With the three promoted clubs going straight back down in successive Premier League seasons for the first time, we look at what it will take for Leeds United, Burnley and Sunderland to buck the trend.
For some, it has gone from a statistical quirk to a real concern.
The 2023-24 Premier League season saw Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United all relegated just a season after promotion from the Championship. It was only the second time in the history of the competition that all three promoted clubs had gone straight back down, and the first time it had happened since 1997-98, 26 years earlier.
However, in 2024-25, it happened again. Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton dropped straight back into the second tier after just one season in the big time.
Does it point to a wider issue in English football? Has the gap between the Premier League and the Championship become too wide?
What was particularly concerning last season was how emphatic the relegation of all three clubs was. Southampton only just avoided recording the lowest-ever points total in Premier League history, accumulating just one more than Derby County’s record low of 11 in 2007-08. Saints set a new record for earliest relegation in terms of matches remaining, as their return to the Championship was confirmed with seven games of the season left.
Leicester won only 25 points, the fewest by a team that finished 18th in a 38-game Premier League season, and a whopping 13 behind Tottenham Hotspur in 17th. Points-wise, Spurs were closer to 13th than they were to the Foxes in the end.
Before we get too carried away, it should be remembered that three seasons ago in 2022-23, all three promoted clubs survived. In fact, Fulham secured a top-half finish (10th), while the season before that, Brentford also stayed up comfortably, finishing 13th in their first ever Premier League campaign. Also, all four promoted teams who survived in 2021-22 and 2022-23 are still in the top flight, showing that managing to stay up for just that first season can set an excellent foundation.
Unless the gap between the first and second tier in England widened very suddenly in the summer of 2023, it is probably likely to be more of a statistical anomaly, although that’s not to say it doesn’t point to the gap growing.
In the 30 Premier League seasons that have had 20 competing teams, 47.2% of promoted clubs have gone straight back down after one campaign (42 of 89), which obviously means more than half have survived.
In 2025-26, it will be Burnley, Leeds United and Sunderland looking to stay up after promotion. The Clarets failed to do so two seasons ago, but Leeds have relatively recent experience of staying up impressively, finishing ninth in 2020-21 after promotion back to the Premier League for the first time since 2003. They were the sole survivors of the promoted clubs that season, but after two years back they were relegated in 2022-23. Sunderland are back in the top flight for the first time since 2016-17, having spent four seasons in League One since then, much to the glee of documentary fans.
So, what will Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland need to do to buck the recent trend? We looked at the data to see what it takes to avoid the dreaded drop from the top flight.
This is the Premier League survival guide.
Make a Good Start
In 33 Premier League seasons, none of the 15 promoted teams to collect eight or more points from their opening five games have gone straight back down.
In the last three seasons, only Fulham in 2022-23 have reached at least eight points from their first five games (10) of the promoted teams, and the Cottagers went on to finish 10th.
Across the last two seasons, none of the promoted teams have won more than three points from their first five games, and of course, all six were relegated.
In Premier League history, only one promoted team has stayed up despite not winning a single point from their first four games: Southampton in 2012-13.
Although not a promoted team at the time, should anyone suffer a truly awful start, they can perhaps take solace from the performance of Crystal Palace in 2017-18, who recorded seven straight defeats without scoring a single goal to start the season. Four losses came under Frank de Boer before another three under Roy Hodgson, who ultimately guided the Eagles to 11th.
Looking at the first five games for next season’s promoted teams, Burnley face Sunderland in their second game at Turf Moor, which is a chance for one of them to get an early three points on the board. The Clarets start at Tottenham, then after hosting Sunderland, it’s a tricky trio of Manchester United (A), Liverpool (H) and Nottingham Forest (H). According to the Opta supercomputer, though, it is the fourth-easiest start to the season of all Premier League teams.
Sunderland host West Ham before heading to Burnley, then it’s Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A) and Aston Villa (H), supposedly the seventh-easiest start.
Leeds have things a little tougher on paper, hosting Everton before heading to Arsenal. They then face Newcastle United (H), Fulham (A) and Wolves (A), the eighth toughest.
It’s not an absolute necessity, but getting points on the board early can really come in handy, not just for the obvious reasons but also in giving a promoted team the belief they can compete at the level required.
The Magic ‘40 Points’ Mark?
We’re all aware of the cliché that a minimum of 40 points means you stay in the Premier League. But is that number accurate?
Pretty much. Just looking at the Premier League since it went down to 20 teams (since the start of the 1995-96 season), the average points total of the teams who finished 17th is 37.9. In fact, Spurs finished 17th on 38 points last season.
That said, the team finishing 18th has averaged 34.5 points, so 35 should be enough in theory.
The promoted teams have unfortunately not got anywhere close to that in the last two seasons, with Luton amassing 26 points in 2023-24 and Leicester only managing 25 last season, the two lowest totals for teams who finished 18th in the 38-game era. Only once prior to that over the same period had a team finished 18th with fewer than 30 points: Fulham in 2020-21 (28 points).
It is also interesting to see how the bar for finishing 17th lowered after the early years of the Premier League. In six of the first eight seasons after the competition reduced to 20 teams, the team who finished 17th won at least 40 points. Since then, it has only occurred twice in 22 seasons. The last team to reach the magic 40 mark and finish 17th were Watford in 2016-17.
In 2023-24, Nottingham Forest finished on 32 points, the fewest ever amassed by the team who finished 17th in the Premier League. That had the caveat of them being deducted four points for breaching profit and sustainability rules (PSR), however.
The only time a team have been relegated with more than 40 points was West Ham in 2002-03 (42). Middlesbrough did win 42 points in 1996-97 but were deducted three by the Premier League for not fulfilling a fixture with Blackburn. That ultimately sent them down as 42 points would have been enough to stay up.
