There are a couple of to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold.
It's never a dull day with Trump in charge but if you missed the headlines, you'd be thinking major currencies didn't do all too much in the past day. After all the drama about maybe firing Fed chair Powell, we're back to square one again in terms of markets moves relative to a day ago. However, make no mistake that the dollar and broader markets were sent for a ride on the headlines yesterday:
So, did all the drama sway the odds of a July rate cut? Not at all. Fed funds futures are still pointing to ~98% odds of rates being kept unchanged at the end of the month.
Anyway, back to the expiries. After going through that dramatic sequence, the dollar is back to more or less where it was yesterday. And so, that means not doing all too much after the gains in the previous weeks. EUR/USD will see large expiries at 1.1600 and 1.1650, likely to keep price action in a bind before rolling off. That especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.1655 also helping to cap any upside. As such, the path of least resistance is still lower for now.
Then, there is one for USD/JPY at the 149.00 mark. It's not one that ties to any technical significance but could help to keep a lid on things in European trading at least before we get to the US retail sales data later. As things stand, the pair remains very much underpinned with yen holding weaker as Trump's tariffs threaten to derail the BOJ's rate hike plans.
For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.
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