding extra-time), while Kelly’s winning strike in the 119th minute was the latest goal ever scored in the tournament’s history. 

England have relied on their teenage saviour Agyemang to send both of their knockout games to extra-time. The Arsenal forward is the first teenager to net twice at a single edition of the competition since Cecilie Pedersen for Norway in 2009. 

At Euro 2025, Agyemang has been a standout attacking force from the bench, averaging  a staggering 6.1 shots per 90 minutes of action, more than double that of Alessia Russo (2.9). Agyemang’s also proving more accurate, landing 2.0 shots on target per 90 compared to Russo’s 0.6.

It is worth clarifying that Agyemang has only played 89 minutes of action in total, but this sharpness in front of goal highlights the youngster’s growing importance in England’s forward line. 

She displays an uncanny ability to get into dangerous areas, recording 15.2 touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes at the tournament so far – that’s more than any other player in the competition and almost double Russo’s 7.6. Agyemang’s clinical presence whether from the bench or from the off could be the key difference in a tight clash with Spain.  

She has now scored in three of her four international appearances, averaging a goal every 33 minutes, the best across all England players since her debut in April 2025.  

Chloe Kelly is another player who’s had a huge impact off the bench.

She’s created 4.3 chances per 90 at Euro 2025 so far. Not only is that more than both England’s wide starters Lauren Hemp (2.4) and Lauren James (1.8), but also ranks second across all players at Euro 2025 to have played over 150+ minutes, behind Vicky López of Spain.

Since Opta has analysed major women’s tournaments (2011), Kelly has the joint most chances created (8) and most successful crosses (10) of any substitute in a single tournament. 

The Arsenal forward has been a real threat from out wide, showing a desire to create constant chaos in the opponent’s penalty area by getting the ball into the box. As well as her frequent crosses, she’s averaged 14.9 passes played into the opposition area per 90 – the most of any player in the tournament.  

There’s also a lot to be said about her mentality. When the pressure’s on, Kelly delivers. Time and time again, she’s been England’s go-to player in the biggest moments, and once again, she rose to the occasion against Italy.

From her extra-time winner in the Euro 2022 final to calmly slotting the decisive penalty in the 2023 Finalissima, Kelly has built a reputation as England’s ultimate clutch player.

So, when the penalty fell to her in the 119th minute against Les Azzurre, it felt almost inevitable. She was always going to be the one to pounce on the rebound, firing England into their third straight major tournament final.

With Lauren James forced off at half-time against Italy due to an ankle injury, maybe Wiegman could look to Kelly to make an impact from the outset of this final. 

Defensive Durability

While centre-back pair Leah Williamson and Esme Morgan had only started three games together prior to Tuesday’s game, last doing so in May 2025 during the Lionesses’ 6-0 battering of Portugal, England certainly looked more assured at the back.

Italy had their moments, but England limited their opponents to five shots on target; only against Spain (2) have Italy had fewer at the tournament.

On her ninth ever start for the Lionesses, and first at a major tournament (Euros/World Cup), Morgan won all three of her tackles and cleared the ball 10 times against Italy, the most for an England player across a game at Euro 2025, while also maintaining a 100% passing accuracy into the final third.  

Finally, Hannah Hampton continues to deliver when it matters most. Her crucial double save in the 87th minute felt like the game’s turning point; marking the moment England were not done and destined to reach the final. She has shown exactly why she is Chelsea’s number one.

For Spain, Wednesday’s semi-final clash showed exactly why Aitiana Bonmatí is the current Ballon d’or holder, with the playmaker helping her nation eliminate Germany. It was the first time Germany had got this far in a Euros tournament and not progressed to the final since the 1993 edition, ending their run of seven consecutive progressions from semi-final to final. 

In fact, Spain’s semi-final win marked their first ever victory over Germany on what was their ninth attempt (D3 L5). Indeed prior to the game, La Roja had lost each of their previous four competitive games against them without scoring a goal.

Furthermore, this was the first time Germany failed to record a shot on target in the first half of a major tournament match (Euros/World Cup) since the 2015 FIFA World Cup semi-final vs USA. Two of their three attempts on target during normal time came in the 94th minute.

It’s fair to say the Spanish were made to work hard for that opener, but victory means they have now won six consecutive knockout stage matches at major tournaments (Euros & World Cup); only one European nation has ever had a longer such streak across the two competitions, with Germany winning 13 in a row between 2001 and 2009.

Ballon d’or Brilliance

Bonmatí’s strike in the 113th-minute was the first goal Spain had scored against Germany since November 2011 (2-2 draw in a UEFA Women’s Euros qualifier), and it was also her country’s latest goal at a major tournament (Euros/World Cup).

This tournament has become a showcase of last-minute heroics. There have been 11 goals scored at UEFA Women’s Euros 2025 in the 90th minute or later during normal time (9) and extra-time (2), the most such goals in a single edition of the tournament. 

