There is always a slightly melancholy air to a shadow cabinet reshuffle. By definition, the power in the hands of each individual is very small, and that is more true than ever for the Conservative Party now, still shattered by its worst election defeat ever and making little if any headway in the opinion polls.
Kemi Badenoch said in January that she would not change her top team before the general election, but that always seemed like an untenable pledge. Labour is trying to make capital out of this apparent change of mind – which requires ministers to have considerable chutzpah, bearing in mind, for example, the recent retreat on welfare reform – but she has cover in the person of Edward Argar, who is standing down as shadow health and social care secretary because of his health.
Argar made little impact, but his departure has allowed Badenoch to reconstruct her front bench with a greater degree of latitude. Perhaps the most significant change is the return of former foreign and home secretary and erstwhile leadership contender Sir James Cleverly. As a rare senior politician who can “speak human”, he could not be allowed to remain in backbench obscurity, and has been appointed shadow housing, communities and local government secretary to take on deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.
She is one of the cabinet’s better communicators, though it is hardly a strong field, and the two will scrap over some critical policy areas: house-building, infrastructure and planning, regional and local economic growth and the broad issue of “communities”, encompassing identity, integration, the democratic process and faith groups.
Kevin Hollinrake moves from the housing brief to become party chairman. At 61, he is one of the oldest members of the shadow cabinet, a bluff, no-nonsense Yorkshireman who has occasionally shown the teeth needed in opposition; he may be a useful all-purpose face of the Conservative Party in the mold of Nadhim Zahawi, Eric Pickles or Brian Mawhinney.
Neil O’Brien joins the shadow cabinet as “shadow minister for policy renewal and development”. He has clearly been chosen as Badenoch’s wonk-in-chief, following a path trodden by Oliver Letwin, David Willetts, Andrew Lansley, Peter Lilley and Sir Keith Joseph, and in some ways his role is the most important of all.
A former George Osborne and Theresa May special adviser who was director of Policy Exchange and co-founded the think tank Onward, he is clever, meticulous and well-connected with the obligatory Substack; but having advised May on industrial strategy and Boris Johnson on levelling up does not point to shining and tangible successes. There is a mountain to climb to give the Tories a clear, distinct policy platform for the next election; does O’Brien have the necessary head for heights?
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Some of the moves may have less impact. With Argar standing down, Stuart Andrew becomes shadow health secretary, an amiable but relatively anonymous man who cycled through eight jobs in the last six years of the previous government. He would have to show previously unsuspected star quality to make much impact against Wes Streeting.
Outgoing party co-chairman Nigel Huddleston takes the culture, media and sport brief (the Prime Minister having scotched rumours of the department’s abolition). A smooth but curiously bland MBA-qualified management consultant, he was a junior minister at DCMS but he will hardly be in the press of battle.
Alan Mak, leaves the shadow cabinet; Julia Lopez takes his place as shadow science, innovation and technology secretary; Richard Holden, still recovering from a bruising stint as party chairman, is shadow transport secretary; John Glen becomes Badenoch’s parliamentary private secretary. Few outside Westminster will notice.
Some will be disappointed by the stasis in the most senior roles: Sir Mel Stride remains shadow chancellor, Dame Priti Patel shadow foreign secretary and Chris Philip shadow home secretary. Stride can be reassuring but none has set Westminster ablaze. Meanwhile the definitely-not-on-manoeuvres Robert Jenrick retains the justice portfolio despite his supporters urging his promotion, but he can continue his campaign against the ECHR, Tube fare-dodgers and other targets of his ire.
On its own, this reshuffle will not dramatically affect the Conservative Party’s fortunes. Few votes will be swung by Huddleston rather than Andrew overseeing policy on culture and the media, for example. Make no mistake: Badenoch knows this perfectly well. If there is a path to recovery, it is long, slow and arduous.
Most of today’s moves are to ensure that there is someone at every post, and little more. A shadow cabinet reshuffle a year into a parliament after a catastrophic defeat can never be a universal remedy. Cleverly, Hollinrake and O’Brien have substantial work to do, but for the rest, it is most immediately a matter of hanging on and trying to survive.
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