How Scandinavia Became the Centre-Forward Capital of Men’s Football ...Middle East

There’s a school of thought that the number nine is “dying out”, but Norway, Sweden and Denmark are doing their best as conservationists.

In 2025-26, three of the Premier League’s best five teams (based on final placement in 2024-25) will be fronted by a Scandinavian centre-forward.

Manchester City have enjoyed three seasons of Erling Haaland’s almost robotic efficiency in the penalty area, Alexander Isak has emerged as one of Europe’s very best at Newcastle United, and they are set to be joined by the latter’s Sweden teammate, Viktor Gyökeres, when he links up with Arsenal.

He will cost the Gunners up to £65 million, but beyond that deal being significant for Arsenal, it shines additional light on Scandinavia’s rather impressive track record of producing high-quality centre-forwards in the men’s game, with Gyökeres another set to be plying his trade near the top of Europe’s best league.

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Many of these strikers fit fairly close to the mould of the number nine. Sure, each one has their own strengths, weaknesses and idiosyncrasies, but there’s something a bit more ‘traditional’ about them in their physical makeup and style of play; they mostly operate centrally, they’re big – and often powerful – and goals are their focus

Of the attackers who have defined most of the past 10-15 years or so, many have been wide forwards, so much so that you don’t need to look hard to find examples of prominent people in football – including England legend Alan Shearer – who believe the number nine is “dying out”. But not in Scandinavia.

Holding the Fort

While there is some ambiguity as to which territories “Scandinavia” refers to, here we are going with the most common interpretation, meaning Norway, Sweden and Denmark.

Similarly, none of this is to say these countries haven’t developed good centre-forwards before. But in a era where wide forwards are all the rage, there’s a perception Scandinavia is producing high-quality number nines at a rate that’s out of sync with the rest of men’s football, especially considering their modest combined population of 22.1 million people. For context, that would put them between Mali (22.4m) and Sri Lanka (21.7m) on a global scale if they were a single country.

Of course, there’s no truly definitive way of proving Scandinavia is producing this type of player at a rate that’s different to any other era, but the amount of goals being scored collectively by players from Norway, Sweden and Denmark is instructive to a degree.

Going back as far as Opta have full goals data across each of the top five European leagues (1998-99), goals scored by Scandinavian players steadily declined after the turn of the century and eventually reached its lowest point in 2012-13, when there were just 77 goals scored by players from Norway, Sweden and Denmark.

But looking specifically at the past five seasons, there’s been a considerable uptick.

There are a couple of things we must acknowledge, though. Firstly, these are goals scored by all players, not just centre-forwards; secondly, these aren’t huge figures and so the outlook can change quite notably if just one player has a freak season; and thirdly, related to the prior point, Haaland has clearly helped boost these numbers in the past few years.

But Haaland’s incredible output still helps prove Scandinavia is producing quality centre-forwards. And this is the key point: it isn’t just him.

In the Premier League last season, three of the 10 top scorers were Scandinavian – and Haaland wasn’t even top among that trio, his 22 being one shy of Isak’s 23 but eight more than Jørgen Strand Larsen’s 14. Haaland missed a chunk of 2024-25 through injury, so it’s entirely reasonable to suggest Scandinavia’s collective goals figure could’ve been even greater. Alexander Sørloth deserves a mention, too, for plundering 20 goals for Atlético Madrid in La Liga last term.

Of course, Gyökeres’ figures aren’t taken into account for any of this either, as he wasn’t playing in one of the top five leagues last term. But it would be remiss of us not to mention he netted 39 times in the Primeira Liga for Sporting CP in 2024-25, more than double anyone else in the competition (Samu Aghehowa and Vangelis Pavlidis on 19 each). That saw him come second to Kylian Mbappé for the European Golden Boot.

