Franklin has fallen below expectations in this area — but I’d argue he’s not as far away as people who tout that 1-15 record tend to believe. If he had met Vegas expectations and gone 4-12 against top-5 teams, would people view Franklin any differently as a coach? Not meaningfully so, I’d argue.
It’s worth noting Franklin has over-performed Vegas expectations as a favorite. BetIQ has money lines listed for 105 games where Franklin’s team was the favorite since 2014. Per implied probabilities from those individual money lines, Franklin was expected to win about 83 games. In reality, he’s won 88 of those games — plus 3 more where money lines were not recorded.
I’m not here to argue that 1-15 against top-5 teams is somehow acceptable. Franklin has underperformed in big games, point blank. But such is life at Penn State when you face the behemoths that are Ohio State and Michigan every year. Penn State was an underdog in 15 of those 16 games vs. top-5 opponents. The only exception was the semifinal vs. Notre Dame when Penn State was favored by a whopping 1-point margin.
What happens if Penn State finally has the requisite roster talent to be a favorite in colossal matchups? I think we’ll find out this fall, one way or the other.
Penn State football predictions
From the outside looking in, Penn State has a golden opportunity. The stars have seemingly aligned for the Nittany Lions to make a serious run at claiming their first national championship since 1986. But in order for that to happen, figures like Franklin and Allar will have to rise to levels they never have before. Knowles must make the necessary adjustments to get the most out of Penn State’s defensive personnel in Year 1.
I’m not a buyer in Penn State’s national championship upside. Compared to general consensus, I think I’m higher on Franklin and maybe a touch lower on Allar due to his poor track record vs. great defenses. With that being said, I do like Penn State at -250 to make the Playoff (via BetMGM) and over 10.5 wins (+135 on DraftKings).
The schedule is extremely manageable with the only obvious stumbling blocks being Oregon (at home) and Ohio State (in Columbus). I think Penn State will get a split of those games and then take care of business, as Franklin almost always does, against the minnows of the Big Ten.
Predicting Penn State: Can James Franklin, Drew Allar break through? Saturday Down South.
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