There have been two occurrences of a team winning exactly 40 points but still going down in a 38-game Premier League campaign: Sunderland in 1996-97 and Bolton in 1997-98. It therefore hasn’t happened in 27 years, so yes, 40 points will almost certainly see you safe.
The best way to get there? Win games (keep reading for more expert insight like that). Eleven victories and survival should be guaranteed. The most games won by a team who were relegated from the Premier League in a 38-game season is 10 (nine teams).
Try not to lose too often, as well (seriously, how do we come up with this stuff?). That said, Tottenham lost 22 games last season, the most ever suffered in a 38-game Premier League season by a team who weren’t relegated. Despite that, they were 13 points clear of relegation, only drawing five times (W11), so draws are arguably as much of a killer as losses.
That is partly proven by the team who suffered the fewest losses en route to relegation: Birmingham City. They only lost 15 times in 2010-11 but also drew 15 games, winning just eight as they slipped back into the Championship.
Solid Home Form… Or Away Form
No team has ever been relegated from the Premier League in a 38-game season having won at least 30 points at home. The most home points won by a relegated team is 29, achieved by both Middlesbrough in 1996-97 (though as mentioned, they had a three-point deduction) and Bolton Wanderers in 1997-98.
It is not a prerequisite, though. Hull City stayed up in 2008-09 despite winning just 14 points on home soil; their 21 points in away games helped the Tigers survive that year. That was quite an outlier, though. Apart from Hull, no team has ever stayed up having won fewer than 18 points from their 19 home games.
Unsurprisingly, Leeds and Burnley – who both won 100 points in the Championship last season – had impressive home records during their promotion campaigns. Leeds won 58 points from 23 home games, losing just once (W18 D4), while Burnley went undefeated at Turf Moor, though did draw nine times (W14).
Sunderland only had the sixth-best home record in the division, winning 43 points at the Stadium of Light (W12 D7 L4).
Alternatively, you could be strong away from home, and winning at least 23 points on the road should do it. The most away points won by a team relegated from the Premier League in a 38-game season is 22 (Crystal Palace in 1997-98).
Three sides have stayed up despite winning as few as seven points in their away games: Coventry City in 1999-2000, Fulham in 2005-06 and Burnley in 2016-17, though all three did win at least 33 points at home.
None of the six relegated teams over the last two seasons were able to earn more than 16 points either home or away, and none were able to win more than 10 both home and away. By stark contrast, in both seasons the two teams who finished directly above them won a minimum of 16 points both home and away.
Burnley had the best away record in the Championship last season, winning 49 points (W14 D7 L2) and, remarkably, conceding just eight times in their 23 away games. Leeds had the third-best away record with 42 points and only lost three games on the road (W11 D9), while Sunderland had the next best with 33 points (W9 D6 L8).
Find a Goalscorer
In theory, if you can find yourself a consistent goalscorer, you have a great chance of survival. Only six teams have been relegated from the Premier League despite having a player score more than 14 goals in that season.
In 2023-24, nobody scored more than six goals for either Sheffield United (Ben Brereton and Ollie McBurnie, 6 each) or Burnley (Jacob Bruun Larsen, 6). Luton’s Carlton Morris scored 11 and Elijah Adebayo hit 10. However, conceding 85 goals, at least 11 more than anyone who finished above them, didn’t help the Hatters.
In 2024-25, no Leicester player reached double figures; Jamie Vardy top-scored with nine, but that was still significantly better than Southampton, whose top scorer was Paul Onuachu with just four goals.
Liam Delap netted 12 times for Ipswich but didn’t get much help. No other Tractor Boy managed more than four.
As things stand, the promoted clubs don’t have many obvious candidates to reach the 15-goal mark. The only player who scored that many for Burnley in the Championship last season was Josh Brownhill (18), who may not be at Turf Moor next season after his contract expired last month.
Joël Piroe scored 19 for Leeds, so if he can adapt to the Premier League quickly you never know, though the Dutchman has never played in England’s top flight before. They have also signed striker Lukas Nmecha from Wolfsburg, though he only managed three goals in 19 Bundesliga games last season.
Sunderland have made some interesting moves in the transfer market this summer but are yet to add a striker. Their top scorer in the league last season (excluding play-offs) was Wilson Isidor with 12.
As a team, scoring over 50 goals should see you safe. Only four teams in the last 30 seasons have ever scored more than half a century and still gone down, with Blackpool recording the most. Their 55 goals scored in 2010-11 somehow wasn’t enough to survive.
Keep it Tight
A solid defence is undoubtedly helpful, which is likely what Burnley will be hoping for, having conceded just 16 goals in the Championship last season. Leeds had the next best record with 30 conceded, while Sunderland were fourth with 44 against.
That said, the 2021-22 season saw Leeds concede 79 goals and stay up, the joint most in the 20-team Premier League era for a side who didn’t get relegated.
It seems more important to just ensure your goal difference doesn’t get too out of control. The average goal difference of relegated teams in the 38-game era is -25.4.
The worst goal difference a team have had while staying up is Wigan Athletic’s -42 in the 2009-10 season, at least five worse than any other such team.
Middlesbrough’s -9 in 1996-97 is the best for a team who did go down. Though, if we only consider teams who didn’t suffer a points deduction, it was Blackburn Rovers’ -14 in 1998-99.
There is plenty to do to stay in the Premier League these days, with the top 17 in England’s top flight arguably stronger than ever before.
Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland will give it a good go, though, we’re sure, and after all this research we’ve figured out that all they have to do is score plenty of goals, keep it tight at the back and win a lot of points. You’re welcome.
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Premier League Survival Guide: How Can the Promoted Teams Stay Up? Opta Analyst.
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