To some perhaps more cynical individuals, it might sound a little sensationalist to concentrate on Scandinavia to such an extent simply because of the goals scored by a handful of players. But there were six Scandinavians across the top five European leagues who netted 10 or more top-flight goals in 2024-25 – that was the same number as Brazil and Italy (six each); it was just one fewer than England, while the only other countries to manage more were veritable football powerhouses: France (14), Spain (11) and Germany (8).

It was a similar story in 2023-24, when six different Scandinavians netted 10 or more goals in the top five European Leagues, putting the region behind only England (12), France, Germany (both 9) and Spain (7).

Obviously, this all must be taken with a pinch of salt. Someone might say that if we’re allowed to combine three countries under a single catch-all term, then I’m allowed to combine the Netherlands and Belgium”. Fair enough, but for everything that makes Norway, Sweden and Denmark unique, there are also very strong historical, economic and cultural ties that see them categorised together in many contexts. We haven’t just thought up the concept of ‘Scandinavia’ to fit some narrative.

The fact remains though, the three countries aren’t exactly the same, and that goes for the football too.

Artificial Intelligence

Andreas Georgson is now assistant to Thomas Frank at Tottenham but worked prominently in youth development in his native Sweden. He tells Opta Analyst: “I think with Denmark, it’s such a different case to Norway and Sweden. The academies and the youth development in Denmark were professional and good before Norway and Sweden, so they have a longer history of better youth development. The way Midtjylland, FC Copenhagen, Nordsjaelland have invested, it’s a completely different level.”

There’s also the difference in climate. While hardly tropical, Denmark is generally warmer, and for a long time, this would have provided a considerable advantage over swathes of Sweden and Norway with respect to player development.

“[In Denmark] football has been more of a year-round sport,” Georgson continues. “I would say, at least for Sweden, that it’s the last maybe 20-30 years that there’s been a boom of artificial pitches, which has made football become a year-round sport in a completely different way.”

Norway started taking a similar approach to playing surfaces in the 1990s, and by 2002, the Norwegian FA announced the country’s top division would permit the use of artificial pitches across the board, rather than just grant special dispensation to certain clubs in the north. Now, there are roughly 1,800 synthetic pitches across Norway.

“It doesn’t matter where you go, village to village, small area to small area, there’s normally one or two decent 3G or 4G pitches,” former Notts County and Forest Green Rovers manager Ian Burchnall tells Opta Analyst, looking back on his time in Norway while working for Sarpsborg and Viking. “The pitches are just open all the time, and it’s safe, so kids just go and play.”

It’s of course impossible to specifically look at these countries’ development of centre-forwards without taking a broader view of how players come through and the environments they’re playing in.

For instance, Burchnall – who also worked in Sweden with Östersund – expanded by highlighting what he perceived as greater “freedom” in Norwegian and Swedish youth football compared to in England, for example. “It’s player-driven, rather than coach-led coaching,” he said. “It’s less structured, and I mean that as a good thing.”

A similar perception came through in Georgson’s insights from his time in various youth-centric positions at Malmö, as he spoke with considerable pride about their academy becoming “really player-centred and development-minded”.

But there was still a balance to be found, he felt. It was still important to “create a [competitive] edge” while also embracing the traits and characteristics that Swedish players were typically known for already, such as “organisation, physical strength and team spirit”. Meanwhile, the country’s broader use of artificial pitches will have been automatically developing player technique even away from official training sessions due to their all-weather capabilities and the consistent, reliable nature of the playing surfaces. It’s also not unreasonable to suggest this influenced the type of player kids wanted to be.

“I think this last 20 years or so has managed to make sure [the players] are really skilful, really good on the attacking details of the game as well,” Georgson adds. “So, you combine all that good stuff from before with other qualities now, then also a really good 20 years of making their skill training and skill development way better – both in terms of quantity and quality of development – all year round.”

Outside of a few specific exceptions, Denmark hasn’t needed to rely on the additional infrastructure of artificial pitches to quite the same degree, however, and there’s an argument their football heritage was already underpinned by a stronger philosophical link to technical, attacking football.

