Deutsche Bank is sounding the alarm on a potentially volatile start to August, warning that a confluence of risks could reignite recession fears and trigger sharp market moves — much like the turmoil seen during the same period last year.
In a note to clients, the bank pointed to three key flashpoints converging around August 1:
Each, Deutsche says, could individually rattle markets — but together, they pose a “seriously problematic” setup for risk assets.
Last year, the late-July/early-August period set the stage for the worst market turmoil of 2024This year, that week looks seriously problematic again from a market perspectiveTariff Deadline Looms
The first risk is the pending August 1 deadline for a new round of U.S. tariffs. Deutsche Bank notes that markets appear complacent, with little priced in for the possibility of higher tariffs. If a sharp policy shift materialises at the eleventh hour, it could catch investors off guard and spark a surge in volatility.Jobs Report Adds to Jitters
Compounding the risk is the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, also due on August 1. Deutsche cautions that even a modest downside surprise — especially against a backdrop of nervous sentiment — could trigger outsized market reactions. Last year demonstrated that even a small miss can cause a big selloff if investors are already jittery, the note said.Yields in a Vulnerable Spot
Adding to the tension is the fact that long-term Treasury yields are already at elevated levels. This leaves little room for a further rise before concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability begin to resurface. It would take less of a jump before we move into problematic territory that re-ignites fears around fiscal policy Deutsche wrote.Recession Fears Could Resurface
Deutsche warns that if tariffs do rise and the jobs report disappoints, the market narrative could suddenly shift in a more negative direction, potentially reviving fears of a U.S. recession. With investor sentiment already fragile, the combination of policy uncertainty and soft economic data could serve as a potent catalyst for renewed market stress. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.Hence then, the article about deutsche bank warns of potential market turbulence around august 1 3 key flashpoints was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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