Able to find that moment of magic in the tightest of moments, catching out the outstanding Ann-Katrin Berger at her near post, Bonmatí has shown just the generational talent she is. Berger had saved each of her last 15 shots on target in the tournament up until Bonmatí’s winning goal but was caught out by the Spaniard’s impudent finish.

Although this was her first goal of Euro 2025, Bonmatí is now level with Jenni Hermoso for most the goals scored in knockout-stage games for Spain across major tournaments (3 each). 

The Barcelona midfielder also ranked top versus Germany alongside Patri for passes played in the final third (34), while her six touches in the German penalty area were topped only by Germany’s Klara Bühl and teammate Esther Gonzalez with seven.

It’s no surprise that across Europe’s top five leagues during the 2024-25 season, Bonmatí ranked third for chances created (69), and first in the Spanish Primera División Femenina.

Athenea del Castillo assist for Bonmatí’s winner against Germany means she’s been involved in six goals in her last seven appearances in all competitions (5 goals, 1 assist), scoring or assisting every 40 minutes across those matches.

Her midfield companion Patri Guijarro led all players for chances created from open play against Germany (4). Indeed, the only player on record (since 2013) to create more in a UEFA Women’s Euros match against Germany was also Patri (five in a group stage match in 2022).

She completed 109 passes in the semi-final against Germany, the most by a midfielder in a game at this year’s tournament. Overall, she’s completed 401 passes at the 2025 UEFA Women’s Euros, with only two players completing more on record since 2013 – England’s Leah Williamson in 2022 (461) and Denmark’s Katrine Pedersen (403).

Meanwhile, Spain’s Alèxia Putellas has been involved in the most goals (3 goals, 4 assists) and created the most chances (18) of any player at the UEFA Women’s Euros 2025 but is still searching for her first goal or assist in any of her nine international knockout appearances.

One of Putellas’ major assets in her press resistance. She has received the most high pressures from opponents (307) and has the best pass accuracy under high pressure (86.6%) of any player to attempt 100+ passes while under high pressure. She’s also created the most chances under high pressure (13) of any player. 

Spain’s midfield will undoubtedly be a cause for a concern for England; both Patri and Putellas lead the tournament for shot-ending sequence involvements with 49, showing just how involved they are in driving Spain forward. How will Wiegman’s side be able to stop the trio of Bonmatí, Putellas and Patri from causing chaos?

Overall, Spain have been phenomenal going forwards. They’ve averaged 24 shots per game at the 2025 Women’s Euros (120 in 5 games), the best by a nation at a major tournament since Germany at the 2015 Women’s World Cup (26 per game), while their average of 621 completed passes per game is the most by a nation at a tournament on record since 2011.  

England and Spain have faced each other three times previously at the UEFA Women’s Euros, with those games coming in the three previous tournaments before 2025. Spain won 3-2 in the group stage in 2013, while the Lionesses were victorious 2-0 in 2017 in the group stage and won 2-1 in the 2022 quarter-final.

Winning each of their last 10 matches in all competitions and scoring 38 goals, Spain last enjoyed a longer winning run between March 2020 and November 2021, when they won 16 games consecutively and they will look to extend that streak against the Lionesses and claim European glory.  

England vs Spain Prediction

The supercomputer is leaning slightly in Spain’s favour, predicting them to be crowned European champions in 51.5% of simulations. Holders England are victorious in 48.5%.

Spain secure victory within 90 minutes in 37.8% of scenarios, while England do so in 35.3%. Extra time needed in 26.9% of cases.

Will England avenge their World Cup final defeat, or can Spain complete their trophy cabinet set, becoming the first European nation to lift the World Cup and Euros at consecutive tournaments since Germany between 2001 and 2009 (five in a row).

The showpiece of the year is here, a repeat of the famous 2023 FIFA World Cup final, who do you have your bets on?

England vs Spain Squads

England

Hannah Hampton, Lucy Bronze, Niamh Charles, Keira Walsh, Alex Greenwood, Leah Williamson, Lauren James, Georgia Stanway, Beth Mead, Ella Toone, Lauren Hemp, Maya Le Tissier, Anna Moorhouse, Grace Clinton, Esme Morgan, Jess Carter, Michelle Agyemang, Chloe Kelly, Aggie Beever-Jones, Jess Park, Khiara Keating, Lotte Wubben-Moy, Alessia Russo.

Head Coach: Sarina Wiegman

Spain

Esther Sullastres, Cata Coll, Adriana Nanclares, Laia Aleixandri, Ona Batlle, Olga Carmona, Jana Fernandez, Maria Mendez, Leila Ouahabi, Irene Paredes, Aitana Bonmati, Patricia Guijarro, Vicky Lopez, Alexia Putellas, Maite Zubieta, Mariona Caldentey, Athenea del Castillo, Lucia Garcia, Esther Gonzalez, Cristina Martin-Prieto, Salma Paralluelo, Claudia Pina, Alba Redondo.

Head Coach: Montse Tomé

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England vs Spain Prediction: Women’s Euro 2025 Final Preview Opta Analyst.

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