The ‘Danish Dynamite’ of the 1980s attracted a cult following for their exciting, often chaotic, brand of football while reaching the semi-finals of Euro ‘84 and topping their group at the 1986 World Cup. Rob Smyth and Lars Eriksen, co-authors (with Mike Gibbons) of the book Danish Dynamite: The Story of Football’s Greatest Cult Team, described that Denmark side in the Guardian as being “like a fast-forwarded version of” the Netherlands side that brought us ‘Total Football’.

Denmark produced technical, quality footballers. And then, of course, they eventually went on to win Euro 1992 against all odds, albeit famously only qualifying in the first place because Yugoslavia were banned after the breakup of the country.

More to Football than Football

Of the three Scandinavian countries, Denmark might rank quite far behind in the eyes of many when considering the standard of centre-forwards currently available. That’s obviously not helped by the struggles of Rasmus Højlund at Manchester United last season.

However, it wasn’t so long ago that he was regarded as a striker of high potential, also fitting fairly close to that mould of the number nine with his considerable frame and physical stature; Kasper Dolberg and Jonas Wind have also led the line for Denmark in recent years.

Mika Biereth isn’t so dissimilar to Højlund in his build but appears to have better predatory skills in the penalty area, which helped him end the 2024-25 season as one of the most in-form strikers in Europe at Monaco (though we should point out he was born in London and came through the Fulham and Arsenal academies). So, while Denmark may not have someone quite at the standard of Haaland or Isak, they’re not short of reasonable options, and it’s likely that’ll remain the case.

“The 4-3-3 formation is very popular [in Denmark]; nearly every [Superliga] team plays 4-3-3, so that means there’s always one number nine with two wingers,” former Manchester City midfielder Uwe Rösler, who recently spent three years in charge at Danish side AGF and has coached all across Scandinavia, tells Opta Analyst. “There’s the different interpretations, but nearly every team has one number nine, so this is already a starting point and is probably also one explanation why number nines get produced [in Denmark].”

But it’s easy to forget there are other factors at play, factors that are completely separated from football but still have considerable influence.

First of all, there’s genetics. According to data from a 2020 study by the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration – a global network of health scientists – Danes are the fourth tallest people in the world on average. Swedes and Norwegians are also in the top 13, while the Nordics comes second to the Baltics when the results were combined for regions.

“The Danish population is tall, right? The players are much taller, and that is also benefiting the number nine position as well,” Rösler suggests. “But also, in this region of the world, the population gets good food, there’s a high standard of living.”

That’s the socio-economic factor. Granted, not everyone is wealthy in Scandinavia, but these countries are broadly considered economic role models for their high living standards coupled with low-income disparity, plus free education and healthcare. Some might even point to football and the proliferation of appropriate facilities as a reflection of the public services available in Norway and Sweden in particular.

While it’s obviously difficult to definitively prove if there’s anything truly behind Scandinavia’s effective production of centre-forwards, there’s certainly an argument it’s not a random occurrence.

“It’s no coincidence,” Rösler insists. “I think the whole model in terms of developing players in general [has a role], and also the fact that in the 4-3-3 you always have one number nine. And then they’re pretty consistent in Scandinavia to playing that system, especially in Denmark, from a young age, and there’s the fact that in Scandinavia people are genetically taller, which also benefits. When you can combine height with technique, mobility and running, then you come a long way.”

But there is a flipside.

The Case for the Defence

Even if it was widely accepted that the explosion of Scandinavian centre-forwards was coincidental, it is generally acknowledged that the way the football ecosystem has changed in some parts of the region has subsequently shaped the types of players coming through.

Even the Norwegian FA’s own head of player development, Håkon Grøttland, has alluded to this, telling NRK earlier this year that “everyone has, to put it bluntly, trained as if they were central midfielders, and there has been too little focus on, for example, what happens in the defensive box, what decides matches”.

