A repeat of the famous Euro 2022 semi-final beckons as Sweden look to avenge their humiliating 4-0 defeat to England from three years ago to progress to the Women’s Euro 2025 last four. We preview the clash with our Sweden vs England prediction.
Sweden vs England Stats: The Key Insights
England enter this Euro 2025 quarter-final as clear favourites, given a win probability of 49.4% in 90 minutes, while Sweden’s chances trail at 26.5%. Overall, the Opta supercomputer predicts that England will progress to the semi-finals in 61.1% of its 10,000 simulations. Sweden will look to extend the longest winning streak in their Euros history, having won all three group-stage games of the tournament. They have never won four consecutive matches in the competition. The most recent meeting between the pair at a major tournament saw Sweden suffer the largest ever semi-final defeat in Women’s Euros history (4-0 in 2022). That is their only defeat against England in the team’s last five European Championship meetings.After falling to a disappointing 2-1 defeat against France on Matchday 1 of Women’s Euro 2025, optimism that England would make serene progress to the knockout stages of the competition soured somewhat.
Yet just over a week later, the Lionesses have scored 10 in their last two games, and confidence that they can retain their European Championship trophy is growing. Their chances of progressing to the final are now as high as 43.2% according to the supercomputer across its latest simulations.
Go Deeper:
Women’s Euro 2025UEFA Women’s Euro 2025: Opta Supercomputer’s Knockout Predictions
10 hours ago Maya ShahThe stats undeniably show that England have been more defensively solid and more threatening going forwards in their last two games.
After conceding four big chances – a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score – against France, England limited Netherlands and Wales to just one each, facing only a combined three shots on target across those matches. Yes, the calibre of opposition may not have been as strong, but England’s defensive structure has significantly improved after their opening game.
They allowed France 30 touches in their box, but that figure dropped to 11 and seven against the Netherlands and Wales respectively, and that has clearly justified Sarina Wiegman’s decision to play Jess Carter as a centre-back, shifting Alex Greenwood to the left.
Both Sweden and England are two of three nations to have reached the quarter-final stage in all five major tournaments (Euros/World Cup) since Euro 2017.
With Thursday evening’s clash at the Stadium Letzigrund in Zurich looming, the questions remain: can England win just their second match in seven meetings against the Swedes or will the Blågult extend their strong record against England. The Lionesses have won just one of their last six meetings with Sweden across all competitions (D3 L2), with the most recent two ending in draws in qualification for UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 (1-1 home, 0-0 away).
Sweden are one of only two teams, along with Germany, to have knocked England out of the tournament twice (1984 final, 1987 semi-final).
After setting a new record outright in the competition, winning her 14th game in the Women’s Euros against Wales, Wiegman will look to extend her excellent current run against Sweden. She’s never lost against them as either manager of England or Netherlands, and that includes winning all three of her games against them at major tournaments.
The most impactful change Wiegman has made in the tournament to date was the decision to start Ella Toone in midfield. Toone didn’t start England’s opening-game defeat to France but came in for their subsequent two games.
This tactical shift pushed Lauren James out wide and saw Beth Mead drop to the bench, allowing the trio of Keira Walsh, Georgia Stanway, and Toone to operate more closely together, while better utilising James’ ability to glide past defenders out wide and deliver that killer blow. After England appeared overrun in midfield against France, Toone’s introduction brought balance and energy, enabling her to contribute effectively across all areas of the pitch.
Her goal and assist in England’s recent thumping of Wales means she has been directly involved in seven goals in nine games at the Women’s Euros, despite starting just two of those matches (4 goals, 3 assists).
Notably, the 25-year-old has scored four goals in her last three international starts, matching her total from her previous 29 appearances for the Lionesses. This surge in form suggests that, unlike Euro 2022 where she made her impact off the bench, Euro 2025 could truly be hers for taking when starting games.
Her recent displays see her rank joint first for goals and goal involvements among English players, and joint second for goal involvements among all players at Euro 2025 (4). Alessia Russo is also among the list of players with four goal involvements at Euro 2025.
Despite having just 13 shots against Germany, Sweden proved to be clinical in front of goal, with a conversion rate of 30.8% (4/13), and an expected goals (xG) total of 3.08.
By inflicting Germany’s heaviest defeat at a major competition (Euro/World Cup) since losing 4-0 in the 1991 World Cup, Sweden have now won all of their last eight group-stage matches at major competitions (Euros/World Cup) by a combined scoreline of 24-3, while they are unbeaten in their last nine (D1).
Kosovare Asllani has scored (1) or assisted (3) half of Sweden’s goals in the group stage of this year’s Women’s Euros (4/8). Since Opta have assist data available for major tournaments (Euros/World Cup from 2011), only Lotta Schelin at Euro 2013 (7) and Asllani herself at the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup (5) have recorded more goal involvements at a single edition of a major tournament for Sweden.
It’s also worth noting that 65% of Sweden’s chances created from open play at the Women’s Euro 2025 have come down their right-hand side, the highest proportion of any nation and they recorded the most open-play crosses during the group stage (61). Chelsea’s Johanna Rytting Kaneryd completed twice as many as any other player overall (8). Kaneryd has been the recipient of two Player of the Match awards already at this tournament.
Looking back at the pair’s meeting in the Euro 2022 semi-final, England utilised their left flank heavily to exploit Sweden (41.9% of their attacking play occurred in that third). That’s different from their current Euro 2025 performances, where they’ve tried to overload the right-hand side. Will the attacking prowess of James and Kaneryd down the flanks prove decisive again?
If the Lionesses are to stop Sweden winning a sixth consecutive international match, they must be at their absolute best in Zurich on Thursday.
Sweden vs England Prediction
England are predicted to triumph over Sweden according to the Opta supercomputer. Across its 10,000 pre-game simulations, England defeated the Swedes 61.1% of the time, with the Dutch winning 38.9% in contrast.
Playing at the same stadium as their 4-0 victory over the Netherlands on MD2 of Euro 2025, and 4-0 being a recent familiar scoreline in this fixture, the omens are there for England to secure a place in the final four.
Sweden vs England Squads
Sweden
Tove Enblom, Jennifer Falk, Emma Holmgren, Jonna Andersson, Nathalie Bjorn, Magdalena Eriksson, Smilla Holmberg, Amanda Ilestedt, Hanna Lunfkvist, Amanda Nilden, Linda Sembrant, Filippa Angeldahl, Hanna Bennison, Sofia Jakobsson, Madelen Janogy, Johanna Rytting Kaneryd, Julia Zigiotti Olme, Kosovare Asllani, Stina Blackstenius, Rebecka Blomqvist, Lina Hurtig, Fridolina Rolfo, Ellen Wangerheim.
Head Coach: Peter Gerhardsson
England
Hannah Hampton, Lucy Bronze, Niamh Charles, Keira Walsh, Alex Greenwood, Leah Williamson, Lauren James, Georgia Stanway, Beth Mead, Ella Toone, Lauren Hemp, Maya Le Tissier, Anna Moorhouse, Grace Clinton, Esme Morgan, Jess Carter, Michelle Agyemang, Chloe Kelly, Aggie Beever-Jones, Jess Park, Khiara Keating, Lotte Wubben-Moy, Alessia Russo.
Head Coach: Sarina Wiegman
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