Georgson comments that perhaps the “pendulum” swung too far the other way, though he does feel it’s important for work on technical ball skills to begin “earlier, with a big emphasis on them” as they “take longer to develop”.

Rösler, on the other hand, refers to the “artificial generation” – players who grew up on synthetic pitches as opposed to grass. The surface makes it a considerably different game, and so the players it’s developing aren’t the same as before.

“So, you play a lot into the feet, you never tackle, the physical part of the game goes a little bit out,” Rösler says. “The technical part of the game rises because you train under the same conditions. The ball is always rolling perfectly. You can practice a lot of touches.

“When I played in the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s, Norway had a lot of players in English football, especially defenders: Ronny Johnsen, Henning Berg, Erland Johnsen, for example, and now they’re not really producing that sort of defender anymore.”

A perceived dearth of high-potential defenders may also be exacerbated by the system. Generally speaking, defenders are substituted less often than forwards, meaning if you have an 18-year-old centre-back and an 18-year-old forward on the bench, the latter is probably likelier to feature and therefore get an opportunity to impress.

“Blooding strikers young comes with slightly less risk [compared to centre-backs],” Burchnall acknowledges. “Also, when strikers score goals at a young age, again, the asset value [can become] really high, whereas maybe you don’t get that exposure as a defender. So, I do think clubs have a vested interest in producing that sort of a talent.”

A Spanner in the Works

Rösler agrees that “selling is a major factor for playing players very early on”, and he firmly believes playing is the best way for any youngster to learn, make mistakes and improve. It’s the “biggest teacher,” he says.

“This is the big difference, that in other countries – like England – it’s a results business, so there is only one thing that matters: to win the matches. But in other [less financially powerful] leagues, it’s equally important to sell players each year.”

The Scandinavian leagues do, then, have a decent track record of providing young players with first-team opportunities. Since the start of the 2011-12 season, players under the age of 22 have accounted for 16.3% on average of the total minutes played by all players in a single campaign in the Swedish top flight.

In Norway, that average is 18.3%, while Denmark leads the way at 20.3%. To put these figures into context, over the same period, the Premier League averaged 8.0% of minutes attributed to players under the age of 22, Serie A was 8.9%, La Liga was 9.1%, the Bundesliga was 12.7% and Ligue 1 was up at 15.3%.

Curiously, the Swedish top tier actually had an older average starting XI age over the same period (26 years, 113 days) than the Bundesliga (25y, 346d) and Ligue 1 (26y, 226d), whereas the Norwegian (25y, 219d) and Danish (25y, 189d) leagues were well ahead of the big five.

But clearly there’s a greater reliance generally on these younger players, even if more from the bench in the case of Sweden – not that any of this should be seen as groundbreaking, of course. It’s not so surprising that the Premier League sees the smallest proportion of its minutes played by players under 22 years old because its standard is seen by many as the highest.

In the wider ecosystem of European football where money makes the world go round, the Scandinavian leagues just don’t have the same footing and it’s difficult to imagine that truly changing. But they appear to be getting better and better at exporting their talent, and it’s easy to see that having notable impacts on their national teams – in fact, you can probably argue it already is.

A lack of defenders could be problematic down the road, and another major hurdle on the horizon is the fact that the European Union will impose a ban in 2031 on the selling of the rubber, crumb-like infill that is used in many artificial pitches due to environmental and player safety concerns. It’s estimated that converting all pitches in Norway alone to a more sustainable infill will cost €560 million (£485m).

It’s not inconceivable that the outlay has a knock-on effect to investment in other areas of grassroots football. The hope is that their youth football institutions are now so established, their methods so ingrained, that they’re robust enough to cope with any potential disruptions.

Whatever happens, if their production lines of number nines keep producing the goods, their academies will continue to attract admiring glances from all across Europe.

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How Scandinavia Became the Centre-Forward Capital of Men’s Football Opta Analyst.

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